Fighting Novel Diseases amidst Humanitarian Crises

Humanitarian crises are becoming more prevalent and, frequently, more complex, in zones of mis-governance, lack of government presence, and even active conflict, marked by public mistrust and insecurity. The WHO and other health emergency responders lack the capacities and mandate to adequately respond. The current Ebola outbreak in an area of an active insurgency in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is just such a crisis. The State Department has banned U.S. personnel from the outbreak zone due to safety concerns, leaving the population feeling abandoned, potentially increasing the threat to the few brave health workers who remain. We need is to rethink health emergency response during complex crises and devise new strategies. We offer a blueprint for responding to health emergencies amidst complex humanitarian crises. This blueprint includes peacekeepers who have the mandate and modalities fit for the purpose of quelling a health emergency; “smart” diplomacy to negotiate with belligerents and community members to ensure health and humanitarian worker safety; and deploying all needed health, security, and diplomatic assets. We also call for international development assistance for health, including to support states in developing core public health capacities, creating inclusive health systems, and meeting other need like clean water and nutritious food. Political actors will need to assume their responsibilities if humanitarians and health workers are to carry out theirs

Option pricing under stochastic volatility: the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model

We study the pricing problem for a European call option when the volatility of the underlying asset is random and follows the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. The random diffusion model proposed is a two-dimensional market process that takes a log-Brownian motion to describe price dynamics and an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck subordinated process describing the randomness of the log-volatility. We derive an approximate option price that is valid when (i) the fluctuations of the volatility are larger than its normal level, (ii) the volatility presents a slow driving force toward its normal level and, finally, (iii) the market price of risk is a linear function of the log-volatility. We study the resulting European call price and its implied volatility for a range of parameters consistent with daily Dow Jones Index data.Comment: 26 pages, 6 colored figure

Safety and efficacy of co-administered diethylcarbamazine, albendazole and ivermectin during mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis in Haiti: Results from a two-armed, open-label, cluster-randomized, community study

In Haiti, 22 communes still require mass drug administration (MDA) to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem. Several clinical trials have shown that a single oral dose of ivermectin (IVM), diethylcarbamazine (DEC) and albendazole (ALB) (IDA) is more effective than DEC plus ALB (DA) for clearing Wuchereria bancrofti microfilariae (Mf). We performed a cluster-randomized community study to compare the safety and efficacy of IDA and DA in an LF-endemic area in northern Haiti. Ten localities were randomized to receive either DA or IDA. Participants were monitored for adverse events (AE), parasite antigenemia, and microfilaremia. Antigen-positive participants were retested one year after MDA to assess treatment efficacy. Fewer participants (11.0%, 321/2917) experienced at least one AE after IDA compared to DA (17.3%, 491/2844, P<0.001). Most AEs were mild, and the three most common AEs reported were headaches, dizziness and abdominal pain. Serious AEs developed in three participants who received DA. Baseline prevalence for filarial antigenemia was 8.0% (239/3004) in IDA localities and 11.5% (344/2994) in DA localities (<0.001). Of those with positive antigenemia, 17.6% (42/239) in IDA localities and 20.9% (72/344, P = 0.25) in DA localities were microfilaremic. One year after treatment, 84% percent of persons with positive filarial antigen tests at baseline could be retested. Clearance rates for filarial antigenemia were 20.5% (41/200) after IDA versus 25.4% (74/289) after DA (P = 0.3). However, 94.4% (34/36) of IDA recipients and 75.9% (44/58) of DA recipients with baseline microfilaremia were Mf negative at the time of retest (P = 0.02). Thus, MDA with IDA was at least as well tolerated and significantly more effective for clearing Mf compared to the standard DA regimen in this study. Effective MDA coverage with IDA could accelerate the elimination of LF as a public health problem in the 22 communes that still require MDA in Haiti

Probability distribution of returns in the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model

We analyze the problem of the analytical characterization of the probability distribution of financial returns in the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with stochastic volatility. In this model the prices are driven by a Geometric Brownian motion, whose diffusion coefficient is expressed through an exponential function of an hidden variable Y governed by a mean-reverting process. We derive closed-form expressions for the probability distribution and its characteristic function in two limit cases. In the first one the fluctuations of Y are larger than the volatility normal level, while the second one corresponds to the assumption of a small stationary value for the variance of Y. Theoretical results are tested numerically by intensive use of Monte Carlo simulations. The effectiveness of the analytical predictions is checked via a careful analysis of the parameters involved in the numerical implementation of the Euler-Maruyama scheme and is tested on a data set of financial indexes. In particular, we discuss results for the German DAX30 and Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50, finding a good agreement between the empirical data and the theoretical description.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figures and 3 tables. New section with real data analysis and related references added, some minor typos corrected. Accepted for publication on JSTA

Measurements of fiducial and differential cross sections for Higgs boson production in the diphoton decay channel at s√=8 TeV with ATLAS

Measurements of fiducial and differential cross sections are presented for Higgs boson production in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of s√=8 TeV. The analysis is performed in the H → γγ decay channel using 20.3 fb−1 of data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The signal is extracted using a fit to the diphoton invariant mass spectrum assuming that the width of the resonance is much smaller than the experimental resolution. The signal yields are corrected for the effects of detector inefficiency and resolution. The pp → H → γγ fiducial cross section is measured to be 43.2 ±9.4(stat.) − 2.9 + 3.2 (syst.) ±1.2(lumi)fb for a Higgs boson of mass 125.4GeV decaying to two isolated photons that have transverse momentum greater than 35% and 25% of the diphoton invariant mass and each with absolute pseudorapidity less than 2.37. Four additional fiducial cross sections and two cross-section limits are presented in phase space regions that test the theoretical modelling of different Higgs boson production mechanisms, or are sensitive to physics beyond the Standard Model. Differential cross sections are also presented, as a function of variables related to the diphoton kinematics and the jet activity produced in the Higgs boson events. The observed spectra are statistically limited but broadly in line with the theoretical expectations

Measurement of the production of a W boson in association with a charm quark in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The production of a W boson in association with a single charm quark is studied using 4.6 fb−1 of pp collision data at s√ = 7 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. In events in which a W boson decays to an electron or muon, the charm quark is tagged either by its semileptonic decay to a muon or by the presence of a charmed meson. The integrated and differential cross sections as a function of the pseudorapidity of the lepton from the W-boson decay are measured. Results are compared to the predictions of next-to-leading-order QCD calculations obtained from various parton distribution function parameterisations. The ratio of the strange-to-down sea-quark distributions is determined to be 0.96+0.26−0.30 at Q 2 = 1.9 GeV2, which supports the hypothesis of an SU(3)-symmetric composition of the light-quark sea. Additionally, the cross-section ratio σ(W + +c¯¯)/σ(W − + c) is compared to the predictions obtained using parton distribution function parameterisations with different assumptions about the s−s¯¯¯ quark asymmetry

Measurement of χ c1 and χ c2 production with s√ = 7 TeV pp collisions at ATLAS

The prompt and non-prompt production cross-sections for the χ c1 and χ c2 charmonium states are measured in pp collisions at s√ = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC using 4.5 fb−1 of integrated luminosity. The χ c states are reconstructed through the radiative decay χ c → J/ψγ (with J/ψ → μ + μ −) where photons are reconstructed from γ → e + e − conversions. The production rate of the χ c2 state relative to the χ c1 state is measured for prompt and non-prompt χ c as a function of J/ψ transverse momentum. The prompt χ c cross-sections are combined with existing measurements of prompt J/ψ production to derive the fraction of prompt J/ψ produced in feed-down from χ c decays. The fractions of χ c1 and χ c2 produced in b-hadron decays are also measured