Numerical Modeling of the Thermal Behavior of Corrosion on Reinforced Concrete

The bars in the concrete require a regular and permanent control in order to avoid the risks caused by the corrosion. In this work we present a thermal method of non destructive testing of the structures, based on numerical modeling in three dimensions. The goal is to study the detectability and the behavior of rust in the steel in transient mode by using a thermal characterization. The model of a parallelepipedic structure of concrete containing armatures of cylindrical form is adopted. This structure is supposed to be excited in the higher face by a heat flux, the lower face being maintained at constant temperature and the others faces are supposed thermically isolated. Keyword: corrosion, rust, bars, infra-red thermography, finite element

Evolution climatique et canicule en milieu urbain : apport de la télédétection à l'anticipation et à la gestion de l'impact sanitaire

rapport finalSummer warming trends in Western Europe are increasing the incidence, intensity and duration of heat waves. These are especially deadly in cities owing to surface properties, anthropogenic heat and pollutants. In August 2003, for nine consecutive days, the Paris metropolitan area experienced an extreme heat wave that caused 4,867 heatrelated deaths. A time series of 84 satellite thermal images, from July 21 to August 21 2003 was used to analyze surface temperature variations and the associated heat stress. Satellite observations indicate significant surface temperature gradients and contrasted daytime / nighttime urban heat island patterns. The relatively small temperature amplitude in reference to a normal summer confirms the impact of high minimum temperatures on the heat wave process, lack of nighttime relief and on the subsequent heat stress and mortality. Maps of temperature thresholds and areas most vulnerable to heat stress were delineated. Thermal indices were produced at the addresses of 482 case studies and were integrated into a regression model to estimate the risk factors of mortality for elderly people during the heat wave. Thermal indices for minimum, maximum, mean surface temperatures and diurnal amplitude were tested on the day of death and 1, 2, 6 or 13 days preceding. Results from the linear regression analysis were statistically significant for minimum temperatures. For an increase of 0.5°C, the death risk can be twice as high. A summertime satellite surveillance is being developed to inform the public and authorities about extreme surface temperatures and related heat stress. This analysis demonstrates the relevance of satellite remote sensing in monitoring heat waves in megacities, in estimating the health impact and implementing alert systems and public health strategies

The Impact of Heat Islands on Mortality in Paris during the August 2003 Heat Wave

Background: Heat waves have a drastic impact on urban populations, which could increase with climate change

Overview of existing heat-health warning systems in Europe

The frequency of extreme heat events, such as the summer of 2003 in Europe, and their corresponding consequences for human beings are expected to increase under a warmer climate. The joint collaboration of institutional agencies and multidisciplinary approaches is essential for a successful development of heat-health warning systems and action plans which can reduce the impacts of extreme heat on the population. The present work constitutes a state-of-the-art review of 16 European heat-health warning systems and heat-health action plans, based on the existing literature, web search (over the National Meteorological Services websites) and questionnaires. The aim of this study is to pave the way for future heat-health warning systems, such as the one currently under development in the framework of the Horizon 2020 HEAT-SHIELD project. Some aspects are highlighted among the variety of examined European warning systems. The meteorological variables that trigger the warnings should present a clear link with the impact under consideration and should be chosen depending on the purpose and target of the warnings. Setting long-term planning actions as well as pre-alert levels might prevent and reduce damages due to heat. Finally, education and communication are key elements of the success of a warning systemFinancial support for this work is provided by the HEAT-SHIELD Project (HORIZON 2020, research and innovation programme under the grant agreement 668786)

Towards a threshold climate for emergency lower respiratory hospital admissions

Identification of ‘cut-points’ or thresholds of climate factors would play a crucial role in alerting risks of climate change and providing guidance to policymakers. This study investigated a ‘Climate Threshold’ for emergency hospital admissions of chronic lower respiratory diseases by using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We analysed a unique longitudinal dataset (10 years, 2000–2009) on emergency hospital admissions, climate, and pollution factors for the Greater London. Our study extends existing work on this topic by considering non-linearity, lag effects between climate factors and disease exposure within the DLNM model considering B-spline as smoothing technique. The final model also considered natural cubic splines of time since exposure and ‘day of the week’ as confounding factors. The results of DLNM indicated a significant improvement in model fitting compared to a typical GLM model. The final model identified the thresholds of several climate factors including: high temperature (≥≥27 °C), low relative humidity (≤≤ 40%), high Pm10 level (≥≥70-µg/m3), low wind speed (≤≤ 2 knots) and high rainfall (≥≥30 mm). Beyond the threshold values, a significantly higher number of emergency admissions due to lower respiratory problems would be expected within the following 2–3 days after the climate shift in the Greater London. The approach will be useful to initiate ‘region and disease specific’ climate mitigation plans. It will help identify spatial hot spots and the most sensitive areas and population due to climate change, and will eventually lead towards a diversified health warning system tailored to specific climate zones and populations

Ragweed as an Example of Worldwide Allergen Expansion

<p/> <p>Multiple factors are contributing to the expansion of ragweed on a worldwide scale. This review seeks to examine factors that may contribute to allergen expansion with reference to ragweed as a well-studied example. It is our hope that increased surveillance for new pollens in areas not previously affected and awareness of the influence the changing environment plays in allergic disease will lead to better outcomes in susceptible patients.</p

Syndromic surveillance and heat wave morbidity: a pilot study based on emergency departments in France

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The health impacts of heat waves are serious and have prompted the development of heat wave response plans. Even when they are efficient, these plans are developed to limit the health effects of heat waves. This study was designed to determine relevant indicators related to health effects of heat waves and to evaluate the ability of a syndromic surveillance system to monitor variations in the activity of emergency departments over time. The study uses data collected during the summer 2006 when a new heat wave occurred in France.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data recorded from 49 emergency departments since July 2004, were transmitted daily via the Internet to the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance. Items collected on patients included diagnosis (ICD10 codes), outcome, and age. Statistical t-tests were used to compare, for several health conditions, the daily averages of patients within different age groups and periods (whether 'on alert' or 'off alert').</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A limited number of adverse health conditions occurred more frequently during hot period: dehydration, hyperthermia, malaise, hyponatremia, renal colic, and renal failure. Over all health conditions, the total number of patients per day remained equal between the 'on alert' and 'off alert' periods (4,557.7/day vs. 4,511.2/day), but the number of elderly patients increased significantly during the 'on alert' period relative to the 'off alert' period (476.7/day vs. 446.2/day p < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results show the interest to monitor specific indicators during hot periods and to focus surveillance efforts on the elderly. Syndromic surveillance allowed the collection of data in real time and the subsequent optimization of the response by public health agencies. This method of surveillance should therefore be considered as an essential part of efforts to prevent the health effects of heat waves.</p

Changes in Present and Future Circulation Types Frequency in Northwest Iberian Peninsula

The aim of the work described herein was to study projection scenarios in order to find changes in the synoptic variability of the northwest Iberian Peninsula in the 21st century. To this end, we investigated the changes in the frequency of the different circulation types computed for the study area using three different models used in the IPCC 4th assessment report. The circulation types were computed using the procedure known as Lamb circulation types. The control simulation for the late 20th century was evaluated objectively from the results obtained using data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, as to evaluate the ability of the model to reproduce the present climate. We have compared not only seasonal mean sea level pressure fields but also the mean seasonal frequency of circulation types. The results for the end of the 21st century show a decrease in the frequency of cyclonic, W, and SW circulation types in the spring and summer months. This trend also appears in the autumn, with a concomitant increase in the anticyclonic types

Mapping the Birch and Grass Pollen Seasons in the UK Using Satellite Sensor Time-series

Grass and birch pollen are two major causes of seasonal allergic rhinitis (hay fever) in the UK and parts of Europe affecting around 15-20% of the population. Current prediction of these allergens in the UK is based on (i) measurements of pollen concentrations at a limited number of monitoring stations across the country and (ii) general information about the phenological status of the vegetation. Thus, the current prediction methodology provides information at a coarse spatial resolution only. Most station-based approaches take into account only local observations of flowering, while only a small number of approaches take into account remote observations of land surface phenology. The systematic gathering of detailed information about vegetation status nationwide would therefore be of great potential utility. In particular, there exists an opportunity to use remote sensing to estimate phenological variables that are related to the flowering phenophase and, thus, pollen release. In turn, these estimates can be used to predict pollen release at a fine spatial resolution. In this study, time-series of MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (MTCI) data were used to predict two key phenological variables: the start of season and peak of season. A technique was then developed to estimate the flowering phenophase of birch and grass from the MTCI time-series. For birch, the timing of flowering was defined as the time after the start of the growing season when the MTCI value reached 25% of the maximum. Similarly, for grass this was defined as the time when the MTCI value reached 75% of the maximum. The predicted pollen release dates were validated with data from nine pollen monitoring stations in the UK. For both birch and grass, we obtained large positive correlations between the MTCI-derived start of pollen season and the start of the pollen season defined using station data, with a slightly larger correlation observed for birch than for grass. The technique was applied to produce detailed maps for the flowering of birch and grass across the UK for each of the years from 2003 to 2010. The results demonstrate that the remote sensing-based maps of onset flowering of birch and grass for the UK together with the pollen forecast from the Meteorology Office and National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit (NPARU) can potentially provide more accurate information to pollen allergy sufferers in the UK

Whether weather matters: Evidence of association between in utero meteorological exposures and foetal growth among Indigenous and non-Indigenous mothers in rural Uganda

Pregnancy and birth outcomes have been found to be sensitive to meteorological variation, yet few studies explore this relationship in sub-Saharan Africa where infant mortality rates are the highest in the world. We address this research gap by examining the association between meteorological factors and birth weight in a rural population in southwestern Uganda. Our study included hospital birth records (n = 3197) from 2012 to 2015, for which we extracted meteorological exposure data for the three trimesters preceding each birth. We used linear regression, controlling for key covariates, to estimate the timing, strength, and direction of meteorological effects on birth weight. Our results indicated that precipitation during the third trimester had a positive association with birth weight, with more frequent days of precipitation associated with higher birth weight: we observed a 3.1g (95% CI: 1.0–5.3g) increase in birth weight per additional day of exposure to rainfall over 5mm. Increases in average daily temperature during the third trimester were also associated with birth weight, with an increase of 41.8g (95% CI: 0.6–82.9g) per additional degree Celsius. When the sample was stratified by season of birth, only infants born between June and November experienced a significant associated between meteorological exposures and birth weight. The association of meteorological variation with foetal growth seemed to differ by ethnicity; effect sizes of meteorological were greater among an Indigenous subset of the population, in particular for variation in temperature. Effects in all populations in this study are higher than estimates of the African continental average, highlighting the heterogeneity in the vulnerability of infant health to meteorological variation in different contexts. Our results indicate that while there is an association between meteorological variation and birth weight, the magnitude of these associations may vary across ethnic groups with differential socioeconomic resources, with implications for interventions to reduce these gradients and offset the health impacts predicted under climate change