FUTURE TRADE RESEARCH AREAS THAT MATTER TO DEVELOPING COUNTRY POLICYMAKERS

Income, welfare, poverty, consumer price, compensation

The impact of the international economic crisis on child poverty in South Africa

This paper reports on a study to provide insights into the magnitude of the shocks associated with the recent global economic crisis in macroeconomic terms in South Africa, the country’s capacity to withstand or cushion these shocks, and the extent of fragility in terms of poverty levels and child wellbeing. The analysis combines macro-economic and micro-economic tools to assess the extent of the crisis’ impact on the country. The study finds that the poverty headcount ratio increases little in the moderate crisis scenario, but substantially under the severe scenario. However, under both scenarios there is a relatively successful return to close to the business as usual trend. It is important to note though that under both scenarios, more poverty sensitive measures (the poverty gap ratio and the poverty severity ratio) decline more, and remain in negative territory longer, showing that the major impact of the crisis is on the poorest, and that this impact is most difficult to overcome.ECONOMIC CRISIS, COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, FORECASTING AND SIMULATION, ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEMS, CHILD POVERTY MEASUREMENT, SOUTH AFRICA

MIRAGRODEP 2.0: Documentation

MIRAGRODEP is a recursive-dynamic, multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model, devoted to trade and agricultural policy analysis. It is developed for AGRODEP and draws upon the MIRAGE model built by CEPII. It incorporates specific features such as foreign direct investment and runs with a tariff aggregation module that allows the user to capture the exclusion effects at a detailed level and the variance of tariffs. The model also includes a submodule allowing to test different closures for the public sector as well as the inefficiency of the tax collection system. MIRAGRODEP 2.0 includes an improved demand system. Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) and trade data in MIRAGRODEP are based on the GTAP database. Additional sources such as MacMap are used for protection data. This technical note presents an expanded documentation, with instructions on how to run the model and an illustrative application

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements