FEBio: finite elements for biomechanics

poste

Future Decreases in Freezing Days across North America

This study used air temperatures from a suite of regional climate models participating in the North American Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) together with two atmospheric reanalysis datasets to investigate changes in freezing days (defined as days with daily average temperature below freezing) likely to occur between 30-yr baseline (1971–2000) and midcentury (2041–70) periods across most of North America. Changes in NARCCAP ensemble mean winter temperature show a strong gradient with latitude, with warming of over 4°C near Hudson Bay. The decline in freezing days ranges from less than 10 days across north-central Canada to nearly 90 days in the warmest areas of the continent that currently undergo seasonally freezing conditions. The area experiencing freezing days contracts by 0.9–1.0 × 106 km2 (5.7%–6.4% of the total area). Areas with mean annual temperature between 2° and 6°C and a relatively low rate of change in climatological daily temperatures (−) near the time of spring thaw will encounter the greatest decreases in freezing days. Advances in the timing of spring thaw will exceed the delay in fall freeze across much of the United States, with the reverse pattern likely over most of Canada

Applied public health research - falling through the cracks?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is a degree of dissonance between the types of evaluative research required by organisations providing or commissioning health care, those recommended by organisations developing evidence-based guidance, and those which research funding bodies are prepared to support.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We present a case study of efforts to establish a pragmatic but robust evaluation of local exercise referral schemes. We considered the epidemiological, ethical and practical advantages and disadvantages of a number of study designs and applied for research funding based on an uncontrolled design, outlining the difficulties of carrying out a randomised controlled trial to evaluate an existing service.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our proposal was praised for its relevance and clear patient outcomes, but the application was twice rejected because both funders and reviewers insisted on a randomised controlled trial design, which we had found to be impractical, unacceptable to service users and potentially unethical.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The case study highlights continuing challenges for applied public health research in the current funding climate.</p

International criteria for electrocardiographic interpretation in athletes: Consensus statement.

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the leading cause of mortality in athletes during sport. A variety of mostly hereditary, structural or electrical cardiac disorders are associated with SCD in young athletes, the majority of which can be identified or suggested by abnormalities on a resting 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG). Whether used for diagnostic or screening purposes, physicians responsible for the cardiovascular care of athletes should be knowledgeable and competent in ECG interpretation in athletes. However, in most countries a shortage of physician expertise limits wider application of the ECG in the care of the athlete. A critical need exists for physician education in modern ECG interpretation that distinguishes normal physiological adaptations in athletes from distinctly abnormal findings suggestive of underlying pathology. Since the original 2010 European Society of Cardiology recommendations for ECG interpretation in athletes, ECG standards have evolved quickly, advanced by a growing body of scientific data and investigations that both examine proposed criteria sets and establish new evidence to guide refinements. On 26-27 February 2015, an international group of experts in sports cardiology, inherited cardiac disease, and sports medicine convened in Seattle, Washington (USA), to update contemporary standards for ECG interpretation in athletes. The objective of the meeting was to define and revise ECG interpretation standards based on new and emerging research and to develop a clear guide to the proper evaluation of ECG abnormalities in athletes. This statement represents an international consensus for ECG interpretation in athletes and provides expert opinion-based recommendations linking specific ECG abnormalities and the secondary evaluation for conditions associated with SCD

Search for gravitational wave bursts in LIGO's third science run

We report on a search for gravitational wave bursts in data from the three LIGO interferometric detectors during their third science run. The search targets subsecond bursts in the frequency range 100-1100 Hz for which no waveform model is assumed, and has a sensitivity in terms of the root-sum-square (rss) strain amplitude of hrss ~ 10^{-20} / sqrt(Hz). No gravitational wave signals were detected in the 8 days of analyzed data.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures. Amaldi-6 conference proceedings to be published in Classical and Quantum Gravit

Searching for a Stochastic Background of Gravitational Waves with LIGO

The Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) has performed the fourth science run, S4, with significantly improved interferometer sensitivities with respect to previous runs. Using data acquired during this science run, we place a limit on the amplitude of a stochastic background of gravitational waves. For a frequency independent spectrum, the new limit is $\Omega_{\rm GW} < 6.5 \times 10^{-5}$. This is currently the most sensitive result in the frequency range 51-150 Hz, with a factor of 13 improvement over the previous LIGO result. We discuss complementarity of the new result with other constraints on a stochastic background of gravitational waves, and we investigate implications of the new result for different models of this background.Comment: 37 pages, 16 figure

Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Human influences have likely already impacted the large-scale water cycle but natural variability and observational uncertainty are substantial. It is essential to maintain and improve observational capabilities to better characterize changes. Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes

Health Systems and Sustainability: Doctors and Consumers Differ on Threats and Solutions

Background: Healthcare systems face the problem of insufficient resources to meet the needs of ageing populations and increasing demands for access to new treatments. It is unclear whether doctors and consumers agree on the main challenges to health system sustainability. Methodology: We conducted a mail survey of Australian doctors (specialists and general practitioners) and a computer assisted telephone interview (CATI) of consumers to determine their views on contributors to increasing health care costs, rationing of services and involvement in health resource allocation decisions. Differences in responses are reported as odds ratios (OR) and 99% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Of 2948 doctors, 1139 (38.6%) responded; 533 of 826 consumers responded (64.5% response). Doctors were more concerned than consumers with the effects of an ageing population (OR 3.0; 99% CI 1.7, 5.4), and costs of new drugs and technologies (OR 5.1; CI 3.3, 8.0), but less likely to consider pharmaceutical promotional activities as a cost driver (OR 0.29, CI 0.22, 0.39). Doctors were more likely than consumers to view ‘community demand’ for new technologies as a major cost driver, (OR 1.6; 1.2, 2.2), but less likely to attribute increased costs to patients failing to take responsibility for their own health (OR 0.35; 0.24, 0.49). Like doctors, the majority of consumers saw a need for public consultation in decisions about funding for new treatments. Conclusions: Australian doctors and consumers hold different views on the sustainability of the healthcare system, and a number of key issues relating to costs, cost drivers, roles and responsibilities. Doctors recognise their dual responsibility to patients and society, see an important role for physicians in influencing resource allocation, and acknowledge their lack of skills in assessing treatments of marginal value. Consumers recognise cost pressures on the health system, but express willingness to be involved in health care decision making

Adverse Drug Reactions in Hospital In-Patients: A Prospective Analysis of 3695 Patient-Episodes

Adverse drug reactions (ADRs) are a major cause of hospital admissions, but recent data on the incidence and clinical characteristics of ADRs which occur following hospital admission, are lacking. Patients admitted to twelve wards over a six-month period in 2005 were assessed for ADRs throughout their admission. Suspected ADRs were recorded and analysed for causality, severity and avoidability and whether they increased the length of stay. Multivariable analysis was undertaken to identify the risk factors for ADRs. The 5% significance level was used when assessing factors for inclusion in multivariable models. Out of the 3695 patient episodes assessed for ADRs, 545 (14.7%, 95% CI 13.6–15.9%) experienced one or more ADRs. Half of ADRs were definitely or possibly avoidable. The patients experiencing ADRs were more likely to be older, female, taking a larger number of medicines, and had a longer length of stay than those without ADRs. However, the only significant predictor of ADRs, from the multivariable analysis of a representative sample of patients, was the number of medicines taken by the patient with each additional medication multiplying the hazard of an ADR episode by 1.14 (95% CI 1.09, 1.20). ADRs directly increased length of stay in 147 (26.8%) patients. The drugs most frequently associated with ADRs were diuretics, opioid analgesics, and anticoagulants. In conclusion, approximately one in seven hospital in-patients experience an ADR, which is a significant cause of morbidity, increasing the length of stay of patients by an average of 0.25 days/patient admission episode. The overall burden of ADRs on hospitals is high, and effective intervention strategies are urgently needed to reduce this burden