A Nonlinear Super-Exponential Rational Model of Speculative Financial Bubbles

Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic finite-time singularity formula transforms a Gaussian white noise into a rich time series possessing all the stylized facts of empirical prices, as well as accelerated speculative bubbles preceding crashes. We use the formula to invert the two years of price history prior to the recent crash on the Nasdaq (april 2000) and prior to the crash in the Hong Kong market associated with the Asian crisis in early 1994. These complex price dynamics are captured using only one exponent controlling the explosion, the variance and mean of the underlying random walk. This offers a new and powerful detection tool of speculative bubbles and herding behavior.Comment: Latex document of 24 pages including 5 eps figure

Notes on the distribution and habitat of Omethes marginatus LeConte (Coleoptera: Omethidae)

The known distribution of a rarely collected omethid, Omethes marginatus LeConte (Coleoptera), includes Arkansas, Connecticut, District of Columbia, Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. Collection and ecological notes on recent collections in Arkansas, Indiana, and Virginia are presented

Wee1-Regulated Apoptosis Mediated by the Crk Adaptor Protein in Xenopus Egg Extracts

Many of the biochemical reactions of apoptotic cell death, including mitochondrial cytochrome c release and caspase activation, can be reconstituted in cell-free extracts derived from Xenopus eggs. In addition, because caspase activation does not occur until the egg extract has been incubated for several hours on the bench, upstream signaling processes occurring before full apoptosis are rendered accessible to biochemical manipulation. We reported previously that the adaptor protein Crk is required for apoptotic signaling in egg extracts (Evans, E.K., W. Lu, S.L. Strum, B.J. Mayer, and S. Kornbluth. 1997. EMBO (Eur. Mol. Biol. Organ.) J. 16:230–241). Moreover, we demonstrated that removal of Crk Src homology (SH)2 or SH3 interactors from the extracts prevented apoptosis. We now report the finding that the relevant Crk SH2-interacting protein, important for apoptotic signaling in the extract, is the well-known cell cycle regulator, Wee1. We have demonstrated a specific interaction between tyrosine-phosphorylated Wee1 and the Crk SH2 domain and have shown that recombinant Wee1 can restore apoptosis to an extract depleted of SH2 interactors. Moreover, exogenous Wee1 accelerated apoptosis in egg extracts, and this acceleration was largely dependent on the presence of endogenous Crk protein. As other Cdk inhibitors, such as roscovitine and Myt1, did not act like Wee1 to accelerate apoptosis, we propose that Wee1–Crk complexes signal in a novel apoptotic pathway, which may be unrelated to Wee1's role as a cell cycle regulator

The Decline of Remarriage: Evidence From German Village Populations in the Eighteenth and Nineteenth Centuries

Family reconstitution data for fourteen German village populations permit the examination of remarriage during the eighteenth and nineteenth cen turies. The results provide compelling evidence for a secular decline in the tenden cy to remarry. Pronounced age and sex differentials in the likelihood of remar riage were evident: widows were far less likely to remarry than widowers, and the probability of remarriage declined rapidly with age, particularly for women. The probability of remarriage was also inversely associated with the number and age of children. There were, however, no clear differences in either the probability of remarriage or its tendency to decline over time among major occupational groups. The decline in remarriage probabilities was caused in part by declines in adult mortality, which gradually raised the ages of surviving spouses to levels at which remarriage has historically been rather unlikely. However, age-specific marriage probabilities also declined, affecting both men and women and all oc cupational groups, suggesting the presence of a social change of wide scope. Some comments on possible factors contributing to the decline of remarriage are presented. The need for a comprehensive explanation of remarriage trends and differentials remains an important challenge for family historians.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68212/2/10.1177_036319908501000103.pd

Genetic association study of QT interval highlights role for calcium signaling pathways in myocardial repolarization.

The QT interval, an electrocardiographic measure reflecting myocardial repolarization, is a heritable trait. QT prolongation is a risk factor for ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death (SCD) and could indicate the presence of the potentially lethal mendelian long-QT syndrome (LQTS). Using a genome-wide association and replication study in up to 100,000 individuals, we identified 35 common variant loci associated with QT interval that collectively explain ∼8-10% of QT-interval variation and highlight the importance of calcium regulation in myocardial repolarization. Rare variant analysis of 6 new QT interval-associated loci in 298 unrelated probands with LQTS identified coding variants not found in controls but of uncertain causality and therefore requiring validation. Several newly identified loci encode proteins that physically interact with other recognized repolarization proteins. Our integration of common variant association, expression and orthogonal protein-protein interaction screens provides new insights into cardiac electrophysiology and identifies new candidate genes for ventricular arrhythmias, LQTS and SCD

Tax Evasion, Tax Avoidance and Tax Planning in Australia: The participation in mass-marketed tax avoidance schemes in the Pilbara region of Western Australia in the 1990s

This paper will examine the development of mass-marketed tax avoidance schemes in Australia. It will consider changes in approach to tax avoidance from the ‘bottom of the harbour’ schemes of the 1960s and 1970s to the mass-marketed tax avoidance schemes of the 1990s. It will examine the changing structure of tax avoidance from individually crafted tax avoidance structures designed by accountants and lawyers used by high wealth individuals to mass produced structures targeted at highly paid, and therefore highly taxed, blue collar workers in Australia’s mining industry in the 1990s. In the latter half of the twentieth century ‘unacceptable’ tax planning went from highly expensive, individually ‘tailor made’ structures afforded and used only by the very wealthy, to inexpensive replicated structures marketed to skilled and unskilled tradespeople and labourers. By 1998 over 42 000 Australian taxpayers were engaged in tax avoidance schemes with the highest proportion focussed in the mining regions of Western Australia. In the remote and inhospitable mining community of Pannawonica, which has one of the highest paid workforces in Australia, the Australian Taxation Office identified that as many as one in five taxpayers were engaged in a mass-marketed tax avoidance scheme. The paper will identify the causes of these changes, including the advent of the computerised information technology which permitted ‘mass production’ of business structures designed to exploit business incentives in the Australian taxation system in the 1990s. It will also set these developments within the broader context of the tax compliance culture prevailing in Australia and overseas during this period

IgCaller for reconstructing immunoglobulin gene rearrangements and oncogenic translocations from whole-genome sequencing in lymphoid neoplasms

Immunoglobulin (Ig) gene rearrangements and oncogenic translocations are routinely assessed during the characterization of B cell neoplasms and stratification of patients with distinct clinical and biological features, with the assessment done using Sanger sequencing, targeted next-generation sequencing, or fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). Currently, a complete Ig characterization cannot be extracted from whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data due to the inherent complexity of the Ig loci. Here, we introduce IgCaller, an algorithm designed to fully characterize Ig gene rearrangements and oncogenic translocations from short-read WGS data. Using a cohort of 404 patients comprising different subtypes of B cell neoplasms, we demonstrate that IgCaller identifies both heavy and light chain rearrangements to provide additional information on their functionality, somatic mutational status, class switch recombination, and oncogenic Ig translocations. Our data thus support IgCaller to be a reliable alternative to Sanger sequencing and FISH for studying the genetic properties of the Ig loci.We are indebted to the Genomics Core Facility of the Institut d’Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS) for the technical support, to R. Siebert and D. Huebschmann for sharing the CSR regions, and to K. Stamatopoulos, E. Vlachonikola and F. Psomopoulos for their helpful comments on the manuscript. We thank R. Eils, P. Lichter, C. von Kalle, S. Fröhling, H. Glimm, M. Zapatka, S. Wolf, K. Beck, and J. Kirchhof for infrastructure and pipeline development within DKFZ-HIPO and NCT POP. This study was supported by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III and the European Regional Development Fund “Una manera de hacer Europa” (PMP15/00007 to E.C.), the “la Caixa” Foundation (CLLEvolution-LCF/PR/HR17/52150017, Health Research 2017 Program HR17-00221 to E.C.), the National Institute of Health “Molecular Diagnosis, Prognosis, and Therapeutic Targets in Mantle Cell Lymphoma” (P01CA229100 to E.C.), and CERCA Programme/Generalitat de Catalunya. F.N. is supported by a pre-doctoral fellowship of the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (BES-2016-076372). F.M. is supported by the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center NCI Core Grant (P30 CA 008748). E.C. is an Academia Researcher of the “Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats” (ICREA) of the Generalitat de Catalunya. This work was partially developed at the Centre Esther Koplowitz (CEK, Barcelona, Spain).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Influence of ARHGEF3 and RHOA Knockdown on ACTA2 and Other Genes in Osteoblasts and Osteoclasts

Osteoporosis is a common bone disease that has a strong genetic component. Genome-wide linkage studies have identified the chromosomal region 3p14-p22 as a quantitative trait locus for bone mineral density (BMD). We have previously identified associations between variation in two related genes located in 3p14-p22, ARHGEF3 and RHOA, and BMD in women. In this study we performed knockdown of these genes using small interfering RNA (siRNA) in human osteoblast-like and osteoclast-like cells in culture, with subsequent microarray analysis to identify genes differentially regulated from a list of 264 candidate genes. Validation of selected findings was then carried out in additional human cell lines/cultures using quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR). The qRT-PCR results showed significant down-regulation of the ACTA2 gene, encoding the cytoskeletal protein alpha 2 actin, in response to RHOA knockdown in both osteoblast-like (P<0.001) and osteoclast-like cells (P = 0.002). RHOA knockdown also caused up-regulation of the PTH1R gene, encoding the parathyroid hormone 1 receptor, in Saos-2 osteoblast-like cells (P<0.001). Other findings included down-regulation of the TNFRSF11B gene, encoding osteoprotegerin, in response to ARHGEF3 knockdown in the Saos-2 and hFOB 1.19 osteoblast-like cells (P = 0.003– 0.02), and down-regulation of ARHGDIA, encoding the Rho GDP dissociation inhibitor alpha, in response to RHOA knockdown in osteoclast-like cells (P<0.001). These studies identify ARHGEF3 and RHOA as potential regulators of a number of genes in bone cells, including TNFRSF11B, ARHGDIA, PTH1R and ACTA2, with influences on the latter evident in both osteoblast-like and osteoclast-like cells. This adds further evidence to previous studies suggesting a role for the ARHGEF3 and RHOA genes in bone metabolism