WARNING: Physics Envy May Be Hazardous To Your Wealth!

The quantitative aspirations of economists and financial analysts have for many years been based on the belief that it should be possible to build models of economic systems - and financial markets in particular - that are as predictive as those in physics. While this perspective has led to a number of important breakthroughs in economics, "physics envy" has also created a false sense of mathematical precision in some cases. We speculate on the origins of physics envy, and then describe an alternate perspective of economic behavior based on a new taxonomy of uncertainty. We illustrate the relevance of this taxonomy with two concrete examples: the classical harmonic oscillator with some new twists that make physics look more like economics, and a quantitative equity market-neutral strategy. We conclude by offering a new interpretation of tail events, proposing an "uncertainty checklist" with which our taxonomy can be implemented, and considering the role that quants played in the current financial crisis.Comment: v3 adds 2 reference

The state of the Martian climate

60°N was +2.0°C, relative to the 1981–2010 average value (Fig. 5.1). This marks a new high for the record. The average annual surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly for 2016 for land stations north of starting in 1900, and is a significant increase over the previous highest value of +1.2°C, which was observed in 2007, 2011, and 2015. Average global annual temperatures also showed record values in 2015 and 2016. Currently, the Arctic is warming at more than twice the rate of lower latitudes

Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different types of causal beliefs are held in relation to somatic or mental illness, and a variety of apparently logically incompatible beliefs may be concurrently held. Illness causal beliefs are dynamic and are related to demographic, modernizing, and acculturative factors, and to the current presence of illness. Any assumption of uniformity of illness causal beliefs within a community, even one that is relatively culturally homogeneous, is likely to be misleading. A better understanding of the diversity, and determinants, of illness causal beliefs can be of value in improving our understanding of illness experience, the clinical process, and in developing more effective health services and population health strategies.</p

Imaging the water snow-line during a protostellar outburst

A snow-line is the region of a protoplanetary disk at which a major volatile, such as water or carbon monoxide, reaches its condensation temperature. Snow-lines play a crucial role in disk evolution by promoting the rapid growth of ice-covered grains^1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Signatures of the carbon monoxide snow-line (at temperatures of around 20 kelvin) have recently been imaged in the disks surrounding the pre-main-sequence stars TW Hydra^7, 8, 9 and HD163296 (refs 3, 10), at distances of about 30 astronomical units (au) from the star. But the water snow-line of a protoplanetary disk (at temperatures of more than 100 kelvin) has not hitherto been seen, as it generally lies very close to the star (less than 5 au away for solar-type stars^11). Water-ice is important because it regulates the efficiency of dust and planetesimal coagulation5, and the formation of comets, ice giants and the cores of gas giants^12. Here we report images at 0.03-arcsec resolution (12 au) of the protoplanetary disk around V883 Ori, a protostar of 1.3 solar masses that is undergoing an outburst in luminosity arising from a temporary increase in the accretion rate^13. We find an intensity break corresponding to an abrupt change in the optical depth at about 42 au, where the elevated disk temperature approaches the condensation point of water, from which we conclude that the outburst has moved the water snow-line. The spectral behaviour across the snow-line confirms recent model predictions^14: dust fragmentation and the inhibition of grain growth at higher temperatures results in soaring grain number densities and optical depths. As most planetary systems are expected to experience outbursts caused by accretion during their formation^15, 16, our results imply that highly dynamical water snow-lines must be considered when developing models of disk evolution and planet formation

Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity

Fundamental puzzles of climate science remain unsolved because of our limited understanding of how clouds, circulation and climate interact. One example is our inability to provide robust assessments of future global and regional climate changes. However, ongoing advances in our capacity to observe, simulate and conceptualize the climate system now make it possible to fill gaps in our knowledge. We argue that progress can be accelerated by focusing research on a handful of important scientific questions that have become tractable as a result of recent advances. We propose four such questions below; they involve understanding the role of cloud feedbacks and convective organization in climate, and the factors that control the position, the strength and the variability of the tropical rain belts and the extratropical storm tracks

Genetic Associations and Architecture of Asthma-COPD Overlap

BACKGROUND: Some people have characteristics of both asthma and COPD (asthma-COPD overlap), and evidence suggests they experience worse outcomes than those with either condition alone. RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the genetic architecture of asthma-COPD overlap, and do the determinants of risk for asthma-COPD overlap differ from those for COPD or asthma? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide association study in 8,068 asthma-COPD overlap case subjects and 40,360 control subjects without asthma or COPD of European ancestry in UK Biobank (stage 1). We followed up promising signals (P < 5 x 10(-6)) that remained associated in analyses comparing (1) asthma-COPD overlap vs asthma-only control subjects, and (2) asthma-COPD overlap vs COPD-only control subjects. These variants were analyzed in 12 independent cohorts (stage 2). RESULTS: We selected 31 independent variants for further investigation in stage 2, and discovered eight novel signals (P < 5 x 10(-8)) for asthma-COPD overlap (meta-analysis of stage 1 and 2 studies). These signals suggest a spectrum of shared genetic influences, some predominantly influencing asthma (FAM105A, GLB1, PHB, TSLP), others predominantly influencing fixed airflow obstruction (IL17RD, C5orf56, HLA-DQB1). One intergenic signal on chromosome 5 had not been previously associated with asthma, COPD, or lung function. Subgroup analyses suggested that associations at these eight signals were not driven by smoking or age at asthma diagnosis, and in phenome-wide scans, eosinophil counts, atopy, and asthma traits were prominent. INTERPRETATION: We identified eight signals for asthma-COPD overlap, which may represent loci that predispose to type 2 inflammation, and serious long-term consequences of asthma.Peer reviewe

Discovery and Fine-Mapping of Glycaemic and Obesity-Related Trait Loci Using High-Density Imputation

Reference panels from the 1000 Genomes (1000G) Project Consortium provide near complete coverage of common and low-frequency genetic variation with minor allele frequency ≥0.5% across European ancestry populations. Within the European Network for Genetic and Genomic Epidemiology (ENGAGE) Consortium, we have undertaken the fi

Discovery of novel heart rate-associated loci using the Exome Chip

Resting heart rate is a heritable trait, and an increase in heart rate is associated with increased mortality risk. Genome-wide association study analyses have found loci associated with resting heart rate, at the time of our study these loci explained 0.9% of the variation. This study aims to discover new genetic loci associated with heart rate from Exome Chip meta-analyses. Heart rate was measured from either elecrtrocardiograms or pulse recordings. We meta-analysed heart rate association results from 104 452 European-ancestry individuals from 30 cohorts, genotyped using the Exome Chip. Twenty-four variants were selected for follow-up in an independent dataset (UK Biobank, N = 134 251). Conditional and gene-based testing was undertaken, and variants were investigated with bioinformatics methods. We discovered five novel heart rate loci, and one new independent low-frequency non-synonymous variant in an established heart rate locus (KIAA1755). Lead variants in four of the novel loci are non-synonymous variants in the genes C10orf71, DALDR3, TESK2 and SEC31B. The variant at SEC31B is significantly associated with SEC31B expression in heart and tibial nerve tissue. Further candidate genes were detected from long-range regulatory chromatin interactions in heart tissue (SCD, SLF2 and MAPK8). We observed significant enrichment in DNase I hypersensitive sites in fetal heart and lung. Moreover, enrichment was seen for the first time in human neuronal progenitor cells (derived from embryonic stem cells) and fetal muscle samples by including our novel variants. Our findings advance the knowledge of the genetic architecture of heart rate, and indicate new candidate genes for follow-up functional studies

Genetic variants in novel pathways influence blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk.

Blood pressure is a heritable trait influenced by several biological pathways and responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (≥140 mm Hg systolic blood pressure or  ≥90 mm Hg diastolic blood pressure). Even small increments in blood pressure are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. This genome-wide association study of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified sixteen novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate blood pressure (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3, NPR3-C5orf23, ADM, FURIN-FES, GOSR2, GNAS-EDN3); the other ten provide new clues to blood pressure physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with blood pressure in East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of blood pressure, and suggest potential novel therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention