Ice-dammed lateral lake and epishelf lake insights into Holocene dynamics of Margeurite Trough Ice Stream and George VI Ice Shelf, Alexander Island, Antarctic Peninsula

Funded by NERC grant NE/F0128961/1We present new data regarding the past dynamics of Marguerite Trough Ice Stream, George VI Ice Shelf and valley glaciers from Ablation Point Massif on Alexander Island, Antarctic Peninsula. This ice-free oasis preserves a geological record of ice stream lateral moraines, ice-dammed lakes, ice-shelf moraines and valley glacier moraines, which we dated using cosmogenic nuclide ages. We provide one of the first detailed sediment-landform assemblage descriptions of epishelf lake shorelines. Marguerite Trough Ice Stream imprinted lateral moraines against eastern Alexander Island at 120 m at Ablation Point Massif. During deglaciation, lateral lakes formed in the Ablation and Moutonn?e valleys, dammed against the ice stream in George VI Sound. Exposure ages from boulders on these shorelines yielded ages of 13.9 to 9.7 ka. Following recession of the ice stream, George VI Ice Shelf formed in George VI Sound. An epishelf lake formed at 15?20 m asl in Ablation and Moutonn?e valleys, dated from 9.4 to 4.6 ka, suggesting that the lake was stable and persistent for some 5000 years. Lake-level lowering occurred after this, with the lake level at 12 m at 3.1 ? 0.4 ka and at 5 m asl today. A readvance of the valley glaciers on Alexander Island at 4.4 ? 0.7 ka is recorded by valley glacier moraines overlying epishelf lake sediments. We speculate that the glacier readvance, which occurred during a period of warmth, may have been caused by a dynamic response of the glaciers to a lowering in surface elevation of George VI Ice ShelfpublishersversionPeer reviewe

Short-term occupations at high elevation during the Middle Paleolithic at Kalavan 2 (Republic of Armenia)

The Armenian highlands encompasses rugged and environmentally diverse landscapes and is characterized by a mosaic of distinct ecological niches and large temperature gradients. Strong seasonal fluctuations in resource availability along topographic gradients likely prompted Pleistocene hominin groups to adapt by adjusting their mobility strategies. However, the role that elevated landscapes played in hunter-gatherer settlement systems during the Late Pleistocene (Middle Palaeolithic [MP]) remains poorly understood. At 1640 m above sea level, the MP site of Kalavan 2 (Armenia) is ideally positioned for testing hypotheses involving elevation-dependent seasonal mobility and subsistence strategies. Renewed excavations at Kalavan 2 exposed three main occupation horizons and ten additional low densities lithic and faunal assemblages. The results provide a new chronological, stratigraphical, and paleoenvironmental framework for hominin behaviors between ca. 60 to 45 ka. The evidence presented suggests that the stratified occupations at Kalavan 2 locale were repeated ephemerally most likely related to hunting in a high-elevation within the mountainous steppe landscape.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Emerging IT risks: insights from German banking

How do German banks manage the emerging risks stemming from IT innovations such as cyber risk? With a focus on process, roles and responsibilities, field data from ten banks participating in the 2014 ECB stress test were collected by interviewing IT managers, risk managers and external experts. Current procedures for handling emerging risks in German banks were identified from the interviews and analysed, guided by the extant literature. A clear gap was found between enterprise risk management (ERM) as a general approach to risks threatening firms’ objectives and ERM’s neglect of emerging risks, such as those associated with IT innovations. The findings suggest that ERM should be extended towards the collection and sharing of knowledge to allow for an initial understanding and description of emerging risks, as opposed to the traditional ERM approach involving estimates of impact and probability. For example, as cyber risks emerge from an IT innovation, the focus may need to switch towards reducing uncertainty through knowledge acquisition. Since individual managers seldom possess all relevant knowledge of an IT innovation, various stakeholders may need to be involved to exploit their expertise

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003–2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993–2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread

The RESET project: constructing a European tephra lattice for refined synchronisation of environmental and archaeological events during the last c. 100 ka

This paper introduces the aims and scope of the RESET project (. RESponse of humans to abrupt Environmental Transitions), a programme of research funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (UK) between 2008 and 2013; it also provides the context and rationale for papers included in a special volume of Quaternary Science Reviews that report some of the project's findings. RESET examined the chronological and correlation methods employed to establish causal links between the timing of abrupt environmental transitions (AETs) on the one hand, and of human dispersal and development on the other, with a focus on the Middle and Upper Palaeolithic periods. The period of interest is the Last Glacial cycle and the early Holocene (c. 100-8 ka), during which time a number of pronounced AETs occurred. A long-running topic of debate is the degree to which human history in Europe and the Mediterranean region during the Palaeolithic was shaped by these AETs, but this has proved difficult to assess because of poor dating control. In an attempt to move the science forward, RESET examined the potential that tephra isochrons, and in particular non-visible ash layers (cryptotephras), might offer for synchronising palaeo-records with a greater degree of finesse. New tephrostratigraphical data generated by the project augment previously-established tephra frameworks for the region, and underpin a more evolved tephra 'lattice' that links palaeo-records between Greenland, the European mainland, sub-marine sequences in the Mediterranean and North Africa. The paper also outlines the significance of other contributions to this special volume: collectively, these illustrate how the lattice was constructed, how it links with cognate tephra research in Europe and elsewhere, and how the evidence of tephra isochrons is beginning to challenge long-held views about the impacts of environmental change on humans during the Palaeolithic. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.RESET was funded through Consortium Grants awarded by the Natural Environment Research Council, UK, to a collaborating team drawn from four institutions: Royal Holloway University of London (grant reference NE/E015905/1), the Natural History Museum, London (NE/E015913/1), Oxford University (NE/E015670/1) and the University of Southampton, including the National Oceanography Centre (NE/01531X/1). The authors also wish to record their deep gratitude to four members of the scientific community who formed a consultative advisory panel during the lifetime of the RESET project: Professor Barbara Wohlfarth (Stockholm University), Professor Jørgen Peder Steffensen (Niels Bohr Institute, Copenhagen), Dr. Martin Street (Romisch-Germanisches Zentralmuseum, Neuwied) and Professor Clive Oppenheimer (Cambridge University). They provided excellent advice at key stages of the work, which we greatly valued. We also thank Jenny Kynaston (Geography Department, Royal Holloway) for construction of several of the figures in this paper, and Debbie Barrett (Elsevier) and Colin Murray Wallace (Editor-in-Chief, QSR) for their considerable assistance in the production of this special volume.Peer Reviewe

Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction

Weather and climate variations of subseasonal to decadal timescales can have enormous social, economic and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these timescales a valuable tool for decision makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) timescales, while the focus remains broadly similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper ocean temperatures and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal and externally-forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correct, calibration and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Prograame (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis