A new risk prioritization model for reliability assessment in design phase of new products

Trabalho final de mestrado para obtenção do grau de mestre em Engenharia MecânicaNowadays, companies take very seriously the subject of product quality, and make great efforts to guarantee that a reliable product is deployed into the market. Early detection of product faults is less costly and easier to correct. Therefore, companies tend to proceed with reliability tasks along all product development stages, such as Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) which is a well-known tool used to identify failure modes and thus enhance system reliability through the development of suitable correction actions. Few companies have the resources to tackle all failure modes so they resort to prioritization methodologies in order to focus on the most critical ones. The most commonly prioritization methodology used worldwide is the Risk Priority Number (RPN). However, it has been raised by scientific community awareness towards RPN shortcomings that may result in misleading prioritization outcomes. Despite all the critics, conventional RPN is still utilized worldwide for prioritization of failure modes, probably due to its simplicity. In this study, it is proposed an alternative computation model (RPN beta - RPNb) for risk prioritization, which attempts to maintain application simplicity while eliminating some of conventional RPN shortcomings – 1) No consideration of risk drivers’ relative importance, 2) repetition of RPN values through different risk drivers’ combinations, 3) non-continuity of RPN values scale, and 4) high sensitiveness to variations in risk drivers scoring. Companies cannot rely on ineffective methodologies to support the decision-making, and implementation of corrective action for reliability improvement is not an exception. It is of utmost importance to replace the utilization of conventional RPN for failure modes prioritization. Based on a comparative analysis of a case study, RPNb presents itself as an apparently robust alternative, capable of delivering sustained results, adjustable to industry/area specific characteristics, through a straightforward computation mode.Atualmente, as empresas tratam a questão da qualidade de produtos com seriedade, e procedem a grandes esforços para colocar no mercado produtos fiáveis. Neste sentido, as empresas promovem tarefas com vista o aumento da fiabilidade durante todo o ciclo de vida do produto. A Análise de Modos de Falha e Efeitos (FMEA) é uma ferramenta usada a nível mundial na identificação de modos de falha e assim promover o aumento da fiabilidade através da implementação de ações corretivas. São poucas as empresas que possuem os recursos necessários para retificar todos os modos de falha identificados, e como tal recorrem a metodologias de priorização de modo a orientar esforços nos mais críticos. A metodologia de priorização mais comum é o Número Prioritário de Risco (RPN). No entanto, este tem sido alvo de críticas por parte da comunidade científica devido à existência de lacunas que podem levar a resultados enganadores. Apesar das críticas, o RPN convencional é ainda utilizado mundialmente na priorização de modos de falha, provavelmente devido à sua simplicidade. Neste estudo, é proposto um modelo de computação alternativo (RPNb) para priorização de risco com vista a eliminação de algumas lacunas do RPN convencional – Não consideração da importância relativa dos parâmetros de risco; Repetição dos valores de RPN através de diferentes combinações dos parâmetros de risco; Nãocontinuidade da escala RPN; Elevada sensibilidade a variações na pontuação dos parâmetros de risco – e a manutenção da simplicidade de aplicação. Na procura pela melhoria da fiabilidade, as empresas não devem suportar a tomada de decisão em metodologias pouco eficazes. Assim, é importante promover a substituição do RPN convencional na priorização de modos de falha. Neste sentido, e com base no caso de estudo, o RPNb é uma alternativa aparentemente robusta, capaz de fornecer resultados coerentes, ajustadável às características da indústria/área, através de um modelo simples.N/

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear un derstanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5–7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8–11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world’s most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepre sented in biodiversity databases.13–15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may elim inate pieces of the Amazon’s biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological com munities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple or ganism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region’s vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most ne glected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lostinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Geography and ecology shape the phylogenetic composition of Amazonian tree communities

Aim: Amazonia hosts more tree species from numerous evolutionary lineages, both young and ancient, than any other biogeographic region. Previous studies have shown that tree lineages colonized multiple edaphic environments and dispersed widely across Amazonia, leading to a hypothesis, which we test, that lineages should not be strongly associated with either geographic regions or edaphic forest types. Location: Amazonia. Taxon: Angiosperms (Magnoliids; Monocots; Eudicots). Methods: Data for the abundance of 5082 tree species in 1989 plots were combined with a mega-phylogeny. We applied evolutionary ordination to assess how phylogenetic composition varies across Amazonia. We used variation partitioning and Moran\u27s eigenvector maps (MEM) to test and quantify the separate and joint contributions of spatial and environmental variables to explain the phylogenetic composition of plots. We tested the indicator value of lineages for geographic regions and edaphic forest types and mapped associations onto the phylogeny. Results: In the terra firme and várzea forest types, the phylogenetic composition varies by geographic region, but the igapó and white-sand forest types retain a unique evolutionary signature regardless of region. Overall, we find that soil chemistry, climate and topography explain 24% of the variation in phylogenetic composition, with 79% of that variation being spatially structured (R$^{2}$ = 19% overall for combined spatial/environmental effects). The phylogenetic composition also shows substantial spatial patterns not related to the environmental variables we quantified (R$^{2}$ = 28%). A greater number of lineages were significant indicators of geographic regions than forest types. Main Conclusion: Numerous tree lineages, including some ancient ones (>66 Ma), show strong associations with geographic regions and edaphic forest types of Amazonia. This shows that specialization in specific edaphic environments has played a long-standing role in the evolutionary assembly of Amazonian forests. Furthermore, many lineages, even those that have dispersed across Amazonia, dominate within a specific region, likely because of phylogenetically conserved niches for environmental conditions that are prevalent within regions

Geographic patterns of tree dispersal modes in Amazonia and their ecological correlates

Aim: To investigate the geographic patterns and ecological correlates in the geographic distribution of the most common tree dispersal modes in Amazonia (endozoochory, synzoochory, anemochory and hydrochory). We examined if the proportional abundance of these dispersal modes could be explained by the availability of dispersal agents (disperser-availability hypothesis) and/or the availability of resources for constructing zoochorous fruits (resource-availability hypothesis). Time period: Tree-inventory plots established between 1934 and 2019. Major taxa studied: Trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 9.55 cm. Location: Amazonia, here defined as the lowland rain forests of the Amazon River basin and the Guiana Shield. Methods: We assigned dispersal modes to a total of 5433 species and morphospecies within 1877 tree-inventory plots across terra-firme, seasonally flooded, and permanently flooded forests. We investigated geographic patterns in the proportional abundance of dispersal modes. We performed an abundance-weighted mean pairwise distance (MPD) test and fit generalized linear models (GLMs) to explain the geographic distribution of dispersal modes. Results: Anemochory was significantly, positively associated with mean annual wind speed, and hydrochory was significantly higher in flooded forests. Dispersal modes did not consistently show significant associations with the availability of resources for constructing zoochorous fruits. A lower dissimilarity in dispersal modes, resulting from a higher dominance of endozoochory, occurred in terra-firme forests (excluding podzols) compared to flooded forests. Main conclusions: The disperser-availability hypothesis was well supported for abiotic dispersal modes (anemochory and hydrochory). The availability of resources for constructing zoochorous fruits seems an unlikely explanation for the distribution of dispersal modes in Amazonia. The association between frugivores and the proportional abundance of zoochory requires further research, as tree recruitment not only depends on dispersal vectors but also on conditions that favour or limit seedling recruitment across forest types

Geography and ecology shape the phylogenetic composition of Amazonian tree communities

AimAmazonia hosts more tree species from numerous evolutionary lineages, both young and ancient, than any other biogeographic region. Previous studies have shown that tree lineages colonized multiple edaphic environments and dispersed widely across Amazonia, leading to a hypothesis, which we test, that lineages should not be strongly associated with either geographic regions or edaphic forest types.LocationAmazonia.TaxonAngiosperms (Magnoliids; Monocots; Eudicots).MethodsData for the abundance of 5082 tree species in 1989 plots were combined with a mega-phylogeny. We applied evolutionary ordination to assess how phylogenetic composition varies across Amazonia. We used variation partitioning and Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM) to test and quantify the separate and joint contributions of spatial and environmental variables to explain the phylogenetic composition of plots. We tested the indicator value of lineages for geographic regions and edaphic forest types and mapped associations onto the phylogeny.ResultsIn the terra firme and várzea forest types, the phylogenetic composition varies by geographic region, but the igapó and white-sand forest types retain a unique evolutionary signature regardless of region. Overall, we find that soil chemistry, climate and topography explain 24% of the variation in phylogenetic composition, with 79% of that variation being spatially structured (R2 = 19% overall for combined spatial/environmental effects). The phylogenetic composition also shows substantial spatial patterns not related to the environmental variables we quantified (R2 = 28%). A greater number of lineages were significant indicators of geographic regions than forest types.Main ConclusionNumerous tree lineages, including some ancient ones (>66 Ma), show strong associations with geographic regions and edaphic forest types of Amazonia. This shows that specialization in specific edaphic environments has played a long-standing role in the evolutionary assembly of Amazonian forests. Furthermore, many lineages, even those that have dispersed across Amazonia, dominate within a specific region, likely because of phylogenetically conserved niches for environmental conditions that are prevalent within regions

Mapping density, diversity and species-richness of the Amazon tree flora

Using 2.046 botanically-inventoried tree plots across the largest tropical forest on Earth, we mapped tree species-diversity and tree species-richness at 0.1-degree resolution, and investigated drivers for diversity and richness. Using only location, stratified by forest type, as predictor, our spatial model, to the best of our knowledge, provides the most accurate map of tree diversity in Amazonia to date, explaining approximately 70% of the tree diversity and species-richness. Large soil-forest combinations determine a significant percentage of the variation in tree species-richness and tree alpha-diversity in Amazonian forest-plots. We suggest that the size and fragmentation of these systems drive their large-scale diversity patterns and hence local diversity. A model not using location but cumulative water deficit, tree density, and temperature seasonality explains 47% of the tree species-richness in the terra-firme forest in Amazonia. Over large areas across Amazonia, residuals of this relationship are small and poorly spatially structured, suggesting that much of the residual variation may be local. The Guyana Shield area has consistently negative residuals, showing that this area has lower tree species-richness than expected by our models. We provide extensive plot meta-data, including tree density, tree alpha-diversity and tree species-richness results and gridded maps at 0.1-degree resolution

O perfil semiológico do paciente portador de hemorragia digestiva alta

OBJETIVO: O seguinte estudo objetivou descrever a semiologia do paciente portador de hemorragia digestiva alta, considerando como determinante na avaliação de potencias focos hemorrágicos. METODOLOGIA: Foram realizadas buscas nas plataformas do SciELO, LILACS, PubMed, Scopus e Google Scholar,utilizando os descritores gastrointestinal bleeding, peptic ulcerous disease e varicose hemorrhage, sendo identificados 35 estudos, dos quais foram incluídos 13 artigos completos. Desses estudos, 5 avaliaram as principais etiologias, 2 o surgimento de novos testes diagnósticos, 2 analisaram os aspectos epidemiológicos e 1 a sintomatologia apresentada pelo acometimento da hemorragia digestiva alta. Observou-se inicialmente a abundâncias de informações conceituais sobre o sangramento, como um transtorno clínico comum, acompanhada de inúmeras manifestações, considerando que o foco hemorrágico pode ocorrer em qualquer porção do trato gastrointestinal. Neste estudo, todas as publicações eleitas apresentaram o quadro semiológico composto por algia abdominal, indícios de choque hipovolêmico e taquicardia, alguns exibiram quedas abruptas da pressão arterial, odinofagia, êmese, náuseas e estado ictérico. Os pacientes implicados, cronicamente, já manifestaram ocorrências prévias, devido ao caráter recidivante torna-se essencial investigar a existência de varizes, fístula aorto-entérica, angiodisplasia e doença ulcerosa. CONCLUSÃO: Elucida-se que a hemorragia digestiva alta representa a principal causa de sangramento do trato gastrointestinal, majoritamente manifesta-se como hematêmese ou melena e cursam com o quadro sintomatológico que auxilia na avaliação da gravidade deste e o embasamento de potenciais focos de sangramento e que contribuam para disseminação de informações e intervenções futuras

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1,2,3,4,5,6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth’s 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world’s most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Rarity of monodominance in hyperdiverse Amazonian forests.

Tropical forests are known for their high diversity. Yet, forest patches do occur in the tropics where a single tree species is dominant. Such "monodominant" forests are known from all of the main tropical regions. For Amazonia, we sampled the occurrence of monodominance in a massive, basin-wide database of forest-inventory plots from the Amazon Tree Diversity Network (ATDN). Utilizing a simple defining metric of at least half of the trees ≥ 10 cm diameter belonging to one species, we found only a few occurrences of monodominance in Amazonia, and the phenomenon was not significantly linked to previously hypothesized life history traits such wood density, seed mass, ectomycorrhizal associations, or Rhizobium nodulation. In our analysis, coppicing (the formation of sprouts at the base of the tree or on roots) was the only trait significantly linked to monodominance. While at specific locales coppicing or ectomycorrhizal associations may confer a considerable advantage to a tree species and lead to its monodominance, very few species have these traits. Mining of the ATDN dataset suggests that monodominance is quite rare in Amazonia, and may be linked primarily to edaphic factors