Asteroid 1986 DA: Radar evidence for a metallic composition

Radar observations of the near-Earth asteroid 1986 DA were carried out at the Arecibo Observatory in April 1986, two months after its discovery. Radar results are consistent with the hypothesis that 1986 HA is a piece of NiFe metal derived from the interior of a much larger object that melted, differentiated, cooled and subsequently was disrupted in a catastrophic collision. This 2-km asteroid might be (or have been part of) the parent body of some iron meteorites. Or 1986 DA might share the parentage and/or part of the dynamical history of some meteorites without ever having contributed any of its own ejecta to our meteorite sample. Analysis of the samples returned from 1986 DA might ultimately involve economic considerations. Meteoritic metal is mostly iron with about 8 percent nickel, but also contains substantial concentrations of precious and strategic metals, including approx. 1 ppm of gold and approx. 10 ppm of platinum group elements. If these abundances apply to 1986 DA, it contains some 10(exp 16) g of iron, 10 (exp 15) g of nickel, 10(exp 11) g of platinum group metals, and 10(exp 10) g of gold

Suzaku measurement of Abell 2204's intracluster gas temperature profile out to 1800 kpc

Context: Measurements of intracluster gas temperatures out to large radii are important for the use of clusters for precision cosmology and for studies of cluster physics. Previous attempts to measure robust temperatures at cluster virial radii failed. Aims: The goal of this work is to measure the temperature profile of the very relaxed galaxy cluster Abell 2204 out to large radii, possibly reaching the virial radius. Methods: Taking advantage of its low particle background due to its low-Earth orbit, Suzaku data are used to measure the outer temperature profile of Abell 2204. These data are combined with Chandra and XMM-Newton data of the same cluster in order to make the connection to the inner regions, unresolved by Suzaku, and to determine the smearing due to Suzaku's PSF. Results: The temperature profile of Abell 2204 is determined from 10 kpc to 1800 kpc, close to an estimate of r200 (the approximation to the virial radius). The temperature rises steeply from below 4 keV in the very center up to more than 8 keV in the intermediate range and then decreases again to about 4 keV at the largest radii. Varying the measured particle background normalization artificially by +-10 percent does not change the results significantly. Predictions for outer temperature profiles based on hydrodynamic simulations show good agreement. In particular, we find the observed temperature profile to be slightly steeper but consistent with a drop of a factor of 0.6 from 0.3 r200 to r200, as predicted by simulations. Conclusions: Temperature measurements up to the virial radius seem feasible with Suzaku, when a careful analysis of the different background components and the effects of the PSF is performed. The result obtained here indicates that numerical simulations capture the intracluster gas physics well in cluster outskirts.Comment: 7 pages; Astronomy and Astrophysics, accepted; additional systematic effects have been quantified, results unchanged; also available at http://www.reiprich.ne

Shape, shear and flexion II - Quantifying the flexion formalism for extended sources with the ray-bundle method

Flexion-based weak gravitational lensing analysis is proving to be a useful adjunct to traditional shear-based techniques. As flexion arises from gradients across an image, analytic and numerical techniques are required to investigate flexion predictions for extended image/source pairs. Using the Schwarzschild lens model, we demonstrate that the ray-bundle method for gravitational lensing can be used to accurately recover second flexion, and is consistent with recovery of zero first flexion. Using lens plane to source plane bundle propagation, we find that second flexion can be recovered with an error no worse than 1% for bundle radii smaller than {\Delta}{\theta} = 0.01 {\theta}_E and lens plane impact pararameters greater than {\theta}_E + {\Delta}{\theta}, where {\theta}_E is the angular Einstein radius. Using source plane to lens plane bundle propagation, we demonstrate the existence of a preferred flexion zone. For images at radii closer to the lens than the inner boundary of this zone, indicative of the true strong lensing regime, the flexion formalism should be used with caution (errors greater than 5% for extended image/source pairs). We also define a shear zone boundary, beyond which image shapes are essentially indistinguishable from ellipses (1% error in ellipticity). While suggestive that a traditional weak lensing analysis is satisfactory beyond this boundary, a potentially detectable non-zero flexion signal remains.Comment: 14 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Societ

Follow the leader! The peer effect in aid supply decisions

This study assesses the existence of imitative behaviour among donors in terms of their aid supply. The urgency in addressing this subject is motivated by an increasing degree of aid volatility and unpredictability which may be linked to donors’ imitative behaviour. Our results highlight that while any connection among donor peers is a potential channel for the transmission of aid volatility, the extent of such volatility decreases significantly in the presence of established imitative behaviour. This result leads to the consideration that the promotion of donor imitative behavior would contribute to containing the current growing trend of volatility in aid supply

Vision 2020: A View of Our Energy Future

The Morning Address was given by The Honorable George Allen. “The Regulatory Framework: Where Are We Headed?” session by Eric Finkbeiner, Senior Adviser for Policy, Office of Governor Robert McDonnell; David Christian, Chief Executive Officer, Dominion Generation; and Professor Joel Eisen, University of Richmond School of Law. Professor Noah Sachs, University of Richmond School of Law, served as moderator. “The Future of Coal” session by John Lain, Partner at McGuireWoods LLP; Cale Jaffe, Senior Attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center; and W. Thomas Hudson, President of W. Thomas Hudson and Associates, Inc. and of the Virginia Coal Association. Stephen E. Taylor, Allen Chair Editor for the University of Richmond Law Review, served as moderator. “Nuclear Power: Is There a ‘Renaissance’?” session by Donald Irwin, Hunton & Williams; Christopher Paine, Director of Nuclear Program, Natural Resources Defense Council (invited); and Michael H. Montgomery, Vice President of Fuel Development, Lightbridge Corporation. Tricia Dunlap, Robert R. Merhige, Jr. Fellow at the University of Richmond School of Law, served as moderator. “Emerging Issues in Energy Policy” session by Mark Rosen, Deputy General Counsel, CNA Corporation; Jefferson Reynolds, Water Policy Director with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality; Kruskaia Sierra-Escalante, Senior Counsel for the International Finance Corporation; and Edward Lowe, General Manager for Renewable Energy Market Development, GE Energy. Andrea W. Wortzel, Counsel with Hunton & Williams and Vice Chair of the Environmental Law Section of the Virginia State Bar, served as moderator. The Closing Address was given by The Honorable Carol M. Browner, Assistant to the President for Energy and Climate Change and Former Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (invited)

Localized precipitation and runoff on Mars

We use the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) to simulate lake storms on Mars, finding that intense localized precipitation will occur for lake size >=10^3 km^2. Mars has a low-density atmosphere, so deep convection can be triggered by small amounts of latent heat release. In our reference simulation, the buoyant plume lifts vapor above condensation level, forming a 20km-high optically-thick cloud. Ice grains grow to 200 microns radius and fall near (or in) the lake at mean rates up to 1.5 mm/hr water equivalent (maximum rates up to 6 mm/hr water equivalent). Because atmospheric temperatures outside the surface layer are always well below 273K, supersaturation and condensation begin at low altitudes above lakes on Mars. In contrast to Earth lake-effect storms, lake storms on Mars involve continuous precipitation, and their vertical velocities and plume heights exceed those of tropical thunderstorms on Earth. Convection does not reach above the planetary boundary layer for lakes O(10^2) mbar. Instead, vapor is advected downwind with little cloud formation. Precipitation occurs as snow, and the daytime radiative forcing at the land surface due to plume vapor and storm clouds is too small to melt snow directly (<+10 W/m^2). However, if orbital conditions are favorable, then the snow may be seasonally unstable to melting and produce runoff to form channels. We calculate the probability of melting by running thermal models over all possible orbital conditions and weighting their outcomes by probabilities given by Laskar et al., 2004. We determine that for an equatorial vapor source, sunlight 15% fainter than at present, and snowpack with albedo 0.28 (0.35), melting may occur with 4%(0.1%) probability. This rises to 56%(12%) if the ancient greenhouse effect was modestly (6K) greater than today.Comment: Submitted to JGR Planet

Cost-effectiveness of a community-delivered multicomponent intervention compared with enhanced standard care of obese adolescents: cost-utility analysis alongside a randomised controlled trial (the HELP trial)

Objective To undertake a cost-utility analysis of a motivational multicomponent lifestyle-modification intervention in a community setting (the Healthy Eating Lifestyle Programme (HELP)) compared with enhanced standard care. Design Cost-utility analysis alongside a randomised controlled trial. Setting Community settings in Greater London, England. Participants 174 young people with obesity aged 12–19 years. Interventions Intervention participants received 12 one to-one sessions across 6months, addressing lifestyle behaviours and focusing on motivation to change and self esteem rather than weight change, delivered by trained graduate health workers in community settings. Control participants received a single 1-hour one-to-one nurse delivered session providing didactic weight-management advice. Main outcome measures Mean costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) per participant over a 1-year period using resource use data and utility values collected during the trial. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated and non-parametric bootstrapping was conducted to generate a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC). Results Mean intervention costs per participant were £918 for HELP and £68 for enhanced standard care. There were no significant differences between the two groups in mean resource use per participant for any type of healthcare contact. Adjusted costs were significantly higher in the intervention group (mean incremental costs for HELP vs enhanced standard care £1003 (95% CI £837 to £1168)). There were no differences in adjusted QALYs between groups (mean QALYs gained 0.008 (95% CI −0.031 to 0.046)). The ICER of the HELP versus enhanced standard care was £120 630 per QALY gained. The CEAC shows that the probability that HELP was cost-effective relative to the enhanced standard care was 0.002 or 0.046, at a threshold of £20 000 or £30 000 per QALY gained. Conclusions We did not find evidence that HELP was more effective than a single educational session in improving quality of life in a sample of adolescents with obesity. HELP was associated with higher costs, mainly due to the extra costs of delivering the intervention and therefore is not cost-effective

Measurement of halo properties with weak lensing shear and flexion

We constrain properties of cluster haloes by performing likelihood analysis using lensing shear and flexion data. We test our analysis using two mock cluster haloes: an isothermal ellipsoid (SIE) model and a more realistic elliptical Navarro-Frenk-White (eNFW) model. For both haloes, we find that flexion is more sensitive to the halo ellipticity than shear. The introduction of flexion information significantly improves the constraints on halo ellipticity, orientation and mass. We also point out that there is a degeneracy between the mass and the ellipticity of SIE models in the lensing signal.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures, MNRAS accepte