Estimation of loan portfolio risk on the basis of Markov chain model

A change of shares of credits portfolio is described by Markov chain with discrete time. A credit state is determined on as an accessory to some group of credits depending on presence of indebtedness and its terms. We use a model with discrete time and fix the system state through identical time intervals - once a month. It is obvious that the matrix of transitive probabilities is known incompletely. Various approaches to the matrix estimation are studied and methods of forecast the portfolio risk are proposed. The portfolio risk is set as a share of problematic loans. We propose a method to calculate necessary reserves on the base of the considered model. © 2013 IFIP International Federation for Information Processing.German Sci. Found. (DFG) Eur. Sci. Found. (ESF);Natl. Inst. Res. Comput. Sci. Control France (INRIA);DFG Research Center MATHEON;Weierstrass Institute for Applied Analysis and Stochastics (WIAS);European Patent Offic

Enhancement of the magnetic anisotropy of nanometer-sized Co clusters: influence of the surface and of the inter-particle interactions

We study the magnetic properties of spherical Co clusters with diameters between 0.8 nm and 5.4 nm (25 to 7500$ atoms) prepared by sequential sputtering of Co and Al2O3. The particle size distribution has been determined from the equilibrium susceptibility and magnetization data and it is compared to previous structural characterizations. The distribution of activation energies was independently obtained from a scaling plot of the ac susceptibility. Combining these two distributions we have accurately determined the effective anisotropy constant Keff. We find that Keff is enhanced with respect to the bulk value and that it is dominated by a strong anisotropy induced at the surface of the clusters. Interactions between the magnetic moments of adjacent layers are shown to increase the effective activation energy barrier for the reversal of the magnetic moments. Finally, this reversal is shown to proceed classically down to the lowest temperature investigated (1.8 K).Comment: 13 figures submitted to Phys. Rev.

Tomato: a crop species amenable to improvement by cellular and molecular methods

Tomato is a crop plant with a relatively small DNA content per haploid genome and a well developed genetics. Plant regeneration from explants and protoplasts is feasable which led to the development of efficient transformation procedures. In view of the current data, the isolation of useful mutants at the cellular level probably will be of limited value in the genetic improvement of tomato. Protoplast fusion may lead to novel combinations of organelle and nuclear DNA (cybrids), whereas this technique also provides a means of introducing genetic information from alien species into tomato. Important developments have come from molecular approaches. Following the construction of an RFLP map, these RFLP markers can be used in tomato to tag quantitative traits bred in from related species. Both RFLP's and transposons are in the process of being used to clone desired genes for which no gene products are known. Cloned genes can be introduced and potentially improve specific properties of tomato especially those controlled by single genes. Recent results suggest that, in principle, phenotypic mutants can be created for cloned and characterized genes and will prove their value in further improving the cultivated tomato.

Reducing nutrients, organic micropollutants, antibiotic resistance, and toxicity in rural wastewater effluent with subsurface filtration treatment technology

The ability of a sub-surface treatment filtration system to remove nutrients, thirty-nine organic contaminants, metals, and antibiotic resistant gene (ARG)-bearing organisms, and to attenuate acute toxicity of wastewater lagoon effluents, was assessed. Significant removal was observed for nutrients between the conventional primary and secondary sewage lagoons, with further average attenuation of 59% and 50% of ammonia and total phosphorus (TP), respectively, within the filter. Effluent concentrations of ammonia ranged from 0.4 to 2.6mg/L and concentrations of TP from 1 to 4.1mg/L, with decreasing acute toxicity from primary to secondary lagoons, and no toxicity observed in the filtration system based on Microtox® assays. Most organic micropollutants were also efficiently removed between the primary and secondary lagoons (e.g., up to 98% for atenolol). However, in general, little attenuation occurred within the filter for estrogenic compounds (e.g., 17α-ethinylestradiol); β-blockers (e.g., metoprolol); antidepressants (e.g., fluoxetine-Prozac); antibacterial agents (e.g., triclosan), non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (e.g., diclofenac); lipid regulators (e.g., clofibric acid); and macrolide (e.g., clarithromycin) and sulfonamide (e.g., sulfamethazine) antibiotics; or metals (Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, and Zn). This lack of removal was likely due to a minimal hydraulic residence time within the filter (~6h) under current operating conditions. The lagoon treatment system effectively removed ~99% of sulfonamide resistant bacteria, but the filter both reduced tetracycline-resistant bacteria (~58%) in wastewater and harbored them in the biofilms, as relative abundances of sul and tet genes were greatest there. The filter also harbored nitrifying and denitrifying bacteria, respectively, contributing to N removal. These results suggest that the constructed sub-surface treatment filtration system can provide a low-cost, low-maintenance, and effective means to reduce nutrient loading and improve microbial community structure and function

Search for a W' boson decaying to a bottom quark and a top quark in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

Results are presented from a search for a W' boson using a dataset corresponding to 5.0 inverse femtobarns of integrated luminosity collected during 2011 by the CMS experiment at the LHC in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV. The W' boson is modeled as a heavy W boson, but different scenarios for the couplings to fermions are considered, involving both left-handed and right-handed chiral projections of the fermions, as well as an arbitrary mixture of the two. The search is performed in the decay channel W' to t b, leading to a final state signature with a single lepton (e, mu), missing transverse energy, and jets, at least one of which is tagged as a b-jet. A W' boson that couples to fermions with the same coupling constant as the W, but to the right-handed rather than left-handed chiral projections, is excluded for masses below 1.85 TeV at the 95% confidence level. For the first time using LHC data, constraints on the W' gauge coupling for a set of left- and right-handed coupling combinations have been placed. These results represent a significant improvement over previously published limits.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters B. Replaced with version publishe

Search for the standard model Higgs boson decaying into two photons in pp collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV

A search for a Higgs boson decaying into two photons is described. The analysis is performed using a dataset recorded by the CMS experiment at the LHC from pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV, which corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 4.8 inverse femtobarns. Limits are set on the cross section of the standard model Higgs boson decaying to two photons. The expected exclusion limit at 95% confidence level is between 1.4 and 2.4 times the standard model cross section in the mass range between 110 and 150 GeV. The analysis of the data excludes, at 95% confidence level, the standard model Higgs boson decaying into two photons in the mass range 128 to 132 GeV. The largest excess of events above the expected standard model background is observed for a Higgs boson mass hypothesis of 124 GeV with a local significance of 3.1 sigma. The global significance of observing an excess with a local significance greater than 3.1 sigma anywhere in the search range 110-150 GeV is estimated to be 1.8 sigma. More data are required to ascertain the origin of this excess.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters

Measurement of the Lambda(b) cross section and the anti-Lambda(b) to Lambda(b) ratio with Lambda(b) to J/Psi Lambda decays in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The Lambda(b) differential production cross section and the cross section ratio anti-Lambda(b)/Lambda(b) are measured as functions of transverse momentum pt(Lambda(b)) and rapidity abs(y(Lambda(b))) in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV using data collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC. The measurements are based on Lambda(b) decays reconstructed in the exclusive final state J/Psi Lambda, with the subsequent decays J/Psi to an opposite-sign muon pair and Lambda to proton pion, using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.9 inverse femtobarns. The product of the cross section times the branching ratio for Lambda(b) to J/Psi Lambda versus pt(Lambda(b)) falls faster than that of b mesons. The measured value of the cross section times the branching ratio for pt(Lambda(b)) > 10 GeV and abs(y(Lambda(b))) < 2.0 is 1.06 +/- 0.06 +/- 0.12 nb, and the integrated cross section ratio for anti-Lambda(b)/Lambda(b) is 1.02 +/- 0.07 +/- 0.09, where the uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters

Search for new physics in events with opposite-sign leptons, jets, and missing transverse energy in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

A search is presented for physics beyond the standard model (BSM) in final states with a pair of opposite-sign isolated leptons accompanied by jets and missing transverse energy. The search uses LHC data recorded at a center-of-mass energy sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the CMS detector, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of approximately 5 inverse femtobarns. Two complementary search strategies are employed. The first probes models with a specific dilepton production mechanism that leads to a characteristic kinematic edge in the dilepton mass distribution. The second strategy probes models of dilepton production with heavy, colored objects that decay to final states including invisible particles, leading to very large hadronic activity and missing transverse energy. No evidence for an event yield in excess of the standard model expectations is found. Upper limits on the BSM contributions to the signal regions are deduced from the results, which are used to exclude a region of the parameter space of the constrained minimal supersymmetric extension of the standard model. Additional information related to detector efficiencies and response is provided to allow testing specific models of BSM physics not considered in this paper.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Measurement of isolated photon production in pp and PbPb collisions at sqrt(sNN) = 2.76 TeV

Isolated photon production is measured in proton-proton and lead-lead collisions at nucleon-nucleon centre-of-mass energies of 2.76 TeV in the pseudorapidity range |eta|<1.44 and transverse energies ET between 20 and 80 GeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. The measured ET spectra are found to be in good agreement with next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD predictions. The ratio of PbPb to pp isolated photon ET-differential yields, scaled by the number of incoherent nucleon-nucleon collisions, is consistent with unity for all PbPb reaction centralities.Comment: Submitted to Physics Letters