Financial crises, unconventional monetary policy exit strategies, and agents' expectations

This paper considers a model with financial frictions and studies the role of expectations and unconventional monetary policy response to financial crises. During a financial crisis, the financial sector has reduced ability to provide credit to productive firms, and the central bank may help lessen the magnitude of the downturn by using unconventional monetary policy to inject liquidity into credit markets. The model allows parameters to change according to a Markov process, which gives agents in the economy expectation about the probability of the central bank intervening in response to a crises, as well as expectations about the central bank's exit strategy post-crises. Using this Markov regime switching specification, the paper addresses three issues. First, it considers the effects of different exit strategies, and shows that, after a crisis, if the central bank sells off its accumulated assets too quickly, the economy can experience a double-dip recession. Second, it analyzes the effects of expectations of intervention policy on pre-crises behavior. In particular, if the central bank increases the probability of intervening during crises, this increase leads to a loss of output in pre-crisis times. Finally, the paper considers the welfare implications of guaranteeing intervention during crises, and shows that providing a guarantee can raise or lower welfare depending upon the exit strategy used, and that committing before a crisis can be welfare decreasing but then welfare increasing once a crisis occurs.

Bayesian Analysis, Endogenous Data,and Convergence of Beliefs

Problems in statistical analysis, economics, and many other disciplines often involve a trade-off between rewards and additional information that could yield higher future rewards. This thesis investigates such a trade-off, using a class of problems known as bandit problems. In these problems, a reward-seeking agent makes decisions based upon his beliefs about a parameter that controls rewards. While some choices may generate higher short-term rewards, other choices may provide information that allows the agent to learn about the parameter, thereby potentially increasing future rewards. Learning occurs if the agent\u27s subjective beliefs about the parameter converge over time to the parameter\u27s true value. However, depending upon the environment, learning may or may not be optimal, as in the end, the agent cares about maximizing rewards and not necessarily learning the true value of the underlying parameter

Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production

This paper uses factor analytic methods to decompose industrial production (IP) into components arising from aggregate shocks and idiosyncratic sector-specific shocks. An approximate factor model finds that nearly all (90%) of the variability of quarterly growth rates in IP are associated with common factors. Because common factors may reflect sectoral shocks that have propagated by way of input-output linkages, we then use a multisector growth model to adjust for the effects of these linkages. In particular, we show that neoclassical multisector models, of the type first introduced by Long and Plosser (1983), produce an approximate factor model as a reduced form. A structural factor analysis then indicates that aggregate shocks continue to be the dominant source of variation in IP, but the importance of sectoral shocks more than doubles after the Great Moderation (to 30%). The increase in the relative importance of these shocks follows from a fall in the contribution of aggregate shocks to IP movements after 1984.

A systematic review of the evidence for single stage and two stage revision of infected knee replacement

BACKGROUND: Periprosthetic infection about the knee is a devastating complication that may affect between 1% and 5% of knee replacement. With over 79 000 knee replacements being implanted each year in the UK, periprosthetic infection (PJI) is set to become an important burden of disease and cost to the healthcare economy. One of the important controversies in treatment of PJI is whether a single stage revision operation is superior to a two-stage procedure. This study sought to systematically evaluate the published evidence to determine which technique had lowest reinfection rates. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was undertaken using the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases with the aim to identify existing studies that present the outcomes of each surgical technique. Reinfection rate was the primary outcome measure. Studies of specific subsets of patients such as resistant organisms were excluded. RESULTS: 63 studies were identified that met the inclusion criteria. The majority of which (58) were reports of two-stage revision. Reinfection rated varied between 0% and 41% in two-stage studies, and 0% and 11% in single stage studies. No clinical trials were identified and the majority of studies were observational studies. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence for both one-stage and two-stage revision is largely of low quality. The evidence basis for two-stage revision is significantly larger, and further work into direct comparison between the two techniques should be undertaken as a priority

Pleistocene climate variability in eastern Africa influenced hominin evolution

AbstractDespite more than half a century of hominin fossil discoveries in eastern Africa, the regional environmental context of hominin evolution and dispersal is not well established due to the lack of continuous palaeoenvironmental records from one of the proven habitats of early human populations, particularly for the Pleistocene epoch. Here we present a 620,000-year environmental record from Chew Bahir, southern Ethiopia, which is proximal to key fossil sites. Our record documents the potential influence of different episodes of climatic variability on hominin biological and cultural transformation. The appearance of high anatomical diversity in hominin groups coincides with long-lasting and relatively stable humid conditions from ~620,000 to 275,000 years bp (episodes 1–6), interrupted by several abrupt and extreme hydroclimate perturbations. A pattern of pronounced climatic cyclicity transformed habitats during episodes 7–9 (~275,000–60,000 years bp), a crucial phase encompassing the gradual transition from Acheulean to Middle Stone Age technologies, the emergence of Homo sapiens in eastern Africa and key human social and cultural innovations. Those accumulative innovations plus the alignment of humid pulses between northeastern Africa and the eastern Mediterranean during high-frequency climate oscillations of episodes 10–12 (~60,000–10,000 years bp) could have facilitated the global dispersal of H. sapiens.</jats:p

Increased Expression of the Auxiliary β(2)-subunit of Ventricular L-type Ca(2+) Channels Leads to Single-Channel Activity Characteristic of Heart Failure

BACKGROUND: Increased activity of single ventricular L-type Ca(2+)-channels (L-VDCC) is a hallmark in human heart failure. Recent findings suggest differential modulation by several auxiliary β-subunits as a possible explanation. METHODS AND RESULTS: By molecular and functional analyses of human and murine ventricles, we find that enhanced L-VDCC activity is accompanied by altered expression pattern of auxiliary L-VDCC β-subunit gene products. In HEK293-cells we show differential modulation of single L-VDCC activity by coexpression of several human cardiac β-subunits: Unlike β(1) or β(3) isoforms, β(2a) and β(2b) induce a high-activity channel behavior typical of failing myocytes. In accordance, β(2)-subunit mRNA and protein are up-regulated in failing human myocardium. In a model of heart failure we find that mice overexpressing the human cardiac Ca(V)1.2 also reveal increased single-channel activity and sarcolemmal β(2) expression when entering into the maladaptive stage of heart failure. Interestingly, these animals, when still young and non-failing (“Adaptive Phase”), reveal the opposite phenotype, viz : reduced single-channel activity accompanied by lowered β(2) expression. Additional evidence for the cause-effect relationship between β(2)-subunit expression and single L-VDCC activity is provided by newly engineered, double-transgenic mice bearing both constitutive Ca(V)1.2 and inducible β(2) cardiac overexpression. Here in non-failing hearts induction of β(2)-subunit overexpression mimicked the increase of single L-VDCC activity observed in murine and human chronic heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: Our study presents evidence of the pathobiochemical relevance of β(2)-subunits for the electrophysiological phenotype of cardiac L-VDCC and thus provides an explanation for the single L-VDCC gating observed in human and murine heart failure

ICDP workshop on the Lake Tanganyika Scientific Drilling Project: a late Miocene–present record of climate, rifting, and ecosystem evolution from the world's oldest tropical lake

The Neogene and Quaternary are characterized by enormous changes in global climate and environments, including global cooling and the establishment of northern high-latitude glaciers. These changes reshaped global ecosystems, including the emergence of tropical dry forests and savannahs that are found in Africa today, which in turn may have influenced the evolution of humans and their ancestors. However, despite decades of research we lack long, continuous, well-resolved records of tropical climate, ecosystem changes, and surface processes necessary to understand their interactions and influences on evolutionary processes. Lake Tanganyika, Africa, contains the most continuous, long continental climate record from the mid-Miocene (∼10 Ma) to the present anywhere in the tropics and has long been recognized as a top-priority site for scientific drilling. The lake is surrounded by the Miombo woodlands, part of the largest dry tropical biome on Earth. Lake Tanganyika also harbors incredibly diverse endemic biota and an entirely unexplored deep microbial biosphere, and it provides textbook examples of rift segmentation, fault behavior, and associated surface processes. To evaluate the interdisciplinary scientific opportunities that an ICDP drilling program at Lake Tanganyika could offer, more than 70 scientists representing 12 countries and a variety of scientific disciplines met in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, in June 2019. The team developed key research objectives in basin evolution, source-to-sink sedimentology, organismal evolution, geomicrobiology, paleoclimatology, paleolimnology, terrestrial paleoecology, paleoanthropology, and geochronology to be addressed through scientific drilling on Lake Tanganyika. They also identified drilling targets and strategies, logistical challenges, and education and capacity building programs to be carried out through the project. Participants concluded that a drilling program at Lake Tanganyika would produce the first continuous Miocene–present record from the tropics, transforming our understanding of global environmental change, the environmental context of human origins in Africa, and providing a detailed window into the dynamics, tempo and mode of biological diversification and adaptive radiations.© Author(s) 2020. This open access article is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License

Observation of Charge-Dependent Azimuthal Correlations in p-Pb Collisions and Its Implication for the Search for the Chiral Magnetic Effect

Peer reviewe

A large genome-wide association study of age-related macular degeneration highlights contributions of rare and common variants.

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ng.3448Advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in the elderly, with limited therapeutic options. Here we report on a study of >12 million variants, including 163,714 directly genotyped, mostly rare, protein-altering variants. Analyzing 16,144 patients and 17,832 controls, we identify 52 independently associated common and rare variants (P < 5 × 10(-8)) distributed across 34 loci. Although wet and dry AMD subtypes exhibit predominantly shared genetics, we identify the first genetic association signal specific to wet AMD, near MMP9 (difference P value = 4.1 × 10(-10)). Very rare coding variants (frequency <0.1%) in CFH, CFI and TIMP3 suggest causal roles for these genes, as does a splice variant in SLC16A8. Our results support the hypothesis that rare coding variants can pinpoint causal genes within known genetic loci and illustrate that applying the approach systematically to detect new loci requires extremely large sample sizes.We thank all participants of all the studies included for enabling this research by their participation in these studies. Computer resources for this project have been provided by the high-performance computing centers of the University of Michigan and the University of Regensburg. Group-specific acknowledgments can be found in the Supplementary Note. The Center for Inherited Diseases Research (CIDR) Program contract number is HHSN268201200008I. This and the main consortium work were predominantly funded by 1X01HG006934-01 to G.R.A. and R01 EY022310 to J.L.H

Search for anomalous Wtb couplings and flavour-changing neutral currents in t-channel single top quark production in pp collisions at root s=7 and 8 TeV

Peer reviewe