Dispersal within a spatially structured population of lesser kestrels: The role of spatial isolation and conspecific attraction

1. Factors governing dispersal rates have seldom been examined in spatially structured populations of vertebrates. We gathered information during 8 years on transfer rates between subpopulations in a spatially structured, growing population of colonial lesser kestrels Falco naumanni, and analysed the contribution of several variables related to spatial isolation and characteristics of both subpopulation of origin and destination on probabilities of dispersal. 2. Lesser kestrels were highly philopatric to their subpopulations, but first-breeders dispersed more often than adults (26% vs. 4%, n = 1706) because adults were reluctant to move from familiar areas. Frequency of subpopulation change was higher in females than in males (first-recruiters: 30% vs. 22%, n = 987; adults 5% vs. 1%, n = 719), according to their different breeding roles. However, all populational factors had an equal effect on individuals of different sex and dispersal status. 3. Movement rates decreased with inter-subpopulation distance - indicating that travelling to distant subpopulations may impose costs in terms of breeding prospects -and with the number of subpopulations, which increased during our study period. 4. Conspecific attraction strongly influenced the probability of dispersal: it was relatively higher in largely populated subpopulations, and individuals of large subpopulations were reluctant to change to others. These results were neither influenced by the size and breeding density of the subpopulations nor by habitat quality in terms of food availability or risk of predation, as indicated by breeding success of kestrels at each subpopulation. The number of conspecifics could be used by the kestrels as a cue of patch quality in terms of settlement options, and large subpopulations could be more easily detected by prospecting birds. 5. Our study highlights the fact that several assumptions of theoretical metapopulation modelling are often not fulfilled in nature. Both theoretical models and management strategies on spatially structured populations or metapopulations should thus consider the number, population size, and spatial distribution of local populations, as well as their relationships with the dispersal ability of the species.Peer Reviewe

Prognostic Factors for Mortality in Acute Mesenteric Ischemia.

Postoperative mortality in patients undergoing surgical and/or interventional treatment for acute mesenteric ischemia (AMI) has remained an unsolved problem in recent decades. Here, we investigated clinical predictors of postoperative mortality in a large European cohort of patients undergoing treatment for AMI. In total, 179 patients who underwent surgical and/or interventional treatment for AMI between 2009 and 2021 at our institution were included in this analysis. Associations between postoperative mortality and various clinical variables were assessed using univariate and multivariable binary logistic regression analysis. Most of the patients were diagnosed with arterial ischemia (AI; n = 104), while venous ischemia (VI; n = 21) and non-occlusive mesenteric ischemia (NOMI; n = 54) were present in a subset of patients. Overall inhouse mortality was 55.9% (100/179). Multivariable analyses identified leukocytes (HR = 1.08; p = 0.008), lactate (HR = 1.25; p = 0.01), bilirubin (HR = 2.05; p = 0.045), creatinine (HR = 1.48; p = 0.039), etiology (AI, VI or NOMI; p = 0.038) and portomesenteric vein gas (PMVG; HR = 23.02; p = 0.012) as independent predictors of postoperative mortality. In a subanalysis excluding patients with fatal prognosis at the first surgical exploration (n = 24), leukocytes (HR = 1.09; p = 0.004), lactate (HR = 1.27; p = 0.003), etiology (AI, VI or NOMI; p = 0.006), PMVG (HR = 17.02; p = 0.018) and intraoperative FFP transfusion (HR = 4.4; p = 0.025) were determined as independent predictors of postoperative mortality. Further, the risk of fatal outcome changed disproportionally with increased preoperative lactate values. The clinical outcome of patients with AMI was determined using a combination of pre- and intraoperative clinical and radiological characteristics. Serum lactate appears to be of major clinical importance as the risk of fatal outcome increases significantly with higher lactate values

Clinical features and prediction of long-term survival after surgery for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

Introduction:The treatment of perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) poses specific challenges not only due to its high perioperative complication rates but also due its dismal long-term prognosis with only a few long-term survivors (LTS) among the patients. Therefore, in this analysis characteristics and predictors of LTS in pCCA patients are investigated. Material and methods:In this single center analysis, patients undergoing curative-intent liver resection for pCCA between 2010 and 2022 were categorized into long-term and short-term survivors (STS) excluding perioperative mortality. Binary logistic regression was used to determine key differences between the groups and to develop a prognostic composite variable. This composite variable was subsequently tested in the whole cohort of surgically treated pCCA patients using Cox Regression analysis for cancer-specific survival (CSS). Results:Within a cohort of 209 individuals, 27 patients were identified as LTS (median CSS = 125 months) and 55 patients as STS (median CSS = 16 months). Multivariable analysis identified preoperative portal vein infiltration (OR = 5.85, p = 0.018) and intraoperative packed red blood cell (PRBC) transfusions (OR = 10.29, p = 0.002) as key differences between the groups. A prognostic composite variable based on these two features was created and transferred into a Cox regression model of the whole cohort. Here, the composite variable (HR = 0.35, p&lt;0.001), lymph node metastases (HR = 2.15, p = 0.001) and postoperative complications (HR = 3.06, p&lt;0.001) were identified as independent predictors of CSS. Conclusion: Long-term survival after surgery for pCCA is possible and is strongly negatively associated with preoperative portal vein infiltration and intraoperative PRBC transfusion. As these variables are part of preoperative staging or can be modulated by intraoperative technique, the proposed prognostic composite variable can easily be transferred into clinical management to predict the oncological outcome of patients undergoing surgery for pCCA.</p

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe

Severe early onset preeclampsia: short and long term clinical, psychosocial and biochemical aspects

Preeclampsia is a pregnancy specific disorder commonly defined as de novo hypertension and proteinuria after 20 weeks gestational age. It occurs in approximately 3-5% of pregnancies and it is still a major cause of both foetal and maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide1. As extensive research has not yet elucidated the aetiology of preeclampsia, there are no rational preventive or therapeutic interventions available. The only rational treatment is delivery, which benefits the mother but is not in the interest of the foetus, if remote from term. Early onset preeclampsia (<32 weeks’ gestational age) occurs in less than 1% of pregnancies. It is, however often associated with maternal morbidity as the risk of progression to severe maternal disease is inversely related with gestational age at onset2. Resulting prematurity is therefore the main cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity in patients with severe preeclampsia3. Although the discussion is ongoing, perinatal survival is suggested to be increased in patients with preterm preeclampsia by expectant, non-interventional management. This temporising treatment option to lengthen pregnancy includes the use of antihypertensive medication to control hypertension, magnesium sulphate to prevent eclampsia and corticosteroids to enhance foetal lung maturity4. With optimal maternal haemodynamic status and reassuring foetal condition this results on average in an extension of 2 weeks. Prolongation of these pregnancies is a great challenge for clinicians to balance between potential maternal risks on one the eve hand and possible foetal benefits on the other. Clinical controversies regarding prolongation of preterm preeclamptic pregnancies still exist – also taking into account that preeclampsia is the leading cause of maternal mortality in the Netherlands5 - a debate which is even more pronounced in very preterm pregnancies with questionable foetal viability6-9. Do maternal risks of prolongation of these very early pregnancies outweigh the chances of neonatal survival? Counselling of women with very early onset preeclampsia not only comprises of knowledge of the outcome of those particular pregnancies, but also knowledge of outcomes of future pregnancies of these women is of major clinical importance. This thesis opens with a review of the literature on identifiable risk factors of preeclampsia

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI