Uncertainty in climate change projections

Twentieth century climate exhibits a strong warming trend. There is a broad scientific consensus that the warming contains a significant contribution from enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations due to anthropogenic emissions. The climate will continue to warm during the 21st century due to the large inertia of the Earth System and in response to additional GHG emissions, but by how much remains highly uncertain. This is mainly due to three factors: natural variability, model uncertainty, and GHG emission scenario uncertainty. Uncertainty due to natural variability dominates at short time scales of a few years up to a few decades, while at the longer centennial time scales scenario uncertainty provides the largest contribution to the total uncertainty. Model uncertainty is important at all lead times. Furthermore, our understanding of the Earth System dynamics is incomplete. Potentially important feedbacks such as the carbon cycle feedback are not well understood and not even taken into account in many model projections. Yet the scientific evidence is overwhelming that global mean surface temperature will exceed a level toward the end of the 21st century that will be unprecedented during the history of mankind, even if strong measures are taken to reduce global GHG emissions. It is this long-term perspective that demands immediate political action

Recent variability of the global ocean carbon sink

We present a new observation-based estimate of the global oceanic carbon dioxide (CO2) sink and its temporal variation on a monthly basis from 1998 through 2011 and at a spatial resolution of 1×1. This sink estimate rests upon a neural network-based mapping of global surface ocean observations of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) from the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas database. The resulting pCO2 has small biases when evaluated against independent observations in the different ocean basins, but larger randomly distributed differences exist particularly in high latitudes. The seasonal climatology of our neural network-based product agrees overall well with the Takahashi et al. (2009) climatology, although our product produces a stronger seasonal cycle at high latitudes. From our global pCO2 product, we compute a mean net global ocean (excluding the Arctic Ocean and coastal regions) CO2 uptake flux of −1.42 ± 0.53 Pg C yr−1, which is in good agreement with ocean inversion-based estimates. Our data indicate a moderate level of interannual variability in the ocean carbon sink (±0.12 Pg C yr−1, 1𝜎) from 1998 through 2011, mostly originating from the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and associated with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation. Accounting for steady state riverine and Arctic Ocean carbon fluxes our estimate further implies a mean anthropogenic CO2 uptake of −1.99 ± 0.59 Pg C yr−1 over the analysis period. From this estimate plus the most recent estimates for fossil fuel emissions and atmospheric CO2 accumulation, we infer a mean global land sink of −2.82 ± 0.85 Pg C yr−1 over the 1998 through 2011 period with strong interannual variation

Temporal changes in ventilation and the carbonate system in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

ArticleThe Southern Ocean is the most important area of anthropogenic carbon (Cant) uptake in the world ocean, only rivalled in importance by the North Atlantic Ocean. Significant variability on decadal time-scales in the uptake of Cant in the Southern Ocean has been observed and modelled, likely with consequences for the interior ocean storage of Cant in the region, and implications for the global carbon budget. Here we use eight cruises between 1973 and 2012 to assess decadal variability in Cant storage rates in the southeast Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. For this we employed the extended multiple linear regression (eMLR) method. We relate variability in DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon) storage, which is assumed to equal anthropogenic carbon storage, to changes in ventilation as observed from repeat measurements of transient tracers. Within the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) layer, which is the dominant transport conduit for Cant into the interior ocean, moderate Cant storage rates were found without any clear temporal trend. In Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW), a less dense water mass found north of the Subantarctic Front and above AAIW, high storage rates of Cant were observed up to about 2005 but lower rates in more recent times. The transient tracer data suggest a significant speed-up of ventilation in the summer warmed upper part of AAIW between 1998 and 2012, which is consistent with the high storage rate of Cant. A shift of more northern Cant storage to more southern storage in near surface waters was detected in the early 2000s. Beneath the AAIW the eMLR method as applied here did not detect significant storage of Cant. However, the presence of the transient tracer CFC-12 all through the water column suggests that some Cant should be present, but at concentrations not reliably quantifiable. The observed temporal variability in the interior ocean seems at a first glance to be out of phase with observed surface ocean Cant fluxes, but this can be explained by the time delay for the surface ocean signal to manifest itself in the interior of the ocean.Postprin

Nonuniform ocean acidification and attenuation of the ocean carbon sink

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 44 (2017): 8404–8413, doi:10.1002/2017GL074389.Surface ocean carbon chemistry is changing rapidly. Partial pressures of carbon dioxide gas (pCO2) are rising, pH levels are declining, and the ocean's buffer capacity is eroding. Regional differences in short-term pH trends primarily have been attributed to physical and biological processes; however, heterogeneous seawater carbonate chemistry may also be playing an important role. Here we use Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas Version 4 data to develop 12 month gridded climatologies of carbonate system variables and explore the coherent spatial patterns of ocean acidification and attenuation in the ocean carbon sink caused by rising atmospheric pCO2. High-latitude regions exhibit the highest pH and buffer capacity sensitivities to pCO2 increases, while the equatorial Pacific is uniquely insensitive due to a newly defined aqueous CO2 concentration effect. Importantly, dissimilar regional pH trends do not necessarily equate to dissimilar acidity ([H+]) trends, indicating that [H+] is a more useful metric of acidification.2018-02-1

Enhanced CO2 outgassing in the Southern Ocean from a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 21 (2007): GB2026, doi:10.1029/2006GB002900.We investigate the interannual variability in the flux of CO2 between the atmosphere and the Southern Ocean on the basis of hindcast simulations with a coupled physical-biogeochemical-ecological model with particular emphasis on the role of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). The simulations are run under either pre-industrial or historical CO2 concentrations, permitting us to separately investigate natural, anthropogenic, and contemporary CO2 flux variability. We find large interannual variability (±0.19 PgC yr−1) in the contemporary air-sea CO2 flux from the Southern Ocean (<35°S). Forty-three percent of the contemporary air-sea CO2 flux variance is coherent with SAM, mostly driven by variations in the flux of natural CO2, for which SAM explains 48%. Positive phases of the SAM are associated with anomalous outgassing of natural CO2 at a rate of 0.1 PgC yr−1 per standard deviation of the SAM. In contrast, we find an anomalous uptake of anthropogenic CO2 at a rate of 0.01 PgC yr−1 during positive phases of the SAM. This uptake of anthropogenic CO2 only slightly mitigates the outgassing of natural CO2, so that a positive SAM is associated with anomalous outgassing in contemporaneous times. The primary cause of the natural CO2 outgassing is anomalously high oceanic partial pressures of CO2 caused by elevated dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations. These anomalies in DIC are primarily a result of the circulation changes associated with the southward shift and strengthening of the zonal winds during positive phases of the SAM. The secular, positive trend in the SAM has led to a reduction in the rate of increase of the uptake of CO2 by the Southern Ocean over the past 50 years.This work was supported by NASA headquarters under the Earth System Science Fellowship Grant NNG05GP78H to N. S. L. and grants NAG5-12528 and NNG04GH53G to N. G. Both S. C. D. and I. D. L. were supported by NSF/ONR NOPP (N000140210370) and NASA (NNG05GG30G)

The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to recent climate change

Observations show a significant intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, the prevailing winds between the latitudes of 30° and 60° S, over the past decades. A continuation of this intensification trend is projected by climate scenarios for the twenty-first century. The response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the carbon sink in the Southern Ocean to changes in wind stress and surface buoyancy fluxes is under debate. Here we analyse the Argo network of profiling floats and historical oceanographic data to detect coherent hemispheric-scale warming and freshening trends that extend to depths of more than 1,000 m. The warming and freshening is partly related to changes in the properties of the water masses that make up the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which are consistent with the anthropogenic changes in heat and freshwater fluxes suggested by climate models. However, we detect no increase in the tilt of the surfaces of equal density across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, in contrast to coarse-resolution model studies. Our results imply that the transport in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and meridional overturning in the Southern Ocean are insensitive to decadal changes in wind stress

Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario until year 4000 AD

A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple observational data sets from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surface air and sea temperatures during the last 150 years. It is applied to a simulation of the coming two millennia following a business-as-usual scenario of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (SRES A2 until year 2100 and subsequent linear decrease to zero until year 2300, corresponding to a total release of 5100 GtC). Atmospheric CO2 increases to a peak of more than 2000 ppmv near year 2300 (that is an airborne fraction of 72% of the emissions) followed by a gradual decline to ∼1700 ppmv at year 4000 (airborne fraction of 56%). Forty-four percent of the additional atmospheric CO2 at year 4000 is due to positive carbon cycle–climate feedbacks. Global surface air warms by ∼10°C, sea ice melts back to 10% of its current area, and the circulation of the abyssal ocean collapses. Subsurface oxygen concentrations decrease, tripling the volume of suboxic water and quadrupling the global water column denitrification. We estimate 60 ppb increase in atmospheric N2O concentrations owing to doubling of its oceanic production, leading to a weak positive feedback and contributing about 0.24°C warming at year 4000. Global ocean primary production almost doubles by year 4000. Planktonic biomass increases at high latitudes and in the subtropics whereas it decreases at midlatitudes and in the tropics. In our model, which does not account for possible direct impacts of acidification on ocean biology, production of calcium carbonate in the surface ocean doubles, further increasing surface ocean and atmospheric pCO2. This represents a new positive feedback mechanism and leads to a strengthening of the positive interaction between climate change and the carbon cycle on a multicentennial to millennial timescale. Changes in ocean biology become important for the ocean carbon uptake after year 2600, and at year 4000 they account for 320 ppmv or 22% of the atmospheric CO2 increase since the preindustrial era

South Atlantic Interbasin Exchanges of Mass, Heat, Salt and Anthropogenic Carbon

The exchange of mass, heat, salt and anthropogenic carbon (Cant) between the South Atlantic, south of 24°S, and adjacent ocean basins is estimated from hydrographic data obtained during 2008-2009 using an inverse method. Transports of anthropogenic carbon are calculated across the western (Drake Passage), eastern (30°E) and northern (24°S) boundaries. The freshwater overturning transport of 0.09 Sv is southward, consistent with an overturning circulation that exports freshwater from the North Atlantic, and consistent with a bistable Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), under conditions of excess freshwater perturbation. At 30°E, net eastward Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport, south of the Subtropical Front, is compensated by a 15.9±2.3 Sv westward flow along the Antarctic boundary. The region as a whole is a substantial sink for atmospheric anthropogenic carbon of 0.51±0.37 PgC yr-1, of which 0.18±0.12 PgC yr-1 accumulates and is stored within the water column. At 24°S, a 20.2 Sv meridional overturning is associated with a 0.11 PgC yr-1 Cant overturning. The remainder is transported into the Atlantic Ocean north of 24°S (0.28±0.16 PgC yr-1) and Indian sector of Southern Ocean (1.12±0.43 PgC yr-1), having been enhanced by inflow through Drake Passage (1.07±0.44 PgC yr-1). This underlines the importance of the South Atlantic as a crucial element of the anthropogenic carbon sink in the global oceans

Episodic Southern Ocean heat loss and its mixed layer impacts revealed by the farthest south multiyear surface flux mooring

The Ocean Observatories Initiative air‐sea flux mooring deployed at 54.08°S, 89.67°W, in the southeast Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, is the farthest south long‐term open ocean flux mooring ever deployed. Mooring observations (February 2015 to August 2017) provide the first in situ quantification of annual net air‐sea heat exchange from one of the prime Subantarctic Mode Water formation regions. Episodic turbulent heat loss events (reaching a daily mean net flux of −294 W/m2) generally occur when northeastward winds bring relatively cold, dry air to the mooring location, leading to large air‐sea temperature and humidity differences. Wintertime heat loss events promote deep mixed layer formation that lead to Subantarctic Mode Water formation. However, these processes have strong interannual variability; a higher frequency of 2 σ and 3 σ turbulent heat loss events in winter 2015 led to deep mixed layers (>300 m), which were nonexistent in winter 2016

Single and repeated moderate consumption of native or dealcoholized red wine show different effects on antioxidant parameters in blood and DNA strand breaks in peripheral leukocytes in healthy volunteers: a randomized controlled trial [ISRCTN68505294]

BACKGROUND: Red wine (RW) is rich in antioxidant polyphenols that might protect from oxidative stress related diseases, such as cardiovascular disease and cancer. Antioxidant effects after single ingestion of RW or dealcoholized RW (DRW) have been observed in several studies, but results after regular consumption are contradictory. Thus, we examined if single or repeated consumption of moderate amounts of RW or DRW exert antioxidant activity in vivo. METHODS: Total phenolic content and concentration of other antioxidants in plasma/serum, total antioxidant capacity (TEAC) in plasma as well as DNA strand breaks in peripheral leukocytes were measured in healthy non-smokers A) before, 90 and 360 min after ingestion of one glass of RW, DRW or water; B) before and after consumption of one glass of RW or DRW daily for 6 weeks. DNA strand breaks (SB) were determined by single cell gel electrophoresis (Comet Assay) in untreated cells and after induction of oxidative stress ex vivo with H(2)O(2 )(300 μM, 20 min). RESULTS: Both RW and DRW transiently increased total phenolic content in plasma after single consumption, but only RW lead to a sustained increase if consumed regularly. Plasma antioxidant capacity was not affected by single or regular consumption of RW or DRW. Effects of RW and DRW on DNA SB were conflicting. DNA strand breaks in untreated cells increased after a single dose of RW and DRW, whereas H(2)O(2 )induced SB were reduced after DRW. In contrast, regular RW consumption reduced SB in untreated cells but did not affect H(2)O(2 )induced SB. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that consumption of both RW and DRW leads to an accumulation of phenolic compounds in plasma without increasing plasma antioxidant capacity. Red wine and DRW seem to affect the occurrence of DNA strand breaks, but this cannot be referred to antioxidant effects