Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Wild Asian Elephants, Southern India

We tested wild Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) in southern India and confirmed infection in 3 animals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, an obligate human pathogen, by PCR and genetic sequencing. Our results indicate that tuberculosis may be spilling over from humans (reverse zoonosis) and emerging in wild elephants

PEGylated silicon nanoparticles: synthesis and characterization

Silicon nanoparticles were prepared and functionalized with alkene-terminated poly(ethylene oxide) to impart amphiphilic solution properties to the particles

COVID-19 infected ST-Elevation myocardial infarction in India (COSTA INDIA)

Objective: To find out differences in the presentation, management and outcomes of COVID-19 infected STEMI patients compared to age and sex-matched non-infected STEMI patients treated during the same period. Methods: This was a retrospective multicentre observational registry in which we collected data of COVID-19 positive STEMI patients from selected tertiary care hospitals across India. For every COVID-19 positive STEMI patient, two age and sex-matched COVID-19 negative STEMI patients were enrolled as control. The primary endpoint was a composite of in-hospital mortality, re-infarction, heart failure, and stroke. Results: 410 COVID-19 positive STEMI cases were compared with 799 COVID-19 negative STEMI cases. The composite of death/reinfarction/stroke/heart failure was significantly higher among the COVID-19 positive STEMI patients compared with COVID-19 negative STEMI cases (27.1% vs 20.7% p value = 0.01); though mortality rate did not differ significantly (8.0% vs 5.8% p value = 0.13). Significantly lower proportion of COVID-19 positive STEMI patients received reperfusion treatment and primary PCI (60.7% vs 71.1% p value=< 0.001 and 15.4% vs 23.4% p value = 0.001 respectively). Rate of systematic early PCI (pharmaco-invasive treatment) was significantly lower in the COVID-19 positive group compared with COVID-19 negative group. There was no difference in the prevalence of high thrombus burden (14.5% and 12.0% p value = 0.55 among COVID-19 positive and negative patients respectively) Conclusions: In this large registry of STEMI patients, we did not find significant excess in in-hospital mortality among COVID-19 co-infected patients compared with non-infected patients despite lower rate of primary PCI and reperfusion treatment, though composite of in-hospital mortality, re-infarction, stroke and heart failure was higher

Impact of COVID-19 on heart failure hospitalization and outcome in India – A cardiological society of India study (CSI–HF in COVID 19 times study – “The COVID C–HF study”)

Objectives: The presentation and outcomes of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) during COVID times (June 2020 to Dec 2020) were compared with the historical control during the same period in 2019. Methods: Data of 4806 consecutive patients of acute HF admitted in 22 centres in the country were collected during this period. The admission patterns, aetiology, outcomes, prescription of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) and interventions were analysed in this retrospective study. Results: Admissions for acute heart failure during the pandemic period in 2020 decreased by 20% compared to the corresponding six-month period in 2019, with numbers dropping from 2675 to 2131. However, no difference in the epidemiology was seen. The mean age of presentation in 2019 was 61.75 (±13.7) years, and 59.97 (±14.6) years in 2020. There was a significant decrease in the mean age of presentation (p = 0.001). Also. the proportion of male patients decreased significantly from 68.67% to 65.84% (p = 0.037). The in-hospital mortality for acute heart failure did not differ significantly between 2019 and 2020 (4.19% and 4.,97%) respectively (p = 0.19). The proportion of patients with HFrEF did not change in 2020 compared to 2019 (76.82% vs 75.74%, respectively). The average duration of hospital stay was 6.5 days. Conclusion: The outcomes of ADHF patients admitted during the Covid pandemic did not differ significantly. The length of hospital stay remained the same. The study highlighted the sub-optimal use of GDMT, though slightly improving over the last few years