Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements

Holzmarktmodellierung - Szenarienbasierte Folgenabschätzung verschiedener Rohholzangebotssituationen für den Sektor Forst und Holz

Different interest groups have different demands and expectations regarding the use of our forests and its resources. Conflicting claims imply various options of action for forest future management. Depending on the forest management scheme, coniferous and non-coniferous wood supply is likely to differ in the short, medium, and long term. Changing wood supply will have consequences for the domestic woodworking industry. Within the framework of the joint research project „WEHAM-Szenarien“ (funded by the BMU and BMEL) a systematic policy impact analysis was undertaken. Within the scope of this study, three different combinations of forest management and wood use scenarios were considered. The objective of the present study was to quantify potential impacts of alternative forest treatment options and timber supply volumes on the wood products markets. For this purpose, a global wood products market model was applied. The partial equilibrium model simulated supply, demand, and price developments for 180 countries and 16 products. The amount of wood available for wood production under each scenario was derived from the results of the forest management and wood use scenarios. As expected, the wood supply potential substantially differs between the scenarios. The available raw wood was exogenously divided into energetic and material use potentials. It was also crucial to differentiate between coniferous and non-coniferous wood species. The basic distinction of the wood types reveals that the wood-based market may not face an abundance of raw wood in the decades under consideration. Rather, the German woodworking industry might face shortages in domestic raw material availability and may be forced to innovate or trade in order to meet raw material demands. The modelling results are always a product of the modelling environment and the underlying assumptions. However, our results highlight that both domestic coniferous and non-coniferous roundwood production for material use would increase until 2050 if not limited by the harvesting potential imposed by the forest management scenario. On the other hand, the raw wood potentials were not always completely used by the market. The production of non-coniferous wood resources lagged behind the potential in two out of three scenarios. Once harvested the major share of raw wood was demanded by the domestic woodworking industry. Independent of the domestic production level, the demand for coniferous wood outstripped the domestic supply in each of the three scenarios considered. Thus, the trend of increasing imports of coniferous imports continued in all scenarios. However, the import volumes varied in dependence of the production capacities in the woodworking sector. Thus shortages in domestic raw wood were mainly offset by a reduction of the production capacities while the output of the woodworking industry increased together with increasing raw wood availability for material use. Despite significant differences in raw wood production, the domestic consumption of semi-finished wood-based products was similar across three scenarios. However, increasing production outputs of the woodworking industry did not lead to an increasing use of wood products in the domestic markets. The additional production was largely exported. Either way, rising domestic demand for wood products in end-use sectors could also lead to an increase in future demand for semi-finished wood products in Germany. The other way round, limiting the supply of domestic raw wood could imply adverse socio-economic effects, which may include a reduction in the production activities of the domestic woodworking sector or an increase in imports of raw wood and wood products

A systematic review of forest area development drivers estimated under the concepts of environmental Kuznets curve and forest transition hypothesis

Over the last 30 years, more than 150 different drivers of forest area development have been investigated in peer-reviewed statistical analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation (EKCd) and the forest transition hypothesis (FTH). However, there is no synthesis which of these drivers significantly contribute to changes in forest land expansion, like deforestation and forest recovery. To fill this gap, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature dealing with statistical analysis of drivers of forest area development under the concepts of EKCd and FTH. We referred to peer-reviewed articles, preselected by the evidence and gap map of Tandetzki et al 2022 Environ. Res. Lett. 17 123005. From these selected articles we identified 85 relevant studies and extracted the applied model specifications. We found differences among studies in variable specifications of the dependent variable (expressions of forest area development) and the choice of independent variables (drivers) as well as in the choice of geographical scope and the concept used (EKCd and FTH). For further analysis, we extracted all drivers used to explain forest area development in the different studies and assigned them to 12 thematic categories (e.g. income factors or institutional factors). Our results show that the main underlying drivers of deforestation are related to income, demographics, trade, and institutional factors. The forest transition phenomenon is mainly described by drivers directly influencing forest area (e.g. expansion of agricultural land) and demographic trends. The heterogeneity and universality of the concepts of EKCd and FTH is not clearly evident even when separating different study groups. By isolating and discussing individual drivers of forest area development, our findings support future research dedicated to the analysis and projection of global forest area dynamics

Assessment of Possible Production Leakage from Implementing the EU Biodiversity Strategy on Forest Product Markets

The EU Biodiversity Strategy (EUBDS) for 2030 aims at regaining biodiversity by strengthening the protection of nature in the European Union. This study models and analyses possible impacts of the EUBDS on the production and trade of forest-based products in the EU and non-EU countries in two alternative scenarios. Implementing EUBDS measures would allow a maximum EU roundwood production of roughly 281 M m3 in 2030 in the intensive and 490 M m3 in the moderate scenario. Since in the reference scenario, the EU roundwood production amounts to 539 M m3 in 2030, this represent a reduction of −48% and −9% in 2030, respectively. Until 2050, the production further decreases and accounts for 42% and 90% of the reference production. Globally, the EU roundwood production deficit is compensated partly (roughly between 50%–60%) by increasing production of roundwood in non-EU countries (e.g., USA, Russia, Canada, China and Brazil) whereas the remaining share of the EU production deficit is no longer produced and consumed worldwide. In the EU, reduced roundwood availability leads to a lower production of wood-based products, although, apparent consumption of wood-based products remains similar. This is mainly caused by significantly lower export volumes of wood-based products and, for some product groups, by significantly increased imports as well. This is partly due to unchanged assumptions regarding income and thus, demand patterns. However, on a global level, decreased production and consumption of wood-based products could lead to a growing use of non-bio-based resources to substitute wood-products. Our study also shows that the magnitude of effects strongly depends on how much the use of forest resources is actually restricted

The Timber Footprint of the German Bioeconomy—State of the Art and Past Development

The article gives a comprehensive overview of the roundwood equivalents (RE) consumed in the German bioeconomy from Germany and abroad between 1995 and 2015, i.e., the Timber Footprint of final Consumption (TFPcon). The calculation is based on an adapted version of Exiobase 3.4. The sustainability of roundwood procurement for the TFPcon is assessed. A systematic embedding of the tree compartments considered in the TFP in the context of national forest inventories and material flow analysis is presented. The results show that, in 2015, the total volume of the TFPcon of Germany is 90 Mm3 (slightly above the 1995 level) and is composed of 61% coniferous and 39% non-coniferous wood. Germany is strongly dependent on roundwood sourced from abroad and thus was a net importer of RE in 2015. Among the 17 countries with the largest supply of RE for the TFPcon, around one third very likely include large shares of roundwood procured from deforestation or clear-cutting. The self-sufficiency rate in 2015 was only 76%. It would be possible to increase domestic roundwood production by 8–41% (mainly in the hardwood sector) without exceeding the sustainability limits as defined in the WEHAM scenarios

The timber footprint of the German bioeconomy - state of the art and past development

Gefördert durch den Publikationsfonds der Universität Kasse

Abschätzung möglicher Verlagerungseffekte durch Umsetzung der EU-KOM-Vorschläge zur EU-Biodiversitätsstrategie auf Forstwirtschaft und Wälder in Drittstaaten

Übergeordnetes Ziel der Biodiversitätsstrategie für 2030 der EU ist die Erholung der biologischen Vielfalt durch Verstärkung des Schutzes und der Wiederherstellung der Natur. Schlüsselelemente zur Erreichung der Ziele sind u.a. die Schaffung von Schutzzonen auf mindestens 30 % der Land- und Meeresgebiete und ein strengerer Schutz der europäischen Wälder. Die Implementierung kon-kreter Maßnahmen im Wald wird sich unmittelbar auf die Rohholzproduktion in den EU-Mitgliedsstaaten auswirken. Es ist jedoch zu erwarten, dass mindestens ein Teil der Rohholzpro-duktion in sogenannte Drittstaaten verlagert wird. Mit solchen Verlagerungseffekten besteht ganz grundsätzlich die Gefahr des Verlustes von Biodiversität in den betreffenden Drittstaaten. Aus ei-ner globalen Perspektive müssen diese Biodiversitätsverluste dem Biodiversitätsgewinn in der EU gegenübergestellt werden. Für die Abschätzung des Einschlagsrückgangs werden drei verschiedene Umsetzungsmaßnahmen anhand verfügbarer Modellergebnisse für Deutschland untersucht und miteinander verschnitten: (i) 10 % Flächenanteil von Stilllegungsflächen im Wald, (ii) Verzicht auf die Holznutzung auf allen Standorten mit „old-growth forest“ und (iii) 30 % Anteil der verbleibenden Flächen mit natur-schutzfachlichen FFH-Bewirtschaftungsauflagen. Das Ergebnis zeigt, dass unter diesem Szenario das potenzielle Rohholzaufkommen in Deutschland im Mittel für den Betrachtungszeitraum 2018 bis 2052 um insgesamt 23,96 Mio. m³/a auf 52,77 Mio. m³/a bzw. auf 69 % reduziert würde. Diese prozentuale Reduktion wird für die folgenden Berechnungsschritte auf alle EU-27-Länder übertragen. Die Modellierung der internationalen Produktionsverlagerung mit Hilfe des globalen Holzmarkt-modells GFPM ergibt für das Jahr 2050 einen projizierten Einschlagsrückgang von 42 % in der EU-27. Eine erhöhte Produktion in Drittstaaten würde 73% dieses Einschlagsrückgangs kompensieren, der Rest wäre preisbedingt als Verzicht auf die Verwendung von Holzprodukten zu interpretieren. Die in der EU-27 verringerte Rohholzproduktion würde bis 2050 vor allem durch die erhöhte Pro-duktion von Rohholz in den USA abgefangen; ca. 26 % des gesamten Einschlagsrückgangs verlagern sich in den Modellierungsergebnissen dorthin. Weitere Verlagerungen würden nach Russland (12 %), Kanada (9 %) und Brasilien erfolgen (8 %). Betrachtet man den Verzicht auf die Verwendung von Holzprodukten, so zeigt das Modell in der Differenzierung nach Laub- und Nadelholz, dass der Verzicht auf die Verwendung von Laubholz mit 39% deutlich stärker ausfällt als der Verzicht auf die Verwendung von Nadelholz von 11%. Für Brennholzsortimente wäre die geringste Verlagerung zu erwarten. Hier zeigen die Ergebnisse einen hohen Rückgang des Verbrauchs. Grund sind deutlich steigende Preise und die Erwartung, dass Konsumenten dann auf andere Energieträger umsteigen. Für Produkte aus Papier und Pappe wurden geringe Verlagerungen errechnet. Die Verlagerungsef-fekte in der Schnittholz- und Holzwerkstoffproduktion entsprächen denen der Rohholzproduktion. Die Modellierung der internationalen Produktionsverlagerung mit Hilfe des globalen Holzmarkt-modells GFPM ergibt für das Jahr 2050 einen projizierten Einschlagsrückgang von 42 % in der EU-27. Eine erhöhte Produktion in Drittstaaten würde 73% dieses Einschlagsrückgangs kompensieren, der Rest wäre preisbedingt als Verzicht auf die Verwendung von Holzprodukten zu interpretieren. Die in der EU-27 verringerte Rohholzproduktion würde bis 2050 vor allem durch die erhöhte Pro-duktion von Rohholz in den USA abgefangen; ca. 26 % des gesamten Einschlagsrückgangs verlagern sich in den Modellierungsergebnissen dorthin. Weitere Verlagerungen würden nach Russland (12 %), Kanada (9 %) und Brasilien erfolgen (8 %). Betrachtet man den Verzicht auf die Verwendung von Holzprodukten, so zeigt das Modell in der Differenzierung nach Laub- und Nadelholz, dass der Verzicht auf die Verwendung von Laubholz mit 39% deutlich stärker ausfällt als der Verzicht auf die Verwendung von Nadelholz von 11%. Für Brennholzsortimente wäre die geringste Verlagerung zu erwarten. Hier zeigen die Ergebnisse einen hohen Rückgang des Verbrauchs. Grund sind deutlich steigende Preise und die Erwartung, dass Konsumenten dann auf andere Energieträger umsteigen. Für Produkte aus Papier und Pappe wurden geringe Verlagerungen errechnet. Die Verlagerungsef-fekte in der Schnittholz- und Holzwerkstoffproduktion entsprächen denen der Rohholzproduktion. Durch Umsetzung von Maßnahmen der EU-Biodiversitätsstrategie würde die zu erwartende Mehr-produktion von Rohholz in Drittstaaten verlagert, die im Durchschnitt eine signifikant weniger nachhaltige Waldbewirtschaftung haben und einen im Vergleich zur EU noch signifikant höheren Anteil an intakten Waldflächen aufweisen, in den vergangenen Jahren aber deutliche Anteile dieser Flächen verloren haben. Eine Bedrohung dieser noch intakten Waldflächen kann durch die Verla-gerungseffekte nicht ausgeschlossen werden. Drittstaaten, für die eine Produktionserhöhung er-wartet wird, weisen meist niedrigere Biomassevorräte und höhere Anteile bereits degradierter Landfläche auf als in der EU-27. Dies könnte einerseits eine weitere Gefährdung und andererseits auch ein Potenzial zur Förderung von Aufforstungsmaßnahmen zur Pufferung von Druck auf Na-turwälder andeuten. Die Umsetzung weiterer Schutzmaßnahmen in der EU würde die Diskrepanz zu den Schutzmaß-nahmen der Drittstaaten weiter vergrößern, da in den Drittstaaten die Nettoentwaldung höher ist, geringere Waldflächenanteile unter Schutz gestellt sind und weniger Geld für die Erhaltung der biologischen Vielfalt ausgegeben wird als in der EU. Der mittlere Rote Liste Index weist für die Drittstaaten auf ein erhöhtes Risiko des Artensterbens hin. In den meisten Drittstaaten sind Ein-kommensunterschiede größer als in EU-27-Ländern. Für besonders arme Länder könnte eine Ver-lagerung der Holzproduktion Arbeitsplätze schaffen, andererseits besteht das Risiko von Verdrän-gungseffekten für häufig Subsistenz-basierte Einkommensgruppen. Stark von Produktionsverlagerungen betroffene Länder mit hoher Vulnerabilität rücken bei der Ri-sikobewertung in den Vordergrund. Auf diese Länder sollten sich politische Maßnahmen besonders konzentrieren, um potenzielle Verlagerungseffekte abzufedern. Zusammenfassend ist zu erwarten, dass die durch Unterschutzstellung erzielten positiven Biodiver-sitätseffekte in der EU durch negative Effekte in Drittstaaten mit weniger nachhaltiger Waldbewirt-schaftung konterkariert werden. Konkrete Risiken bestehen in einer stärkeren Gefährdung bedroh-ter Arten, Reduktion intakter Waldflächen, Zunahme degradierter Landflächen und verstärkter Nettoentwaldung. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellen die Ergebnisse die Effekte der EU-Biodiversitätsstrategie in Frage, wenn die Auswirkungen auf globaler Ebene betrachtet werden. Die Implementierung der EU-Biodiversitätsstrategie müsste durch Maßnahmen zur Stärkung von nachhaltiger Waldwirtschaft und entsprechender Governance in Drittstaaten flankiert werden, um mögliche Verlagerungseffekte zu mildern. Zusammenfassend ist zu erwarten, dass die durch Unterschutzstellung erzielten positiven Biodiver-sitätseffekte in der EU durch negative Effekte in Drittstaaten mit weniger nachhaltiger Waldbewirt-schaftung konterkariert werden. Konkrete Risiken bestehen in einer stärkeren Gefährdung bedroh-ter Arten, Reduktion intakter Waldflächen, Zunahme degradierter Landflächen und verstärkter Nettoentwaldung. Vor diesem Hintergrund stellen die Ergebnisse die Effekte der EU-Biodiversitätsstrategie in Frage, wenn die Auswirkungen auf globaler Ebene betrachtet werden. Die Implementierung der EU-Biodiversitätsstrategie müsste durch Maßnahmen zur Stärkung von nachhaltiger Waldwirtschaft und entsprechender Governance in Drittstaaten flankiert werden, um mögliche Verlagerungseffekte zu mildern. Der vorliegende Bericht ist als Vorstudie zu verstehen. Er basiert auf zurzeit verfügbaren Informa-tionen. Für genauere Aussagen sind detailliertere Daten aus den EU-27-Ländern und Weiterent-wicklungen in der Methodik notwendig

Assessment of possible leakage effects of imple-menting EU COM proposals for the EU Biodiversity Strategy on forestry and forests in non-EU coun-tries

Overarching objective of the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 is recovering biodiversity by strengthening the protection and restoration of nature. Key elements are the creation of protected areas on at least 30% of Europe's land and sea area, including stronger protective measures for forests. However, any implementation of dedicated measures will reduce roundwood production in EU member states. It is to be expected that parts of this reduced roundwood production will be compensated by increasing roundwood production in non-EU countries. There is a fundamental risk of biodiversity losses in non-EU countries accompanying such leakage of roundwood produc-tion. From a global perspective, such biodiversity losses must be opposed to biodiversity gains in EU countries. The presented study provides a first assessment of possible leakage effects and rep-resents the state of work as of September 2020. At first, the presented study provides an estimate of the decline in roundwood production in EU member states as a result of implementing partial or full production restrictions in forests. In a second step, implications of reduced roundwood production within EU-27 on global wood markets are assessed. Finally, leakage of roundwood production to non-EU countries is evaluated using in-dicators related to governance, sustainable forest management, biodiversity, forest condition, de-forestation pressure and socio-economic aspects. In order to estimate the reduction in roundwood production in EU countries firstly three single implementation measures are assessed and then consolidated for Germany: (i) 10 % share of forest area set-aside, (ii) non-utilization of “old-growth forests” and (iii) 30 % share of protected forest areas under Habitats Directive management requirements. As a result, the potential roundwood production in Germany declines on average within the period examined (2018 – 2052) by 23.96 million m³/a to 52.77 million m³/a or to 69 %. In the following calculations, this reduction share is assigned to all EU-27 countries. Modelling international roundwood production leakage using the Global Forests Products Model GFPM projects an overall roundwood production decrease of 42 % in the EU-27 for the year 2050. Increased roundwood production in non-EU countries would compensate for 73 % of the de-creased roundwood production in the EU. The remaining 27 % can be understood as price-induced reduction of wood products consumption. Until 2050 EU-27’s decreased roundwood production would mainly be offset by increased production in the USA. According to the modelling results, 26 % of decreased roundwood production are leaked to the USA. Further leakage occurs to Russia (12 %), Canada (9 %) und Brazil (8 %). Differentiating non-consumption into soft- and hardwood, non-consumption of hardwood is more pronounced (39 %) than non-consumption of softwood (11 %). Consumption of fuelwood declines by 67 % but its production does not shift to non-EU countries. Basically, fuelwood is consumed to a much smaller share, due to increasing prices and the following assumed transition to other energy sources. Only small leakages are calculated for pulp and paper products. Leakages for sawn wood and wood-based panels show comparable rela-tive changes to those modelled for roundwood production. Implementation of the EU biodiversity strategy causes decreasing roundwood production in EU member states and increasing roundwood production in non-EU countries. The expected addi-tional production would be shifted to countries that have a significantly higher proportion of intact forest areas compared to the EU, but already have lost significant amounts of these areas in recent years. The described leakage poses a threat to the remaining intact forest areas in non-EU-countries. Non-EU countries with a modelled roundwood production increase often show smaller biomass stocks and higher shares of already degraded area than EU-27 member states. Either this could indicate a further threat or a potential for promoting afforestation measures to buffer pres-sure on natural forests. Further protection measures in the EU would further increase the discrepancy to protection measures of other countries. In non-EU countries, net deforestation is higher, significantly lower proportions of forest areas are placed under protection and less money is spent on the conserva-tion of biodiversity than in EU countries. The average Red List Index indicates an increased threat of extinction of species for non-EU countries. Also, income disparities are higher in non-EU coun-tries than in EU member states. For particularly poor countries, the shift of roundwood production could mean an opportunity to benefit from potential job creation, but on the other hand there is also the risk of displacement effects for often subsistence-based income groups. Countries with high additional roundwood production and high vulnerability should be primarily focused on in the risk assessment. Immediate risks are further endangerment of already endan-gered species, reduction of intact forest area, increase of degraded land area and increased net deforestation. At a global scale it is expected that positive biodiversity effects in the EU due to additional protection are counteracted by negative effects in non-EU countries. Thus, European policy measures should focus particularly on these countries in order to buffer potential leakage effects by strengthening sustainable forest management and respective governance. The presented report constitutes a pre-study on leakage effect of the EU biodiversity strategy. It uses information and data that is available at this point. However, for a more detailed analysis further data from EU member states and further development of the applied methods are neces-sary

Artificial Intelligence in Public Discourse

This book contains 26 studies conducted by students in the Cognitive Science seminar "Artificial Intelligence in Public Discourse". In their studies, they explore the use of the term Artificial Intelligence (AI) and related subfields in various parts of public discourse such as Twitter, user comments on news sites, expert interviews, government documents, television shows, newspapers, etc. It is investigated which strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats are ascribed to AI technology and how this relates to the technical and academic state of the art and discussion. Most studies employ qualitative methods, but quantitative and mixed-methods approaches are also used