Public health utility of cause of death data : applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality

Background: Accurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments. Methods: We describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings. Results: The proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number of deaths changes before and after redistribution for four countries: Brazil, the United States, Japan, and France, highlighting the necessity of accounting for garbage-coded deaths in the GBD

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Drivers of Reduction of Inpatient Mortality in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2021Inpatient mortality is an important indicator of the COVID-19 pandemic, both to understand the pandemic’s trajectory and to improve clinical outcomes. A reduction in inpatient mortality from COVID-19 has been described in the United States and the United Kingdom. We analyzed 21,037 patients admitted from March 1, 2020, to November 30, 2020, as part of the American Heart Association’s COVID-19 registry, and performed logistic regression on person-level hospital records. The outcome variable was in-hospital death, and covariates included demographic, clinical, and constructed hospital-level factors. Constructed variables included hospital load and time between diagnosis and hospitalization. We tested the hypothesis that hospital-level burden was associated with inpatient mortality. Of 21,037 patient admitted between March and November, 3,246 (15.4%) died in-hospital. Mortality decreased from 18.7% in March-April to 10.7% in September-November. Adjusted odds ratios for each time period were 0.68 (95% CI 0.59-0.78, P < .001) for May and June, 0.59 (0.49-0.71, P < .001) for July and August, and 0.60 (0.48-0.75, P < .001) for September through November. Hospital load was not significantly associated with inpatient mortality, and so we fail to reject the null hypothesis of this thesis. Further explanations of time effect may include mortality displacement, non-invasive oxygenation techniques, or other unmeasured factors

Examining Lead Exposures in California through State-Issued Health Alerts for Food Contamination and an Exposure-Based Candy Testing Program.

In California, the annual number of children under age 6 y of age with blood lead levels (BLL) ≥10μg/dL is estimated at over 1,000 cases, and up to 10,000 cases when BLL between 4.5 and 9.5 μg/dL are included. State-issued health alerts for food contamination provide one strategy for tracking sources of food-related lead exposures. As well, California passed legislation in 2006 for the Food and Drug Branch (FDB) of the state health department to test and identify lead in candy. This report presents health alert data from California over a 14-y period, compares data before and after the candy testing program began, and examines country of origin, ZIP code data, and time from candy testing to release of health alerts for lead-contaminated candies for 2011-2012. After 2007, health alerts issued for lead in candy and food increased significantly. Analysis of candy-testing data indicated that multiple counties and ZIP codes were affected. Seventeen candies with high lead concentrations were identified, resulting in rapid dissemination (&lt;2wk) of health alerts to local health departments and community clinicians and to the public. Surveillance of lead exposures from state-based food and candy testing programs provides an opportunity to identify and immediately act to remove nonpaint sources of lead affecting children. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2582

Use of Complementary Health Approaches Among Diverse Primary Care Patients with Type 2 Diabetes and Association with Cardiometabolic Outcomes: From the SF Bay Collaborative Research Network (SF Bay CRN).

PurposeTo describe use of complementary health approaches (CHAs) among patients with type 2 diabetes, and independent associations between CHA use and Hemoglobin A1c (A1C) and lower-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol.MethodsParticipants were enrolled onto the SMARTSteps Program, a diabetes self-management support program conducted between 2009 and 2013 in San Francisco. At the 6-month interview, CHA use in the prior 30 days was estimated using a 12-item validated instrument. Demographic and diabetes-related measures A1C were assessed at baseline and 6-month followup. AIC and LDL values were ascertained from chart review over the study period. Medication adherence was measured using pharmacy claims data at 6 and 12 months.ResultsPatients (n = 278) completed 6-month interviews: 74% were women and 71.9% were non-English speaking. Any CHA use was reported by 51.4% overall. CHA modalities included vitamins/nutritional supplements (25.9%), spirituality/prayer (21.2%), natural remedies/herbs (24.5%), massage/acupressure (11.5%), and meditation/yoga/tai chi (10.4%). CHA costs per month were $43.86 (SD = 118.08). Nearly one third reported CHA (30.0%) specifically for their type 2 diabetes. In regression models, elevated A1C (&gt;8.0%) was not significantly associated with overall CHA use (odds ratio [OR] = 1.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7 to 4.52) whereas elevated LDL was (OR = 3.93; 95% CI, 1.57 to 9.81). With medication adherence added in exploratory analysis, these findings were not significant.ConclusionsCHA use is common among patients with type 2 diabetes and may be associated with poor cardiometabolic control and medication adherence

Use of Complementary Health Approaches Among Diverse Primary Care Patients with Type 2 Diabetes and Association with Cardiometabolic Outcomes: From the SF Bay Collaborative Research Network (SF Bay CRN).

PurposeTo describe use of complementary health approaches (CHAs) among patients with type 2 diabetes, and independent associations between CHA use and Hemoglobin A1c (A1C) and lower-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol.MethodsParticipants were enrolled onto the SMARTSteps Program, a diabetes self-management support program conducted between 2009 and 2013 in San Francisco. At the 6-month interview, CHA use in the prior 30 days was estimated using a 12-item validated instrument. Demographic and diabetes-related measures A1C were assessed at baseline and 6-month followup. AIC and LDL values were ascertained from chart review over the study period. Medication adherence was measured using pharmacy claims data at 6 and 12 months.ResultsPatients (n = 278) completed 6-month interviews: 74% were women and 71.9% were non-English speaking. Any CHA use was reported by 51.4% overall. CHA modalities included vitamins/nutritional supplements (25.9%), spirituality/prayer (21.2%), natural remedies/herbs (24.5%), massage/acupressure (11.5%), and meditation/yoga/tai chi (10.4%). CHA costs per month were $43.86 (SD = 118.08). Nearly one third reported CHA (30.0%) specifically for their type 2 diabetes. In regression models, elevated A1C (&gt;8.0%) was not significantly associated with overall CHA use (odds ratio [OR] = 1.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7 to 4.52) whereas elevated LDL was (OR = 3.93; 95% CI, 1.57 to 9.81). With medication adherence added in exploratory analysis, these findings were not significant.ConclusionsCHA use is common among patients with type 2 diabetes and may be associated with poor cardiometabolic control and medication adherence

Repeated cross-sectional analysis of hydroxychloroquine deimplementation in the AHA COVID-19 CVD Registry.

There is little data describing trends in the use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 following publication of randomized trials that failed to demonstrate a benefit of this therapy. We identified 13,957 patients admitted for active COVID-19 at 85 U.S. hospitals participating in a national registry between March 1 and August 31, 2020. The overall proportion of patients receiving hydroxychloroquine peaked at 55.2% in March and April and decreased to 4.8% in May and June and 0.8% in July and August. At the hospital-level, median use was 59.4% in March and April (IQR 48.5-71.5%, range 0-100%) and decreased to 0.3% (IQR 0-5.4%, range 0-100%) by May and June and 0% (IQR 0-1.3%, range 0-36.4%) by July and August. The rate and hospital-level uniformity in deimplementation of this ineffective therapy for COVID-19 reflects a rapid response to evolving clinical information and further study may offer strategies to inform deimplementation of ineffective clinical care

Global burden of cardiovascular diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause ofglobal mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden,including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from theGlobal Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to providecomparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level datasources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deathssteadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost alsoincreased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risensteadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95%UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019.Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues itsdecades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardizedrate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries.There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the worldis to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortalitydue to noncommunicable diseases

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases