Bassenthwaite Lake: a general assessment of environmental and biological features and their susceptibility to change

Bassenthwaite (Lake) is one of the larger Cumbrian lakes, certainly one of the most distinctive, and of considerable conservation and amenity value. Although its shores lack sizeable settlements, its main inflow receives sewage effluent from a major tourist centre (Keswick) and is subject to episodic floods. These influences, the growing development of leisure activities at the lake (e.g. sailing, time-share units), and recent road-construction, have led to past appraisals of ecological impacts and lake management. The lake has not been the subject of intense and long-term ecological study, but much scattered information exists that is relevant to future management decisions. In the present Report, commissioned by North West Water, such information - published and unpublished - is surveyed. Especial attention is given to evidence bearing on susceptibility to change, affecting the lake environment and its biota or species of conservation interest. Extensive use has been made of the results of a recent (1986-7) seasonal survey by the FBA

Persistent low-level variants in a subset of viral genes are highly predictive of poor outcome in immunocompromised patients with cytomegalovirus infection

ABSTRACT Background Human cytomegalovirus is the most common and serious opportunistic infection after solid organ and haematopoietic stem cell transplantation. In this study, we used whole-genome cytomegalovirus data to investigate viral factors associated with the clinical outcome. Methods We sequenced cytomegalovirus samples from 16 immunocompromised paediatric patients with persistent viraemia. 8/16 patients died of complications due to cytomegalovirus infection. We also sequenced samples from 35 infected solid organ adult recipients of whom one died with cytomegalovirus infection. Results We showed that samples from both groups have fixed variants at resistance sites and mixed infections. NGS sequencing also revealed non-fixed variants at resistance sites in most of the patients who died (6/9). A machine learning approach identified 10 genes with non-fixed variants in these patients. These genes formed a viral signature which discriminated patients with cytomegalovirus infection who died from those that survived with high accuracy (AUC=0.96). Lymphocyte numbers for a subset of patients showed no recovery post-transplant in the patients who died. Conclusions We hypothesise that the viral signature identified in this study may be a useful biomarker for poor response to antiviral drug treatment and indirectly for poor T cell function, potentially identifying early, those patients requiring non-pharmacological interventions

Information for decision making from imperfect national data: tracking major changes in health care use in Kenya using geostatistics

Background: most Ministries of Health across Africa invest substantial resources in some form of health management information system (HMIS) to coordinate the routine acquisition and compilation of monthly treatment and attendance records from health facilities nationwide. Despite the expense of these systems, poor data coverage means they are rarely, if ever, used to generate reliable evidence for decision makers. One critical weakness across Africa is the current lack of capacity to effectively monitor patterns of service use through time so that the impacts ofchanges in policy or service delivery can be evaluated. Here, we present a new approach that, for the first time, allows national changes in health service use during a time of major health policy change to be tracked reliably using imperfect data from a national HMIS.Methods: monthly attendance records were obtained from the Kenyan HMIS for 1 271 government-run and 402 faith-based outpatient facilities nationwide between 1996 and 2004. Aspace-time geostatistical model was used to compensate for the large proportion of missing records caused by non-reporting health facilities, allowing robust estimation of monthly and annualuse of services by outpatients during this period.Results: we were able to reconstruct robust time series of mean levels of outpatient utilisation of health facilities at the national level and for all six major provinces in Kenya. These plots revealed reliably for the first time a period of steady nationwide decline in the use of health facilities in Kenyabetween 1996 and 2002, followed by a dramatic increase from 2003. This pattern was consistent across different causes of attendance and was observed independently in each province.Conclusion: the methodological approach presented can compensate for missing records in health information systems to provide robust estimates of national patterns of outpatient service use. This represents the first such use of HMIS data and contributes to the resurrection of these hugely expensive but underused systems as national monitoring tools. Applying this approach to Kenya has yielded output with immediate potential to enhance the capacity of decision makers in monitoring nationwide patterns of service use and assessing the impact of changes in health policy and service deliver

A general assessment of environmental and biological features of Windermere and their susceptibility to change

Bassenthwaite (Lake) is one of the larger Cumbrian lakes, certainly one of the most distinctive, and of considerable conservation and amenity value. Although its shores lack sizeable settlements, its main inflow receives sewage effluent from a major tourist centre (Keswick) and is subject to episodic floods. These influences, the growing development of leisure activities at the lake (e.g. sailing, time-share units), and recent road-construction, have led to past appraisals of ecological impacts and lake management. The lake has not been the subject of intense and long-term ecological study, but much scattered information exists that is relevant to future management decisions. In the present Report, commissioned by North West Water, such information - published and unpublished - is surveyed. Especial attention is given to evidence bearing on susceptibility to change, affecting the lake environment and its biota or species of conservation interest. Extensive use has been made of the results of a recent (1986-7) seasonal survey by the FBA

Space discontinuous Galerkin method for shallow water flows - kinetic and HLLC flux, and potential vorticity generation

In this paper, a second order space discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method is presented for the numerical solution of inviscid shallow water flows over varying bottom topography. Novel in the implementation is the use of HLLC and kinetic numerical fluxes in combination with a dissipation operator, applied only locally around discontinuities to limit spurious numerical oscillations. Numerical solutions over (non-)uniform meshes are verified against exact solutions; the numerical error in the $L_2$-norm and the convergence of the solution are computed. Bore-vortex interactions are studied analytically and numerically to validate the model; these include bores as "breaking waves'' in a channel and a bore traveling over a conical and Gaussian hump. In these complex numerical test cases, we correctly predict the generation of potential vorticity by non-uniform bores. Finally, we successfully validate the numerical model against measurements of steady oblique hydraulic jumps in a channel with a contraction. In the latter case, the kinetic flux is shown to be more robust

Strong Decays of Strange Quarkonia

In this paper we evaluate strong decay amplitudes and partial widths of strange mesons (strangeonia and kaonia) in the 3P0 decay model. We give numerical results for all energetically allowed open-flavor two-body decay modes of all nsbar and ssbar strange mesons in the 1S, 2S, 3S, 1P, 2P, 1D and 1F multiplets, comprising strong decays of a total of 43 resonances into 525 two-body modes, with 891 numerically evaluated amplitudes. This set of resonances includes all strange qqbar states with allowed strong decays expected in the quark model up to ca. 2.2 GeV. We use standard nonrelativistic quark model SHO wavefunctions to evaluate these amplitudes, and quote numerical results for all amplitudes present in each decay mode. We also discuss the status of the associated experimental candidates, and note which states and decay modes would be especially interesting for future experimental study at hadronic, e+e- and photoproduction facilities. These results should also be useful in distinguishing conventional quark model mesons from exotica such as glueballs and hybrids through their strong decays.Comment: 69 pages, 5 figures, 39 table

At what scale should we assess the health of pelagic habitats? Trade-offs between small-scale manageable pressures and the need for regional upscaling

Publication history: Accepted - 26 June 2023; Published online - 13 July 2023.Major planktonic lifeforms such as diatoms, dinoflagellates, meroplankton and holoplankton have recently shown significant and alarming changes in abundance - mainly downwards trends - around the northwest European shelf. This has major implications for food web connections and for ecosystem services including seafood provision and carbon storage. We have quantified these changes in abundance for 2006–2019/20 using a Plankton Index (PI) and show that the scale of spatial aggregation is critical to the ability of the PI to detect change, understand causal mechanisms, and provide advice to policymakers. We derived PI statistics in the Celtic and North Seas from data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey offshore and England’s Environment Agency inshore using three sets of spatial units: (i) Ecohydrodynamic (EHD) units based on hydro-biogeochemical modelling, (ii) ‘COMP4′ areas based on cluster analysis of satellite data for chlorophyll a and primary productivity, and (iii) English coastal and estuarine Water Framework Directive (WFD) waterbodies. For the largest scale areas, the EHD units (median size 87,000 km2), we find greater change in plankton communities than previously reported, suggesting that these shifts have continued and possibly intensified in recent years. The smaller-scale COMP4 areas (median size 6,700 km2) appear to encompass more spatially coherent changes in plankton community structure than EHD units; at this scale PI values indicate community shifts of greater magnitude. These COMP4 areas provide a reasonable compromise scale for linking offshore plankton communities to large-scale drivers of change such as climate warming. For inshore plankton communities, larger changes are detected at the smaller WFD waterbody scale (median size 11 km2). This scale allows direct links to coastal management measures and is more suitable for linking to land-sourced pressures. Recent integration of the UK’s OSPAR and WFD plankton monitoring data management enables the exploration of changes across spatial scales to develop a holistic understanding of ecosystem health. Regional-sea scale derivation of the PI for coastal waters provides a clear indication that changes are occurring, at least in phytoplankton communities, while localised PI statistics offer an additional layer of information which can be an important tool for linking to localised drivers of change including coastal anthropogenic pressures. Broadscale inshore zooplankton monitoring is needed to evaluate the coastal plankton community holistically; zooplankton communities offshore are also changing but these changes cannot currently be linked to coastal processes. Layering information across spatial scales provides a breadth of system-level understanding beyond what any one typology can provide.This work was supported by the Defra/HBDSEG project ME414135 ‘DDIPA: Next-level pelagic habitat analysis: Making use of improved data flows to Delve Deeper into Integrated UK Plankton Assessment’, and Cefas’ Environment and People science theme. AA’s contribution was also funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through its National Capability Long-term Single Centre Science Programme, Climate Linked Atlantic Sector Science, grant number NE/R015953/1, contributing to Theme 3.1—Biological dynamics in a changing Atlantic. EB and MM were additionally supported by the Scottish Government’s Schedule of Service ST02GH

Mapping the Birch and Grass Pollen Seasons in the UK Using Satellite Sensor Time-series

Grass and birch pollen are two major causes of seasonal allergic rhinitis (hay fever) in the UK and parts of Europe affecting around 15-20% of the population. Current prediction of these allergens in the UK is based on (i) measurements of pollen concentrations at a limited number of monitoring stations across the country and (ii) general information about the phenological status of the vegetation. Thus, the current prediction methodology provides information at a coarse spatial resolution only. Most station-based approaches take into account only local observations of flowering, while only a small number of approaches take into account remote observations of land surface phenology. The systematic gathering of detailed information about vegetation status nationwide would therefore be of great potential utility. In particular, there exists an opportunity to use remote sensing to estimate phenological variables that are related to the flowering phenophase and, thus, pollen release. In turn, these estimates can be used to predict pollen release at a fine spatial resolution. In this study, time-series of MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (MTCI) data were used to predict two key phenological variables: the start of season and peak of season. A technique was then developed to estimate the flowering phenophase of birch and grass from the MTCI time-series. For birch, the timing of flowering was defined as the time after the start of the growing season when the MTCI value reached 25% of the maximum. Similarly, for grass this was defined as the time when the MTCI value reached 75% of the maximum. The predicted pollen release dates were validated with data from nine pollen monitoring stations in the UK. For both birch and grass, we obtained large positive correlations between the MTCI-derived start of pollen season and the start of the pollen season defined using station data, with a slightly larger correlation observed for birch than for grass. The technique was applied to produce detailed maps for the flowering of birch and grass across the UK for each of the years from 2003 to 2010. The results demonstrate that the remote sensing-based maps of onset flowering of birch and grass for the UK together with the pollen forecast from the Meteorology Office and National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit (NPARU) can potentially provide more accurate information to pollen allergy sufferers in the UK

Impact of “Grain to Green” Programme on echinococcosis infection in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China

Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is endemic among the human population of Xiji County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China, where the prevalence is estimated to be between 2.2% and 3.6%. Government-run sheep abattoirs in Xiji County have closed in recent years and, as a consequence, slaughter is carried out mostly at rural market places. The market place in Xinglong Township, Xiji County, is home to an increasing number of stray dogs and the lack of government control over slaughter practices potentially favours Echinococcus granulosus transmission. A survey of sheep, goats and cattle reared in Xiji County was conducted in Xinglong Market and Xinglong Township to determine prevalence and transmission dynamics of E. granulosus infection. The liver and lungs of all livestock aged one year and older were examined macroscopically post mortem; visual examination and palpation of organs determined overall prevalence of E. granulosus. Cysts consistent in appearance with E. granulosus were observed in 2/184 sheep (prevalence 1.0%) and 1/55 of the cattle examined (prevalence 1.8%); 0/13 goats were found to be infected. However, microscopic examination of these suspected cysts failed to confirm these samples as E. granulosus, giving a prevalence of confirmed infection of zero percent in all three species. The prevalence of liver fluke was 61.3% in sheep and 12.7% in cattle with a significant difference between males and females (p ≤ 0.001). Considering the high prevalence of echinococcosis in the local human population, the absence of CE observed among commercially slaughtered livestock was surprising. Several explanations for this discrepancy and their implications are proposed.The study was supported by funds of NNSFC, China (30960339), NHMRC, Australia (APP1009539). DJG is an Australian Research Council Fellow (DECRA); ACAC is NHMRC Senior Research Fellow; DPM is NHMRC Senior Principal Research Fellow; YRY is Griffith University Research Fellow

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results