Signal and noise in regime systems: a hypothesis on the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Studies conducted by the UK Met Office reported significant skill at predicting the winter NAO index with their seasonal prediction system. At the same time, a very low signal-to-noise ratio was observed, as measured using the `ratio of predictable components' (RPC) metric. We analyse both the skill and signal-to-noise ratio using a new statistical toy-model which assumes NAO predictability is driven by regime dynamics. It is shown that if the system is approximately bimodal in nature, with the model consistently underestimating the level of regime persistence each season, then both the high skill and high RPC value of the Met Office hindcasts can easily be reproduced. Underestimation of regime persistence could be attributable to any number of sources of model error, including imperfect regime structure or errors in the propagation of teleconnections. In particular, a high RPC value for a seasonal mean prediction may be expected even if the models internal level of noise is realistic.Comment: Published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2019

The impact of stochastic physics on climate sensitivity in EC-Earth

Stochastic schemes, designed to represent unresolved sub-grid scale variability, are frequently used in short and medium-range weather forecasts, where they are found to improve several aspects of the model. In recent years, the impact of stochastic physics has also been found to be beneficial for the model's long term climate. In this paper, we demonstrate for the first time that the inclusion of a stochastic physics scheme can notably affect a model's projection of global warming, as well as its historical climatological global temperature. Specifically, we find that when including the 'stochastically perturbed parametrisation tendencies' scheme (SPPT) in the fully coupled climate model EC-Earth v3.1, the predicted level of global warming between 1850 and 2100 is reduced by 10% under an RCP8.5 forcing scenario. We link this reduction in climate sensitivity to a change in the cloud feedbacks with SPPT. In particular, the scheme appears to reduce the positive low cloud cover feedback, and increase the negative cloud optical feedback. A key role is played by a robust, rapid increase in cloud liquid water with SPPT, which we speculate is due to the scheme's non-linear interaction with condensation.Comment: Under review in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere

Why Business As Usual Is No Longer Possible

This paper shares samples of eight major trends that either threaten the ministries or provide open doors of opportunities.https://digitalcommons.andrews.edu/hrsa/1034/thumbnail.jp

Changing Rural Communities: An Exploration of Older Adults' Experiences

This research was designed to better understand the perceptions and experiences of older adults who live in small towns and rural areas. In this qualitative study, 13 individuals were interviewed to gain an in-depth understanding of their experiences related to aging, community change, and well-being. Participants ranged in age from 69 to 90. Two articles report the results of this research in Chapters Three and Four. The first article presents the themes that reflect the participants' perceptions of living in changing communities. Data analysis revealed five themes: elders were saddened by losses in their community but were resigned to accept them; diversity among the rural communities affected views about community; dwindling social networks and opportunities left elders feeling isolated and lonely; attachment to place was strong, and commitment to stay on despite concerns for the future. The second article focuses on the daily life experiences, challenges, and strategies of older adults living in rural communities. Four key themes emerged from participants' responses about their lived experiences in communities that have undergone long-term changes: social interactions were limited; sense of social connectedness had weakened; daily life experiences depended on community and individual characteristics; and elders sought to manage challenges. Overall, there was a strong desire to remain in rural areas in spite of challenging conditions, with attachment to place being a factor contributing to the commitment to age in place. Daily experiences and challenges for participants were influenced by both community and individual characteristics. Person-environment relationships served as environmental comfort, maintenance, or distress for rural elders. Participants expressed disappointment in the deteriorating social interactions and social connections in their communities, resulting in feelings of isolation and loneliness. Future research should include a closer examination of the environmental characteristics that serve as resources or stressors for rural elders and of the personal competencies that help older adults adapt to changing environments and manage their lives effectively. These studies help identify specific environmental and personal characteristics that either promote or hinder well-being for elderly living in rural communities

Evaluation of the Business and Leadership Components of a Registered Nursing to Bachelor of Science in Nursing Program

This applied dissertation was designed to evaluate the business and leadership components of a Registered Nursing (RN) to Bachelor of Science in Nursing (BSN) program at the university. The problem was that an evaluation of the present RN-to-BSN curriculum had not been conducted since 2006 to determine if the best practices in business and leadership were current, applicable, and relevant in the current RN-to-BSN curriculum. The researcher utilized an evaluation methodology to assess the business and leadership components of an RN-to-BSN nursing program. An evaluation tool was developed and used to compare expected outcomes (criteria) of current practices to expected outcomes (criteria) of best practices in the field of nursing. The expected outcomes (criteria) of current best practices were developed from a review of the literature, data collected from RN-to-BSN alumni students, and input from formative and summative committees. Thirteen specific procedures guided the study to assess the value, merit, and worth of the program and to answer six research questions. The final evaluation by the expert panel revealed that the current best practices in business and leadership taught in Nursing 4020 and Nursing 4030 courses were not current with preferred best practices. The final report recommended updating the courses with current best practices collected from the literature, formative and summative committee members, practicing RNs, and experts in the nursing profession