Decreased progesterone receptor isoform expression in luteal phase fallopian tube epithelium and high-grade serous carcinoma

We previously reported that BRCA1/2-mutated fallopian tube epithelium (FTE) collected during the luteal phase exhibits gene expression profiles more closely resembling that of high-grade serous carcinoma (HGSC) specimens than FTE collected during the follicular phase or from control patients. Since the luteal phase is characterised by high levels of progesterone, we determined whether the expression of progesterone receptor (PR) and PR-responsive genes was altered in FTE obtained from BRCA mutation carriers during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle. RT-qPCR confirmed a decreased expression of PR mRNA in FTE during the luteal phase relative to follicular phase, in both BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and control patients. Immunohistochemistry using isoform-specific antibodies confirmed a low level of both PR-A and PR-B in HGSC and a lower level of staining in FTE samples obtained during the luteal phase compared with the follicular phase. No significant difference in PR-A or PR-B staining was found based on patient BRCA mutation status. Analysis of our previously reported gene expression profiles based upon known PR-A- and PR-B-specific target genes did not partition samples by BRCA mutation status, indicating that overall FTE PR response is not altered in BRCA mutation carriers. HGSC samples grouped separately from other samples, consistent with the observed loss of PR expression. These findings indicate no overall difference in PR signalling in FTE as a function of BRCA mutation status. Thus, the molecular similarity of BRCA1/2-mutated luteal phase FTE and HGSC likely results from an altered response to luteal phase factors other than progesterone

Analyses of germline variants associated with ovarian cancer survival identify functional candidates at the 1q22 and 19p12 outcome loci.

We previously identified associations with ovarian cancer outcome at five genetic loci. To identify putatively causal genetic variants and target genes, we prioritized two ovarian outcome loci (1q22 and 19p12) for further study. Bioinformatic and functional genetic analyses indicated that MEF2D and ZNF100 are targets of candidate outcome variants at 1q22 and 19p12, respectively. At 19p12, the chromatin interaction of a putative regulatory element with the ZNF100 promoter region correlated with candidate outcome variants. At 1q22, putative regulatory elements enhanced MEF2D promoter activity and haplotypes containing candidate outcome variants modulated these effects. In a public dataset, MEF2D and ZNF100 expression were both associated with ovarian cancer progression-free or overall survival time. In an extended set of 6,162 epithelial ovarian cancer patients, we found that functional candidates at the 1q22 and 19p12 loci, as well as other regional variants, were nominally associated with patient outcome; however, no associations reached our threshold for statistical significance (p<1×10-5). Larger patient numbers will be needed to convincingly identify any true associations at these loci.The OCAC Oncoarray genotyping project was funded through grants from the U.S. National Institutes of Health 2 (NIH) (CA1X01HG007491-01, U19-CA148112, R01-CA149429 and R01-CA058598); Canadian Institutes of Health 3 Research (MOP-86727) and the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund (OCRF). Funding for the iCOGS infrastructure came from: the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement n° 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175) (COGS), Cancer Research UK (C1287/A10118, C1287/A 10710, C12292/A11174, C1281/A12014, C5047/A8384, C5047/A15007, C5047/A10692, C8197/A16565), the National Institutes of Health (CA128978) and Post-Cancer GWAS initiative (1U19 CA148537, 1U19 CA148065 and 1U19 CA148112 - the GAME-ON initiative), the Department of Defence (W81XWH-10-1-0341), the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) for the CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer, Komen Foundation for the Cure, the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, and the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund. AUS studies (Australian Ovarian Cancer Study and the Australian Cancer Study) were funded by the U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command (DAMD17-01-1-0729), National Health & Medical Research Council of Australia (199600 and 400281), Cancer Councils of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania, Cancer Foundation of Western Australia (Multi-State Application Numbers 191, 211 and 182). The Bavarian study (BAV) was supported by ELAN Funds of the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg. The Belgian study (BEL) was funded by Nationaal Kankerplan. The BVU study was funded by Vanderbilt CTSA grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH)/National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS) (ULTR000445). The CNIO Ovarian Cancer Study (CNI) study was supported by Instituto de Salud Carlos III (PI 12/01319); Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (SAF2012). The Hawaii Ovarian Cancer Study (HAW) was supported the U.S. National Institutes of Health (R01-CA58598, N01-CN-55424 and N01-PC-67001). The Hannover-Jena Ovarian Cancer Study (HJO) study was funded by intramural funding through the Rudolf-Bartling Foundation. The Hormones and Ovarian Cancer Prediction study (HOP) was supported by US National Cancer Institute: K07-CA80668; R01CA095023; P50-CA159981; R01-CA126841; US Army Medical Research and Materiel Command: DAMD17-02-1-0669; NIH/National Center for Research Resources/General Clinical Research Center grant MO1- RR000056. The Women’s Cancer Program (LAX) was supported by the American Cancer Society Early Detection Professorship (120950-SIOP-06-258-06-COUN) and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), Grant UL1TR000124. The Mayo Clinic Case-Only Ovarian Cancer Study (MAC) and the Mayo Clinic Ovarian Cancer Case-Control Study (MAY) were funded by the National Institutes of Health (R01-CA122443, P30-CA15083, P50-CA136393); Mayo Foundation; Minnesota Ovarian Cancer Alliance; Fred C. and Katherine B. Andersen Foundation; Fraternal Order of Eagles. The MALOVA study (MAL) was funded by research grant R01- CA61107 from the National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, Md; research grant 94 222 52 from the Danish Cancer Society, Copenhagen, Denmark; and the Mermaid I project. The North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study (NCO) National Institutes of Health (R01-CA76016) and the Department of Defense (DAMD17-02-1-0666). The New England-based Case-Control Study of Ovarian Cancer (NEC) was supported by NIH grants R01 CA 054419-10 and P50 CA105009, and Department of Defense CDMRP grant W81XWH-10-1-0280. The University of Bergen, Haukeland University Hospital, Norway study (NOR) was funded by Helse Vest, The Norwegian Cancer Society, The Research Council of Norway. The Oregon study (ORE) was funded by the Sherie Hildreth Ovarian Cancer Research Fund and the OHSU Foundation. The Ovarian Cancer Prognosis and Lifestyle Study (OPL) was funded by National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia (APP1025142) and Brisbane Women’s Club. The Danish Pelvic Mass Study (PVD) was funded by Herlev Hospitals Forskningsråd, Direktør Jacob Madsens og Hustru Olga Madsens fond, Arvid Nilssons fond, Gangsted fonden, Herlev Hospitals Forskningsråd and Danish Cancer Society. The Royal Brisbane Hospital (RBH) study was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. The Scottish Randomised Trial in Ovarian Cancer study (SRO) was funded by Cancer Research UK (C536/A13086, C536/A6689) and Imperial Experimental Cancer Research Centre (C1312/A15589). The Princess Margaret Cancer Centre study (UHN) was funded by Princess Margaret Cancer Centre Foundation-Bridge for the Cure. The Gynaecological Oncology Biobank at Westmead (WMH) is a member of the Australasian Biospecimen Network-Oncology group, funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Enabling Grants ID 310670 & ID 628903 and the Cancer Institute NSW Grants ID 12/RIG/1-17 and 15/RIG/1-16. OVCARE Gynecologic Tissue Bank and Outcomes Unit (VAN) study was funded by BC Cancer Foundation, VGH & UBC Hospital Foundation. Stuart MacGregor acknowledges funding from an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship and an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council project grant (APP1051698). Anna deFazio was funded by the University of Sydney Cancer Research Fund and the Cancer Institute NSW through the Sydney West-Translational Cancer Research Centre. Dr. Beth Y. Karlan is supported by American Cancer Society Early Detection Professorship (SIOP-06-258-01-COUN) and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences (NCATS), Grant UL1TR000124. Irene Orlow was supported by NCI CCSG award (P30-CA008748). GCT, PW and TO’M were funded by NHMRC Fellowships

Clinical parameters affecting survival outcomes in patients with low-grade serous ovarian carcinoma: An international multicentre analysis

Background: Women with low-grade ovarian serous carcinoma (LGSC) benefit from surgical treatment; however, the role of chemotherapy is controversial. We examined an international database through the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium to identify factors that affect survival in LGSC. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of patients with LGSC who had had primary surgery and had overall survival data available. We performed univariate and multivariate analyses of progression-free survival and overall survival, and generated Kaplan–Meier survival curves. Results: Of the 707 patients with LGSC, 680 (96.2%) had available overall survival data. The patients’ median age overall was 54 years. Of the 659 patients with International Federation of Obstetrics and Gynecology stage data, 156 (23.7%) had stage I disease, 64 (9.7%) had stage II, 395 (59.9%) had stage III, and 44 (6.7%) had stage IV. Of the 377 patients with surgical data, 200 (53.0%) had no visible residual disease. Of the 361 patients with chemotherapy data, 330 (91.4%) received first-line platinum-based chemotherapy. The median follow-up duration was 5.0 years. The median progression-free survival and overall survival were 43.2 months and 110.4 months, respectively. Multivariate analysis indicated a statistically significant impact of stage and residual disease on progression-free survival and overall survival. Platinum-based chemotherapy was not associated with a survival advantage. Conclusion: This multicentre analysis indicates that complete surgical cytoreduction to no visible residual disease has the most impact on improved survival in LGSC. This finding could immediately inform and change practice.publishedVersio

CA-125 levels are predictive of survival in low-grade serous ovarian cancer—a multicenter analysis

Objective: Studies on low-grade serous ovarian cancer (LGSC) are limited by a low number of cases. The aim of this study was to define the prognostic significance of age, stage, and CA-125 levels on survival in a multi-institutional cohort of women with pathologically confirmed LGSC. Methods: Women with LGSC were identified from the collaborative Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC). Cases of newly diagnosed primary LGSC were included if peri-operative CA-125 levels were available. Age at diagnosis, FIGO stage, pre- and post-treatment CA-125 levels, residual disease, adjuvant chemotherapy, disease recurrence, and vital status were collected by the participating institutions. Progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were calculated. Multivariable (MVA) Cox proportional hazard models were used and hazard ratios (HR) calculated. Results: A total of 176 women with LGSC were included in this study; 82% had stage III/IV disease. The median PFS was 2.3 years and the median OS was 6.4 years. Age at diagnosis was not significantly associated with worse PFS (p = 0.23) or OS (p = 0.3) (HR per year: 0.99; 95%CI, 0.96−1.01 and 0.98; 95%CI 0.95−1.01). FIGO stage III/IV was independently associated with PFS (HR 4.26, 95%CI 1.43−12.73) and OS (HR 1.69, 95%CI 0.56−5.05). Elevated CA-125 (≥35 U/mL) at diagnosis was not significantly associated with worse PFS (p = 0.87) or OS (p = 0.78) in MVA. Elevated CA-125 (≥35 U/mL) after completion of primary treatment was independently associated with worse PFS (HR 2.81, 95%CI 1.36−5.81) and OS (HR 6.62, 95%CI 2.45−17.92). In the MVA, residual disease was independently associated with PFS (0.022), but not OS (0.85). Conclusion: Advanced LGSC was associated with poor long-term prognosis. FIGO stage and abnormal post-treatment CA-125 level are key prognostic factors inversely associated with PFS and OS. Highlights: 1. Through a multi-center collaborative effort, data from 176 women with low-grade serous ovarian cancer were analyzed. 2. Although low-grade serous ovarian cancer is often considered indolent, the progression-free and overall survival are poor. 3. Elevated post-treatment CA-125 levels are independently associated with poor survival

Identification of 12 new susceptibility loci for different histotypes of epithelial ovarian cancer.

To identify common alleles associated with different histotypes of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC), we pooled data from multiple genome-wide genotyping projects totaling 25,509 EOC cases and 40,941 controls. We identified nine new susceptibility loci for different EOC histotypes: six for serous EOC histotypes (3q28, 4q32.3, 8q21.11, 10q24.33, 18q11.2 and 22q12.1), two for mucinous EOC (3q22.3 and 9q31.1) and one for endometrioid EOC (5q12.3). We then performed meta-analysis on the results for high-grade serous ovarian cancer with the results from analysis of 31,448 BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, including 3,887 mutation carriers with EOC. This identified three additional susceptibility loci at 2q13, 8q24.1 and 12q24.31. Integrated analyses of genes and regulatory biofeatures at each locus predicted candidate susceptibility genes, including OBFC1, a new candidate susceptibility gene for low-grade and borderline serous EOC

The global, regional, and national burden of adult lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancer in 204 countries and territories:A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.Objective To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.Evidence Review The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.Findings In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.Conclusions and Relevance In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Funding: F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT), in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy i4HB; FCT/MCTES through the project UIDB/50006/2020. J Conde acknowledges the European Research Council Starting Grant (ERC-StG-2019-848325). V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006.proofepub_ahead_of_prin

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions