Global assessment of spatiotemporal changes of frequency of terrestrial wind speed

Wind energy, an important component of clean energy, is highly dictated by the disposable wind speed within the working regime of wind turbines (typically between 3 and 25 m s−1 at the hub height). Following a continuous reduction ('stilling') of global annual mean surface wind speed (SWS) since the 1960s, recently, researchers have reported a 'reversal' since 2011. However, little attention has been paid to the evolution of the effective wind speed for wind turbines. Since wind speed at hub height increases with SWS through power law, we focus on the wind speed frequency variations at various ranges of SWS through hourly in-situ observations and quantify their contributions to the average SWS changes over 1981–2021. We found that during the stilling period (here 1981–2010), the strong SWS (⩾ 5.0 m s−1, the 80th of global SWS) with decreasing frequency contributed 220.37% to the continuous weakening of mean SWS. During the reversal period of SWS (here 2011–2021), slight wind (0 m s−1 < SWS < 2.9 m s−1) contributed 64.07% to a strengthening of SWS. The strengthened strong wind (⩾ 5.0 m s−1) contributed 73.38% to the trend change of SWS from decrease to increase in 2010. Based on the synthetic capacity factor series calculated by considering commercial wind turbines (General Electric GE 2.5-120 model with rated power 2.5 MW) at the locations of the meteorological stations, the frequency changes resulted in a reduction of wind power energy (−10.02 TWh yr−1, p < 0.001) from 1981 to 2010 and relatively weak recovery (2.67 TWh yr−1, p < 0.05) during 2011–2021.This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42071022), Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Fund (2022A1515240070) and the start-up fund provided by Southern University of Science and Technology (no. 29/Y01296122). C A-M was supported by the IBER-STILLING (RTI2018-095749-A-I00, MCIU/AEI/FEDER,UE); VENTS (GVA-AICO/2021/023); the CSIC Interdisciplinary Thematic Platform (PTI) Clima (PTI-CLIMA); and the 2021 Leonardo Grant for Researchers and Cultural Creators, BBVA Foundation. RJHD was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and by the UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund. SJ was supported by the Ramon y Cajal program and the OPEN project (RYC2020-029993-I and TED2021-131074B-I00, MCIU/AEI/FEDER,UE)

Association of a Public Health Campaign About Coronavirus Disease 2019 Promoted by News Media and a Social Influencer With Self-reported Personal Hygiene and Physical Distancing in the Netherlands

Importance: In the absence of a vaccine and therapeutic agent, personal hygiene and physical distancing are essential measures to contain the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Objective: To determine whether a social media campaign, targeted at the gaps in behavior on personal hygiene and physical distancing and distributed nationwide via digital news media, may be an effective method to improve behavior and help to inhibit person-to-person transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Design, Setting, and Participants: This survey study was designed to uncover self-reported gaps in behavior regarding personal hygiene and physical distancing in the Netherlands. A diagnostic survey was distributed by a large national newspaper (De Telegraaf) and a popular social influencer (Govert Sweep) on March 17, 2020, and was completed by 16 072 participants. Analysis of these outcomes showed that coughing and sneezing in the elbow was done well, but that handwashing, face touching, and physical distancing showed serious gaps compared with advised behavior. This diagnostic information was used to design infographics and a video targeted at repairing these gaps in behavior. The video and infographics were distributed on a national level on March 21, 2020, followed by a postcampaign survey to measure the results on March 24, 2020. Data analysis was performed from March to April 2020. Exposure: Exposed participants were those who viewed the infographics and/or video. Main Outcomes and Measures: Improvement on the extent of handwashing in all areas, handwashing duration of 20 seconds or longer, awareness on face touching, and physical distancing were measured according to responses on the postcampaign survey. Results: A total of 17 189 participants (mean [SD] age, 47.61 [13.57] years; 9100 women [52.9%]) responded to the postcampaign survey. The news article in De Telegraaf was read more than 2 million times, and the influencer video was watched more than 80 000 times. Cross-sectional analysis of the postcampaign survey using logistic regression correcting for age, gender, and educational level showed that exposure to the video plus infographics (827 participants) (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.14; 95% CI, 1.83-2.50; P < .001) and to the infographics alone (11 348 participants) (adjusted OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.22-1.40; P < .001) were positively associated with washing hands in all areas compared with the unexposed group (4751 participants). In addition, exposure to the video plus infographics (adjusted OR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.59-2.16; P < .001) and to the infographics alone (adjusted OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.19-1.36; P < .001) were positively associated with washing hands long enough compared with the unexposed group. Exposure to the video alone was not associated with improved handwashing. Compared with the unexposed group, exposure to the infographics alone and video plus infographics were associated with improvements in physical distancing when the participant had COVID-19 syptoms (infographics alone, adjusted OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03-1.17; P = .006; video plus infographics, adjusted OR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.69-0.91; P = .001) and face touching

Intensive Cytokine induction in Pandemic H1N1 Influenza Virus Infection Accompanied by Robust Production of IL-10 and IL-6

BACKGROUND: The innate immune system is the first line of defense against viruses by inducing expression of cytokines and chemokines. Many pandemic influenza H1N1 virus [P(H1N1)] infected severe cases occur in young adults under 18 years old who were rarely seriously affected by seasonal influenza. Results regarding host cytokine profiles of P(H1N1) are ambivalent. In the present study we investigated host cytokine profiles in P(H1N1) patients and identified cytokines related to disease severity. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We retrieved 77, 59, 26 and 26 sera samples from P(H1N1) and non-flu influenza like illness (non-ILIs) cases with mild symptoms (mild patients), P(H1N1) vaccinees and healthy individuals, respectively. Nine and 16 sera were from hospitalized P(H1N1) and non-ILIs patients with severe symptoms (severe patients). Cytokines of IL-1, IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12, IFN-γ and TNF-α were assayed by cytokine bead array, IL-17 and IL-23 measured with ELISA. Mild P(H1N1) patients produced significantly elevated IL-2, IL-12, IFN-γ, IL-6, TNF-α, IL-5, IL-10, IL-17 and IL-23 versus to healthy controls. While an overwhelming IL-6 and IL-10 production were observed in severe P(H1N1) patients. Higher IL-10 secretion in P(H1N1) vaccinees confirmed our observation that highly increased level of sera IL-6 and IL-10 in P(H1N1) patients may lead to disease progression. CONCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANCE: A comprehensive innate immune response was activated at the early stage of P(H1N1) infection with a combine Th1/Th2/Th3 cytokines production. As disease progression, a systemic production of IL-6 and IL-10 were observed in severe P(H1N1) patients. Further analysis found a strong correlation between IL-6 and IL-10 production in the severe P(H1N1) patients. IL-6 may be served as a mediator to induce IL-10 production. Highly elevated level of sera IL-6 and IL-10 in P(H1N1) patients may lead to disease progression, but the underlying mechanism awaits further detailed investigations

Molecular epidemiology of measles viruses in China, 1995–2003

This report describes the genetic characterization of 297 wild-type measles viruses that were isolated in 24 provinces of China between 1995 and 2003. Phylogenetic analysis of the N gene sequences showed that all of the isolates belonged to genotype H1 except 3 isolates, which were genotype A. The nucleotide sequence and predicted amino acid homologies of the 294-genotype H1 strains were 94.7%–100% and 93.3%–100%, respectively. The genotype H1 isolates were divided into 2 clusters, which differed by approximately 2.9% at the nucleotide level. Viruses from both clusters were distributed throughout China with no apparent geographic restriction and multiple co-circulating lineages were present in many provinces. Even though other measles genotypes have been detected in countries that border China, this report shows that genotype H1 is widely distributed throughout the country and that China has a single, endemic genotype. This important baseline data will help to monitor the progress of measles control in China

Prediction of RNA Polymerase II recruitment, elongation and stalling from histone modification data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Initiation and elongation of RNA polymerase II (RNAPII) transcription is regulated by both DNA sequence and chromatin signals. Recent breakthroughs make it possible to measure the chromatin state and activity of core promoters genome-wide, but dedicated computational strategies are needed to progress from descriptive annotation of data to quantitative, predictive models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Here, we describe a computational framework which with high accuracy can predict the locations of core promoters, the amount of recruited RNAPII at the promoter, the amount of elongating RNAPII in the gene body, the mRNA production originating from the promoter and finally also the stalling characteristics of RNAPII by considering both quantitative and spatial features of histone modifications around the transcription start site (TSS).</p> <p>As the model framework can also pinpoint the signals that are the most influential for prediction, it can be used to infer underlying regulatory biology. For example, we show that the H3K4 di- and tri- methylation signals are strongly predictive for promoter location while the acetylation marks H3K9 and H3K27 are highly important in estimating the promoter usage. All of these four marks are found to be necessary for recruitment of RNAPII but not sufficient for the elongation. We also show that the spatial distributions of histone marks are almost as predictive as the signal strength and that a set of histone marks immediately downstream of the TSS is highly predictive of RNAPII stalling.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this study we introduce a general framework to accurately predict the level of RNAPII recruitment, elongation, stalling and mRNA expression from chromatin signals. The versatility of the method also makes it ideally suited to investigate other genomic data.</p

Echinococcus multilocularis and Echinococcus shiquicus in a small mammal community on the eastern Tibetan Plateau : host species composition, molecular prevalence, and epidemiological implications

Background The eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau is now recognized as an endemic region with the highest reported human infection rates in the world of human alveolar echinococcosis (AE) caused by Echinococcus multilocularis. Existing epidemiological studies on AE have mainly focused on the synanthropic environment, while basic parasitological and ecological aspects in wildlife host species remain largely unknown, especially for small mammal hosts. Therefore, we examined small mammal host species composition, occurrence, and the prevalence of both E. multilocularis and E. shiquicus in Shiqu County (Sichuan Province, China), eastern Tibetan Plateau. Results In total, 346 small mammals from five rodent and one pika species were trapped from four randomly set 0.25 ha square plots. Two vole species, Lasiopodomys fuscus (n = 144) and Microtus limnophilus (n = 44), and the plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae) (n = 135), were the three most-dominant species trapped. Although protoscoleces of E. multilocularis and E. shiquicus were only observed in L. fuscus and O. curzoniae, respectively, cox1 and nad1 gene DNA of E. shiquicus was detected in all the small mammal species except for Neodon irene, whereas E. multilocularis was detected in the three most-dominant species. The overall molecular prevalence of Echinococcus species was 5.8 (95% CI: 3.3–8.2%) ~ 10.7% (95% CI: 7.4–14.0%) (the conservative prevalence to the maximum prevalence with 95% CI in parentheses), whereas for E. multilocularis it was 4.3 (95% CI: 2.2–6.5%) ~ 6.7% (95% CI: 4.0–9.3%), and 1.5 (95% CI: 0.2–2.7%) ~ 4.1% (95% CI: 2.0–6.1%) for E. shiquicus. The prevalence of both E. multilocularis and E. shiquicus, was significantly higher in rodents (mainly voles) than in pikas. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that Echinococcus haplotypes of cox1 from small mammal hosts were actively involved in the sylvatic and anthropogenic transmission cycles of E. multilocularis in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Conclusions In contrast to previous studies, the current results indicated that rodent species, rather than pikas, are probably more important natural intermediate hosts of E. multilocularis and E. shiquicus in the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Thus, understanding interspecific dynamics between rodents and pikas is essential to studies of the echinococcosis transmission mechanism and human echinococcosis prevention in local communities. Keywords: Echinococcus multilocularis, E. shiquicus, Small mammal Prevalence, Tibetan Platea

AI is a viable alternative to high throughput screening: a 318-target study

: High throughput screening (HTS) is routinely used to identify bioactive small molecules. This requires physical compounds, which limits coverage of accessible chemical space. Computational approaches combined with vast on-demand chemical libraries can access far greater chemical space, provided that the predictive accuracy is sufficient to identify useful molecules. Through the largest and most diverse virtual HTS campaign reported to date, comprising 318 individual projects, we demonstrate that our AtomNet® convolutional neural network successfully finds novel hits across every major therapeutic area and protein class. We address historical limitations of computational screening by demonstrating success for target proteins without known binders, high-quality X-ray crystal structures, or manual cherry-picking of compounds. We show that the molecules selected by the AtomNet® model are novel drug-like scaffolds rather than minor modifications to known bioactive compounds. Our empirical results suggest that computational methods can substantially replace HTS as the first step of small-molecule drug discovery

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens