Is there an uncertainty-laffer curve?

This paper examines the impact of uncertainty on the capital-output ratio and per capita growth for a group of developed countries. Uncertainty seems to have non-linear effects on economic growth and positive effects on the capital-output ratio.

Uncertainty, financial development and economic growth: an empirical analysis

This paper examines whether financial sector development may partly undo growth-reducing effects of policy uncertainty. By performing a cross-country growth regression for the 1970-1995 period I find evidence that countries with a more developed financial sector are better able to nullify the negative effects of policy uncertainty on per capita economic growth. For countries with a very well developed financial sector, it may even be the case that an increase in policy uncertainty positively affects per capita economic growth. This clearly indicates the relevance of financial sector development.

Financial development and the transmission of monetary shocks

We investigate whether the financial system dampens or exacerbates monetary shocks of inflation uncertainty to the economy. Our GMM-estimates for 88 countries over a period of 25 years show that inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant impact on the volatility of economic growth. More importantly, we find that financial development dampens the negative effects of inflation uncertainty on the volatility of economic growth. This confirms the importance of a well-developed financial sector.

Foreign direct investment: flows, volatility and growth in developing countries

This paper contributes to the literature on FDI and economic growth. We deviate from previous studies by introducing measures of the volatility of FDI inflows. As introduced into the model, these are predicted to have a negative effect on growth. We estimate the standard model using cross-section, panel data and instrumental variable techniques. Whilst all results are not entirely robust, there is a consistent finding that FDI has a positive effect on growth whereas volatility of FDI has a negative impact. The evidence for a positive effect of FDI is not sensitive to which other explanatory variables are included. In particular, it is not conditional on the level of human capital (as found in some previous studies). There is a suggestion that it is not the volatility of FDI per se that retards growth but that such volatility captures the growth-retarding effects of unobserved variables.

Joint liability lending: a note

This note argues that the joint liability contracting equilibria worked out in Ghatak(2000) have a serious drawback in that, even though incentive compatible ex ante, they violate ex post rationality. For such contracts to be feasible, banks should be able to extract more under failure than under success. However, when we alllow for this, it may help explain some important empirical observations on joint liability lending.

Capital market imperfections, uncertainty and corporate investment in the Czech Republic

The well-known Klein-Monti model of bank behavior considers a monopolistic bank. We demonstrate that this model’s results on the comparative static effects of a change in the exogenous interbank market interest rate do not necessarily hold in oligopolistic Cournot or Stackelberg generalizations. Introducing asymmetries in the cost functions of the banks, or in their way of conduct, may imply counterintuitive effects on the individual banks’ volumes of loans and deposits. Keywords: Bank behavior, Cournot oligopoly, Stackelberg oligopoly

Financial reform and information problems in capital markets: an empirical analysis of the Chilean experience, 1983-1992

This paper introduces a general, formal treatment of dynamic constraints, i.e., constraints on the state changes that are allowed in a given state space. Such dynamic constraints can be seen as representations of "real world" constraints in a managerial context. The notions of transition, reversible and irreversible transition, and transition relation will be introduced. The link with Kripke models (for modal logics) is also made explicit. Several (subtle) examples of dynamic constraints will be given. Some important classes of dynamic constraints in a database context will be identified, e.g. various forms of cumulativity, non-decreasing values, constraints on initial and final values, life cycles, changing life cycles, and transition and constant dependencies. Several properties of these dependencies will be treated. For instance, it turns out that functional dependencies can be considered as "degenerated" transition dependencies. Also, the distinction between primary keys and alternate keys is reexamined, from a dynamic point of view.

Corporate ownership as a means to solve adverse selection problems in a model of asymmetric information and credit rationing

This paper analyzes an asymmetric information model where the financing needs of entrepreneurs are obtained from two sources. We show that adverse selection is only important if the credit constraint of banks is not too tight. Next, we show that banks can induce a pattern of corporate ownership, whereby safe firms end up owning shares in risky firms. This particular type of an incentive compatible debt contract can solve the adverse selection problem caused by credit rationing under asymmetric information. Our theory gives a theoretical backing for the existence of business groups containing firms that operate in diversified markets.

Uncertainty and investment of Dutch firms: an empirical analysis using stock market data

This paper examines the investment-uncertainty relationship for a panel of Dutch firms. The uncertainty proxy is derived from daily stock market prices of individual firms. We show that some macro indicators, in combination with firm fixed effects, are able to give a reasonable explanation of the uncertainty a firm is faced with, and hence can be used to extract the exogenous component of uncertainty. The investment-uncertainty relationship appears to be non-linear: for low levels of uncertainty there is a positive effect on investment, whereas for high levels of uncertainty the effect becomes negative.

Does Financial Liberalization Influence Saving, Investment and Economic Growth? Evidence from 25 Emerging Market Economies, 1973-96

financial liberalization, saving, investment, economic growth