A numerical investigation of extended range predictability.

Thesis. 1977. M.S.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Meteorology.Microfiche copy available in Archives and ScienceBibliography: leaves 47-48.M.S

Instructional Uses of Instant Messaging (IM) During Classroom Lectures

Can “Information Age” learners effectively multi-task in the classroom? Can synchronous classroom activities be designed around conceptually related tasks, to encourage deeper processing and greater learning of classroom content? This research was undertaken to begin to address these questions. In this study, we explored the use of instructionally-related instant messaging (IM) discussions during undergraduate university lectures. Over the course of three weeks, students practiced with and then employed hand-held computers for brief, synchronous class discussions in response to assigned questions related to the lectures. Students were observed during these sessions, and students and the instructors were interviewed separately afterwards. The contents of students’ discussions indicate that they were capable of engaging in on-task discussions and of expressing opinions and exploring instructionally relevant topics. However, even though students routinely multi-task in classrooms as they attend to lectures, process the contents, and record notes for later study, both students and the instructors expressed some discomfort with discussion occurring synchronously with classroom lectures. In this paper, we describe student discussion behavior, and reflect on possible applications of multiple sequential (rather than simultaneous) tasks during classroom instruction

Maternal Immune Activation in Nonhuman Primates Alters Social Attention in Juvenile Offspring

BACKGROUND: Sickness during pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of offspring neurodevelopmental disorders. Rodent models have played a critical role in establishing causal relationships and identifying mechanisms of altered brain and behavior development in pups prenatally exposed to maternal immune activation (MIA). We recently developed a novel nonhuman primate model to bridge the gap between human epidemiological studies and rodent models of prenatal immune challenge. Our initial results demonstrated that rhesus monkeys given the viral mimic synthetic double-stranded RNA (polyinosinic:polycytidylic acid stabilized with poly-l-lysine) during pregnancy produce offspring with abnormal repetitive behaviors, altered communication, and atypical social interactions. METHODS: We utilized noninvasive infrared eye tracking to further evaluate social processing capabilities in a subset of the first trimester MIA-exposed offspring (n = 4) and control animals (n = 4) from our previous study. RESULTS: As juveniles, the MIA offspring differed from control animals on several measures of social attention, particularly when viewing macaque faces depicting the fear grimace facial expression. Compared with control animals, MIA offspring had a longer latency before fixating on the eyes, had fewer fixations directed at the eyes, and spent less total time fixating on the eyes of the fear grimace images. CONCLUSIONS: In the rhesus monkey model, exposure to MIA at the end of the first trimester results in abnormal gaze patterns to salient social information. The use of noninvasive eye tracking extends the findings from rodent MIA models to more human-like behaviors resembling those in both autism spectrum disorder and schizophrenia

HNF1B variants associate with promoter methylation and regulate gene networks activated in prostate and ovarian cancer

Two independent regions within HNF1B are consistently identified in prostate and ovarian cancer genome-wide association studies (GWAS); their functional roles are unclear. We link prostate cancer (PC) risk SNPs rs11649743 and rs3760511 with elevated HNF1B gene expression and allele-specific epigenetic silencing, and outline a mechanism by which common risk variants could effect functional changes that increase disease risk: functional assays suggest that HNF1B is a pro-differentiation factor that suppresses epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) in unmethylated, healthy tissues. This tumor-suppressor activity is lost when HNF1B is silenced by promoter methylation in the progression to PC. Epigenetic inactivation of HNF1B in ovarian cancer also associates with known risk SNPs, with a similar impact on EMT. This represents one of the first comprehensive studies into the pleiotropic role of a GWAS-associated transcription factor across distinct cancer types, and is the first to describe a conserved role for a multi-cancer genetic risk factor

The value of predicting restriction of fetal growth and compromise of its wellbeing: Systematic quantitative overviews (meta-analysis) of test accuracy literature

BACKGROUND: Restriction of fetal growth and compromise of fetal wellbeing remain significant causes of perinatal death and childhood disability. At present, there is a lack of scientific consensus about the best strategies for predicting these conditions before birth. Therefore, there is uncertainty about the best management of pregnant women who might have a growth restricted baby. This is likely to be due to a dearth of clear collated information from individual research studies drawn from different sources on this subject. METHODS/DESIGN: A series of systematic reviews and meta-analyses will be undertaken to determine, among pregnant women, the accuracy of various tests to predict and/or diagnose fetal growth restriction and compromise of fetal wellbeing. We will search Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, MEDION, citation lists of review articles and eligible primary articles and will contact experts in the field. Independent reviewers will select studies, extract data and assess study quality according to established criteria. Language restrictions will not be applied. Data synthesis will involve meta-analysis (where appropriate), exploration of heterogeneity and publication bias. DISCUSSION: The project will collate and synthesise the available evidence regarding the value of the tests for predicting restriction of fetal growth and compromise of fetal wellbeing. The systematic overviews will assess the quality of the available evidence, estimate the magnitude of potential benefits, identify those tests with good predictive value and help formulate practice recommendations

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

The impact of individual Cognitive Stimulation Therapy (iCST) on cognition, quality of life, caregiver health, and family relationships in dementia: a randomized controlled trial

Background: Cognitive Stimulation Therapy (CST) is a well-established group psychosocial intervention for people with dementia. There is evidence that homebased programmes of cognitive stimulation delivered by family caregivers may benefit both the person and the caregiver. However, no previous studies have evaluated caregiver-delivered CST. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a home-based, caregiver-led individual Cognitive Stimulation Therapy (iCST) program in (i) improving cognition and quality of life (QoL) for the person with dementia and (ii) mental and physical health (wellbeing) for the caregiver. Methods and Findings: A single-blind, pragmatic randomized trial (RCT) at eight study sites across the UK. The intervention and blinded assessment of outcomes were conducted in participants’ homes. 356 people with mild to moderate dementia and their caregivers recruited from memory services, and community mental health teams. Participants were randomly assigned to iCST (75, 30 minute sessions) or treatment as usual (TAU) control over 25 weeks. iCST sessions consisted of themed activities designed to be mentally stimulating and enjoyable. Caregivers delivering iCST received training and support from an unblind researcher. Primary outcomes were cognition (Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale cognitive [ADAS-Cog]) and self-reported quality of life (QoL) (Quality of Life Alzheimer’s Disease [QoL-AD]) for the person with dementia, and general health status (Short Form-12 [SF-12]) for the caregiver. Secondary outcomes included: quality of the caregiving relationship from the perspectives of the person and of the caregiver (Quality of the Carer Patient Relationships Scale), and health-related QoL (EQ5D) for the caregiver. Intention to treat (ITT) analyses were conducted. At the post-test (26 weeks), there were no differences between the iCST and TAU groups in the outcomes of cognition (MD = -0·55, 95% CI -2·00 to 0·90; p=0·45), and self-reported quality of life (QoL) (MD = -0·02, 95% CI -1·22 to 0·82; p= 0·97) for people with dementia, or caregivers’ general health status (MD=0·13, 95% CI -1·65 to 1·91; p=0·89). However, people with dementia receiving iCST rated the relationship with their caregiver more positively (MD = 1·77, 95% CI 0·26 to 3·28; p=0·02) and iCST improved QoL for caregivers (EQ-5D, MD = 0·06, 95% CI 0·02 to 0·10; p=0·01). Forty percent (72/180) of dyads allocated to iCST completed at least two sessions per week, with 22% (39/180) completing no sessions at all. Study limitations include low adherence to the intervention. Conclusions: There was no evidence that iCST has an effect on cognition or QoL for people with dementia. However, participating in iCST appeared to enhance the quality of the caregiving relationship and caregivers’ QoL

Biopsychosocial predictors of perceived life expectancy in a national sample of older men and women.

Perceived life expectancy (PLE) is predictive of mortality risk in older adults, but the factors that may contribute to mental conceptions of PLE are unknown. We aimed to describe the sociodemographic, biomedical, behavioral, and psychological predictors of self-reported PLE estimates among older English adults. Data were from 6662 adults aged 50-79 years in the population-based English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (cross-sectional sample from 2012/13). PLE was assessed in the face-to-face study interview ("What are the chances you will live to be age x or more?" where x = current age plus 10-15 years). Responses were categorized as 'low' (0-49%), 'medium' (50-74%), and 'high' (75-100%). Adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for low vs. high PLE were estimated using population-weighted modified Poisson regression with robust error variance. Overall, 1208/6662 (18%) participants reported a low PLE, 2806/6662 (42%) reported a medium PLE, and 2648/6662 (40%) reported a high PLE. The predictors of reporting a low PLE included older age (PR = 1.64; 95% CI: 1.50-1.76 per 10 years), male sex (PR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.02-1.26), being a smoker (PR = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.22-1.59 vs. never/former smoker), and having a diagnosis of cancer or diabetes. A low sense of control over life was associated with low PLE, as was low satisfaction with life and worse self-rated health. Those with a higher perceived social standing were less likely to report a low PLE (PR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93 per 10-point increase, out of 100). This study provides novel insight into potential influences on older adults' expectations of their longevity, including aspects of psychological well-being. These results should be corroborated to better determine their implications for health-related decision-making, planning, and behavior among older adults