Simulating the 128-ka Antarctic climate response to Northern Hemisphere ice sheet melting using the isotope-enabled HadCM3

Warmer than present Antarctic and Southern Ocean temperatures during the last interglacial, approximately 128,000 years ago, have been attributed to changes in north‐south ocean heat transport, causing opposing hemispheric temperature anomalies. We investigate the magnitude of Antarctic warming and Antarctic ice core isotopic enrichment in response to Northern Hemisphere meltwater input during the early last interglacial. A 1,600‐year HadCM3 simulation driven by 0.25 Sv of meltwater input reproduces 50–60% of the peak Southern Ocean summer sea surface temperature anomaly, sea ice retreat, and ice core isotope enrichment. We also find a robust increase in the proportion of cold season precipitation during the last interglacial, leading to lower isotopic values at the Antarctic ice core sites. These results suggest that a HadCM3 simulation including 0.25 Sv for 3,000–4,000 years would reconcile the last interglacial observations, providing a potential solution for the last interglacial missing heat problem

Southern Ocean deep convection as a driver of Antarctic warming events

Simulations with a free-running coupled climate model show that heat release associated with Southern Ocean deep convection variability can drive centennial-scale Antarctic temperature variations of up to 2.0 °C. The mechanism involves three steps: Preconditioning: heat accumulates at depth in the Southern Ocean; Convection onset: wind and/or sea-ice changes tip the buoyantly unstable system into the convective state; Antarctic warming: fast sea-ice–albedo feedbacks (on annual–decadal timescales) and slow Southern Ocean frontal and sea-surface temperature adjustments to convective heat release (on multidecadal–century timescales) drive an increase in atmospheric heat and moisture transport toward Antarctica. We discuss the potential of this mechanism to help drive and amplify climate variability as observed in Antarctic ice-core records

Sea surface and subsurface circulation dynamics off equatorial Peru during the last ~17 kyr

The complex deglacial to Holocene oceanographic development in the Gulf of Guayaquil (Eastern Equatorial Pacific) is reconstructed for sea surface and subsurface ocean levels from (isotope) geochemical proxies based on marine sediment cores. At sea surface, southern sourced Cold Coastal Water and tropical Equatorial Surface Water/Tropical Surface Water are intimately related. In particular since ~10 ka, independent sea surface temperature proxies capturing different seasons emphasize the growing seasonal contrast in the Gulf of Guayaquil, which is in contrast to ocean areas further offshore. Cold Coastal Water became rapidly present in the Gulf of Guayaquil during the austral winter season in line with the strengthening of the Southeast Trades, while coastal upwelling off Peru gradually intensified and expanded northward in response to a seasonally changing atmospheric circulation pattern affecting the core locations intensively since 4 ka BP. Equatorial Surface Water, instead, was displaced and Tropical Surface Water moved northward together with the Equatorial Front. At subsurface, the presence of Equatorial Under Current-sourced Equatorial Subsurface Water was continuously growing, prominently since ~10–8 ka B.P. During Heinrich Stadial 1 and large parts of the Bølling/Allerød, and similarly during short Holocene time intervals at ~5.1–4 ka B.P. and ~1.5–0.5 ka B.P., the admixture of Equatorial Subsurface Water was reduced in response to both short-term weakening of Equatorial Under Current strength from the northwest and emplacement by tropical Equatorial Surface Water, considerably warming the uppermost ocean layers

Holocene glacial activity in Barilari Bay, west Antarctic Peninsula, tracked by magnetic mineral assemblages: Linking ice, ocean, and atmosphere

We investigate the origin and fate of lithogenic sediments using magnetic mineral assemblages in Barilari Bay, west Antarctic Peninsula (AP) from sediment cores recovered during the Larsen Ice Shelf System, Antarctica (LARISSA) NBP10-01 cruise. To quantify and reconstruct Holocene changes in covarying magnetic mineral assemblages, we adopt an unsupervised mathematical unmixing strategy and apply it to measurements of magnetic susceptibility as a function of increasing temperature. Comparisons of the unmixed end-members with magnetic observations of northwestern AP bedrock and the spatial distribution of magnetic mineral assemblages within the fjord, allow us to identify source regions, including signatures for ‘‘inner bay,’’ ‘‘outer bay,’’ and ‘‘northwestern AP’’ sources. We find strong evidence that supports the establishment of a late Holocene ice shelf in the fjord coeval with the Little Ice Age. Additionally, we present new evidence for late Holocene sensitivity to conditions akin to positive mean Southern Annual Mode states for western AP glaciers at their advanced Neoglacial positions

Abrupt Ice Age Shifts in Southern Westerlies and Antarctic Climate Forced from the North

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitude westerly winds play a central role in the global climate system via Southern Ocean upwelling, carbon exchange with the deep ocean, Agulhas Leakage, and Antarctic ice sheet stability. Meridional shifts in the SH westerlies have been hypothesized in response to abrupt North Atlantic Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) climatic events of the last ice age, in parallel with the well-documented shifts of the intertropical convergence zone. Shifting moisture pathways to West Antarctica are consistent with this view, but may represent a Pacific teleconnection pattern. The full SH atmospheric-circulation response to the DO cycle, as well as its impact on Antarctic temperature, have so far remained unclear. Here we use five volcanically-synchronized ice cores to show that the Antarctic temperature response to the DO cycle can be understood as the superposition of two modes: a spatially homogeneous oceanic “bipolar seesaw” mode that lags Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate by about 200 years, and a spatially heterogeneous atmospheric mode that is synchronous with NH abrupt events. Temperature anomalies of the atmospheric mode are similar to those associated with present-day Southern Annular Mode (SAM) variability, rather than the Pacific South America (PSA) pattern. Moreover, deuterium excess records suggest a zonally coherent migration of the SH westerlies over all ocean basins in phase with NH climate. Our work provides a simple conceptual framework for understanding the circum-Antarctic temperature response to abrupt NH climate change. We provide observational evidence for abrupt shifts in the SH westerlies, with ramifications for global ocean circulation and atmospheric CO₂. These coupled changes highlight the necessity of a global, rather than a purely North Atlantic, perspective on the DO cycle

Формування та розвиток загальної теорії стійкості (середина XVIII ст. — 30-і рр. ХХ ст.)

У статті розглянуто історію вивчення стійкості (середина XVIII — початок XX ст., світовий контекст). Досліджено внесок А. Пуанкаре та О.М. Ляпунова в розвиток загальної теорії стійкості. Показано розвиток їх ідей у працях російських та українських учених.В статье рассмотрена история изучения устойчивости (середина XVIII — начало XX в., мировой контекст). Исследован вклад французского ученого А. Пуанкаре и русского ученого А.М. Ляпунова в развитие общей теории устойчивости. Показано дальнейшее развитие их идей в трудах русских и украинских ученых.The history of basic research in stability is given. Contributions from H.Poincaré, a French mathematician, mechanic and physicist, and O. Lapunov, a soviet mathematician and mechanic (working in the Kharkiv university) to development of the general theory of stability are shown. In 1892—1902, O. Lyapunov constructed an original robust mathematical apparatus to study stability of motion. Development of ideas and methods of H.Poincar of H.Poincar³e and O. Lapunov in works of later Ukrainian and Russian scientists is shown

Onset of deglacial warming in West Antarctica driven by local orbital forcing.

The cause of warming in the Southern Hemisphere during the most recent deglaciation remains a matter of debate. Hypotheses for a Northern Hemisphere trigger, through oceanic redistributions of heat, are based in part on the abrupt onset of warming seen in East Antarctic ice cores and dated to 18,000 years ago, which is several thousand years after high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation intensity began increasing from its minimum, approximately 24,000 years ago. An alternative explanation is that local solar insolation changes cause the Southern Hemisphere to warm independently. Here we present results from a new, annually resolved ice-core record from West Antarctica that reconciles these two views. The records show that 18,000 years ago snow accumulation in West Antarctica began increasing, coincident with increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, warming in East Antarctica and cooling in the Northern Hemisphere associated with an abrupt decrease in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, significant warming in West Antarctica began at least 2,000 years earlier. Circum-Antarctic sea-ice decline, driven by increasing local insolation, is the likely cause of this warming. The marine-influenced West Antarctic records suggest a more active role for the Southern Ocean in the onset of deglaciation than is inferred from ice cores in the East Antarctic interior, which are largely isolated from sea-ice changes

Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age.

The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard-Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard-Oeschger dynamics

Onset of deglacial warming in West Antarctica driven by local orbital forcing.

The cause of warming in the Southern Hemisphere during the most recent deglaciation remains a matter of debate. Hypotheses for a Northern Hemisphere trigger, through oceanic redistributions of heat, are based in part on the abrupt onset of warming seen in East Antarctic ice cores and dated to 18,000 years ago, which is several thousand years after high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation intensity began increasing from its minimum, approximately 24,000 years ago. An alternative explanation is that local solar insolation changes cause the Southern Hemisphere to warm independently. Here we present results from a new, annually resolved ice-core record from West Antarctica that reconciles these two views. The records show that 18,000 years ago snow accumulation in West Antarctica began increasing, coincident with increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, warming in East Antarctica and cooling in the Northern Hemisphere associated with an abrupt decrease in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, significant warming in West Antarctica began at least 2,000 years earlier. Circum-Antarctic sea-ice decline, driven by increasing local insolation, is the likely cause of this warming. The marine-influenced West Antarctic records suggest a more active role for the Southern Ocean in the onset of deglaciation than is inferred from ice cores in the East Antarctic interior, which are largely isolated from sea-ice changes