The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe

We present here a dynamical method for modelling temporal and geographical variations in ammonia emissions in regional-scale chemistry transport models (CTMs) and chemistry climate models (CCMs). The method is based on the meteorology in the models and gridded inventories. We use the dynamical method to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of ammonia emissions across part of Europe and study how these emissions are related to geographical and year-to-year variations in atmospheric temperature alone. For simplicity we focus on the emission from a storage facility related to a standard Danish pig stable with 1000 animals and display how emissions from this source would vary geographically throughout central and northern Europe and from year to year. In view of future climate changes, we also evaluate the potential future changes in emission by including temperature projections from an ensemble of climate models. The results point towards four overall issues. (1) Emissions can easily vary by 20% for different geographical locations within a country due to overall variations in climate. The largest uncertainties are seen for large countries such as the UK, Germany and France. (2)Annual variations in overall climate can at specific locations cause uncertainties in the range of 20 %. (3) Climate change may increase emissions by 0–40% in central to northern Europe.(4) Gradients in existing emission inventories that are seen between neighbour countries (e.g. between the UK and France) can be reduced by using a dynamical methodology for calculating emissions. Acting together these four factors can cause substantial uncertainties in emission. Emissions are generally considered among the largest uncertainties in the model calculations made with CTM and CCM models. Efforts to reduce uncertainties are therefore highly relevant.It is therefore recommended that both CCMs and CTMs implement a dynamical methodology for simulating ammonia emissions in a similar way as for biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOCs) – a method that has been used for more than a decade in CTMs. Finally, the climate penalty on ammonia emissions should be taken into account at the policy level such as the NEC and IPPC directives

Three Years (2008-2010) Measurements of Atmospheric Concentrations of Organochlorine Pesticides (OCPs) at Station Nord, North East Greenland

Atmospheric concentrations of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) have been measured for the first time at Station Nord, North-East Greenland, from 2008 to 2010. The data obtained are reported here. Hexachlorobenzene (HCB), endosulfan I and hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) were the predominant compounds detected in the atmosphere, followed by p,p′-DDE and dieldrin. Chlordane isomers and related compounds (trans- and cis-chlordanes, heptachlor and heptachlor epoxide, trans- and cis-nonachlor) were also detected. Atmospheric concentrations of the investigated compounds were correlated with temperature using the Clausius–Clapeyron equation in order to obtain information about their transport properties. The correlation between atmospheric concentrations and temperature was not significant for endosulfan I, γ-HCH and p,p′-DDT, which indicates that direct transport from direct sources is the dominating transport mechanism for these compounds. A significant correlation with temperature was found for all the other studied pesticides and pesticide degradation products, which indicates that re-emission of these compounds from previously contaminated surfaces is an important factor for the observed variation in concentrations. Pesticide concentrations were also correlated with sea ice cover. Concentrations of the compounds that have not been in use for decades correlated with temperature and ice cover, while concentrations of compounds still in use did not correlate with either of these parameters. These observations indicate that processes such as revolatilization from the open sea surface are important mediating factors in the dynamics of anthropogenic persistent pollutants in the Arctic environment under the expected influence of climate change processes

Ammonia emissions from deciduous forest after leaf fall

The understanding of biochemical feedback mechanisms in the climate system is lacking knowledge in relation to bi-directional ammonia (NH3) exchange between natural ecosystems and the atmosphere. We therefore study the atmospheric NH3 fluxes during a 25-day period during autumn 2010 (21 October to 15 November) for the Danish beech forest Lille Bøgeskov to address the hypothesis that NH3 emissions occur from deciduous forests in relation to leaf fall. This is accomplished by using observations of vegetation status, NH3 fluxes and model calculations. Vegetation status was observed using plant area index (PAI) and leaf area index (LAI). NH3 fluxes were measured using the relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) method. The REA-based NH3 concentrations were compared to NH3 denuder measurements. Model calculations of the atmospheric NH3 concentration were obtained with the Danish Ammonia MOdelling System (DAMOS). The relative contribution from the forest components to the atmospheric NH3 flux was assessed using a simple two-layer bi-directional canopy compensation point model. A total of 57.7% of the fluxes measured showed emission and 19.5% showed deposition. A clear tendency of the flux going from deposition of −0.25 ± 0.30 μg NH3-N m−2 s−1 to emission of up to 0.67 ± 0.28 μg NH3-N m−2 s−1 throughout the measurement period was found. In the leaf fall period (23 October to 8 November), an increase in the atmospheric NH3 concentrations was related to the increasing forest NH3 flux. Following leaf fall, the magnitude and temporal structure of the measured NH3 emission fluxes could be adequately reproduced with the bi-directional resistance model; it suggested the forest ground layer (soil and litter) to be the main contributing component to the NH3 emissions. The modelled concentration from DAMOS fits well the measured concentrations before leaf fall, but during and after leaf fall, the modelled concentrations are too low. The results indicate that the missing contribution to atmospheric NH3 concentration from vegetative surfaces related to leaf fall are of a relatively large magnitude. We therefore conclude that emissions from deciduous forests are important to include in model calculations of atmospheric NH3 for forest ecosystems. Finally, diurnal variations in the measured NH3 concentrations were related to meteorological conditions, forest phenology and the spatial distribution of local anthropogenic NH3 sources. This suggests that an accurate description of ammonia fluxes over forest ecosystems requires a dynamic description of atmospheric and vegetation processes

A Comprehensive Emission Inventory of Bbiogenic Volatile Organic Compounds in Europe: Improved Seasonality and Land-cover

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) emitted from vegetation are important for the formation of secondary pollutants such as ozone and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) in the atmosphere. Therefore, BVOC emission are an important input for air quality models. To model these emissions with high spatial resolution, the accuracy of the underlying vegetation inventory is crucial. We present a BVOC emission model that accommodates different vegetation inventories and uses satellite-based measurements of greenness instead of pre-defined vegetation periods. This approach to seasonality implicitly treats effects caused by water or nutrient availability, altitude and latitude on a plant stand. Additionally, we test the influence of proposed seasonal variability in enzyme activity on BVOC emissions. In its present setup, the emission model calculates hourly emissions of isoprene, monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes and the oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOC) methanol, formaldehyde, formic acid, ethanol, acetaldehyde, acetone and acetic acid. In this study, emissions based on three different vegetation inventories are compared with each other and diurnal and seasonal variations in Europe are investigated for the year 2006. Two of these vegetation inventories require information on tree-cover as an input. We compare three different land-cover inventories (USGS GLCC, GLC2000 and Globcover 2.2) with respect to tree-cover. The often-used USGS GLCC land-cover inventory leads to a severe reduction of BVOC emissions due to a potential miss-attribution of broad-leaved trees and reduced tree-cover compared to the two other land-cover inventories. To account for uncertainties in the land-cover classification, we introduce land-cover correction factors for each relevant land-use category to adjust the tree-cover. The results are very sensitive to these factors within the plausible range. For June 2006, total monthly BVOC emissions decreased up to −27% with minimal and increased up to +71% with maximal factors, while in January 2006, the changes in monthly BVOC emissions were −54 and +56% with minimal and maximal factors, respectively. The new seasonality approach leads to a reduction in the annual emissions compared with non-adjusted data. The strongest reduction occurs in OVOC (up to −32 %), the weakest in isoprene (as little as −19 %). If also enzyme seasonality is taken into account, however, isoprene reacts with the steepest decrease of annual emissions, which are reduced by −44% to −49 %, annual emissions of monoterpenes reduce between −30 and −35 %. The sensitivity of the model to changes in temperature depends on the climatic zone but not on the vegetation inventory. The sensitivity is higher for temperature increases of 3K (+31% to +64 %) than decreases by the same amount (−20 to −35 %). The climatic zones “Cold except summer” and “arid” are most sensitive to temperature changes in January for isoprene and monoterpenes, respectively, while in June, “polar” is most sensitive to temperature for both isoprene and monoterpenes. Our model predicts the oxygenated volatile organic compounds to be the most abundant fraction of the annual European emissions (3571–5328 Gg yr−1), followed by monoterpenes (2964–4124 Gg yr−1), isoprene (1450–2650 Gg yr−1) and sesquiterpenes (150–257 Gg yr−1). We find regions with high isoprene emissions (most notably the Iberian Peninsula), but overall, oxygenated VOC dominate with 43–45% (depending on the vegetation inventory) contribution to the total annual BVOC emissions in Europe. Isoprene contributes between 18–21 %, monoterpenes 33–36% and sesquiterpenes contribute 1–2 %.We compare the concentrations of biogenic species simulated by an air quality model with measurements of isoprene and monoterpenes in Hohenpeissenberg (Germany) for both summer and winter. The agreement between observed and modelled concentrations is better in summer than in winter. This can partly be explained with the difficulty to model weather conditions in winter accurately, but also with the increased anthropogenic influence on the concentrations of BVOC compounds in winter. Our results suggest that land-cover inventories used to derive tree-cover must be chosen with care. Also, uncertainties in the classification of land-cover pixels must be taken into account and remain high. This problem must be addressed together with the remote sensing community. Our new approach using a greenness index for addressing seasonality of vegetation can be implemented easily in existing models. The importance of OVOC for air quality should be more deeply addressed by future studies, especially in smog chambers. Also, the fate of BVOC from the dominant region of the Iberian Peninsula should be studied more in detail

Lessons Learnt From Ragweed and Birch Studies

Here we review some of the most important aspects of recent work on Ragweed (Ambrosia) and birch (Betula) concerning: 1) sources, 2) trends & phenology and 3) dispersion and transformation. Sources: At Northern latitudes the birch fraction in forests usually exceeds 50% of all broadleaved trees and the abundance of birch decreases with latitude from 5%-20% in many mid-latitude regions and down to 0%-2% in more southern areas. Birches are also commonly found in small woodlands or planted as ornamental trees in urban areas. Ragweeds are herbaceous weed species that are associated with areas of disturbance. Ragweed is native to North America, but considered an invasive species in Europe, Australia and China. In Europe, the four main centres are: The Pannonian Plain, Ukraine, The Po Valley (Italy) and the Rhone Valley (France). Trends & Phenology: Birch pollen seasons have started earlier during the last decades. This trend appears have decreased during recent years despite increasing spring temperatures. Ragweed tends to experience less change in flowering date as ragweed flowering depends on photoperiod. Ragweed is increasing its distribution in Europe, but airborne concentrations of ragweed pollen are not universally increasing, e.g. due to control measures or pest attacks. Dispersion & transformation: The beginning of the birch pollen season is often heralded by episodes of Long Distance Transport (LDT) from the south. Similar LDT episodes are intermittently seen for ragweed, which can reach as far north as Scandinavia. Humidity and air pollution can modify pollen grains during atmospheric transport. This can cause a change in allergenic potential of the pollen grain and is a direction for future research including the effect of co-exposure of air pollution and the transformation of aeroallergens

Identifying Urban Sources as Cause of Elevated Grass Pollen Concentrations using GIS and Remote Sensing

We examine here the hypothesis that during flowering, the grass pollen concentrations at a specific site reflect the distribution of grass pollen sources within a few kilometres of this site.We perform this analysis on data from a measurement campaign in the city of Aarhus (Denmark) using three pollen traps and by comparing these observations with a novel inventory of grass pollen sources. The source inventory is based on a new methodology developed for urbanscale grass pollen sources. The new methodology is believed to be generally applicable for the European area, as it relies on commonly available remote sensing data combined with management information for local grass areas. The inventory has identified a number of grass pollen source areas present within the city domain. The comparison of the measured pollen concentrations with the inventory shows that the atmospheric concentrations of grass pollen in the urban zone reflect the source areas identified in the inventory, and that the pollen sources that are found to affect the pollen levels are located near or within the city domain. The results also show that during days with peak levels of pollen concentrations there is no correlation between the three urban traps and an operational trap located just 60 km away. This finding suggests that during intense flowering, the grass pollen concentration mirrors the local source distribution and is thus a local-scale phenomenon. Model simulations aimed at assessing population exposure to pollen levels are therefore recommended to take into account both local sources and local atmospheric transport, and not to rely only on describing regional to long-range transport of pollen. The derived pollen source inventory can be entered into local-scale atmospheric transport models in combination with other components that simulate pollen release in order to calculate urban-scale variations in the grass pollen load. The gridded inventory with a resolution of 14m is therefore made available as supplementary material to this paper, and the verifying grass pollen observations are additionally available in tabular form

Spatial, Temporal and Vertical Distribution of Ammonia Concentrations Over Europe – Comparing a Static and Dynamic Approach With WRF-Chem

The study focuses on the application of a dynamic ammonia emission into the Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) and the influence on the simulated ammonia concentrations and the overall model performance. We have focused on agricultural ammonia sources and have analysed both hourly and daily patterns of ammonia emissions and concentrations at measurement sites located in agricultural areas or influenced by this activity. For selected episodes, we have also investigated the 3-D patterns of the ammonia concentrations in the atmosphere. The application of the dynamic ammonia emission into the WRF-Chem model (the “DYNAMIC” simulation) results in an improvement of the modelled daily ammonia concentrations in comparison to a static approach (the “BASE” simulation), which is currently widely used in chemical transport models. In the case of hourly resolution, we have observed an improvement for the DYNAMIC approach for the winter and autumn seasons, but for the entire year the modelled hourly ammonia peaks are shifted toward the afternoon hours if compared with measurements. This study indicates that the current description of the diurnal cycle of the ammonia concentration from fields is not accurate and more research is needed in order to improve the processes that describe the emission from fertilised fields. The results suggest that the governing processes in relation to the diurnal cycle are the atmospheric mixing and the emission strength. Therefore,an improved description of the diurnal profile of ammonia concentrations within atmospheric models requires a better description of the planetary boundary layer height and a stronger daily pattern of ammonia emission, e.g. through increased evaporation or increased fluxes from the surface

Ammonia Concentrations Over Europe – Application of the WRF-Chem Model Supported With Dynamic Emission

The study focuses on the application of a static and dynamic ammonia emission based on a Europe-wide default setting into the Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) and the influence on the simulated ammonia concentrations and the overall model performance. The WRF-Chem model was run twice for the entire Europe at a spatial resolution of 36 x 36 km for the year 2012. In the first simulation we used a static emission approach (the “BASE” simulation), whereas in the second simulation, dynamic ammonia emissions were used (the “DYNAMIC” simulation). Both simulations underestimate measured concentrations of NH3 for all seasons, have similar NMGE (about 0.7 μg m-3) and modelled hourly ammonia peaks are shifted towards the afternoon hours if compared with measurements. However, for all temporal resolutions, normalised mean gross error in winter and summer is lower for DYNAMIC than for BASE. The DYNAMIC simulation also generally gives worse performance in spring for each temporal resolution. For further improvement of the modelled ammonia concentrations with WRF-Chem we suggest to use a nested approach with higher spatial resolution, which will lead to better separation of the ammonia source regions from surrounding areas, and take into account national practice and regulations in the emission model, eventually only in the nested model domain

Do atmospheric events explain the arrival of an invasive ladybird (Harmonia axyridis) in the UK?

Species introduced outside their natural range threaten global biodiversity and despite greater awareness of invasive species risks at ports and airports, control measures in place only concern anthropogenic routes of dispersal. Here, we use the Harlequin ladybird, Harmonia axyridis, an invasive species which first established in the UK from continental Europe in 2004, to test whether records from 2004 and 2005 were associated with atmospheric events. We used the atmospheric- chemistry transport model SILAM to model the movement of this species from known distributions in continental Europe and tested whether the predicted atmospheric events were associated with the frequency of ladybird records in the UK. We show that the distribution of this species in the early years of its arrival does not provide substantial evidence for a purely anthropogenic introduction and show instead that atmospheric events can better explain this arrival event. Our results suggest that air flows which may assist dispersal over the English Channel are relatively frequent; ranging from once a week from Belgium and the Netherlands to 1–2 times a week from France over our study period. Given the frequency of these events, we demonstrate that atmospheric-assisted dispersal is a viable route for flying species to cross natural barriers