Economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets: A bio-economic approach with a focus on the EU

Projections for world food production and prices play a crucial role to evaluate and tackle future food security challenges. Understanding how these projections will be affected by climate change is the main objective of this study. By means of a bio-economic approach we assess the economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets, providing both a global analysis and a regionalised evaluation within the EU. To account for uncertainty, we analyse the IPCC emission scenario A1B for the 2030 horizon under several simulation scenarios that differ in (1) the climate projection, from HadleyCM3 (warm) or ECHAM5 (mild) global circulation models; and (2) the influence of CO2 effects. Results of this study indicate that agrifood market projections to 2030 are very sensitive to climate change uncertainties and, in particular to the magnitude of the carbon fertilization effect

Delimitations of Rural Areas in Europe Using Criteria of Population Density, Remoteness and Land Cover

This report aims to improve current delimitations of rural areas in Europe as a support to statistical descriptions by introducing the criteria of peripherality/remoteness and ¿natural (non-artificial) area¿ in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) typology. In 1994, the OECD developed an easy concept to identify rural and urban areas based on the population density of a geographical unit. This scheme proved to be highly sensitive to the size of the geographical area and the classification of the thresholds. Over the years, endeavours have been made to review and improve the OECD approach and also alternative methodologies have been proposed. The current methods based solely on population distributions, do not allow for detailed and quantified geographical analysis and do not reflect two main characters differentiating rural from urban areas: the ¿natural¿ (non-artificial) surface and the accessibility/remoteness. In this study, a new rural typology has been developed by integrating the peripherality index and the land cover indicator in the OECD methodology. The analyses were carried out at Local Administrative Unit (LAU 2) level for EU-27and then aggregated at NUTS3 and NUTS2.The methodology applied is flexible and the thresholds of accessibility or land cover implemented can easily be modified to fit-for-purpose.JRC.H.5-Rural, water and ecosystem resource

What role does climate change play in agricultural market uncertainty? An integrated assessment taking into account market-driven adjustments

Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compare a reference scenario for 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results show that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects

Grb2 and Its Apoptotic Isoform Grb3-3 Associate with Heterogeneous Nuclear Ribonucleoprotein C, and These Interactions Are Modulated by Poly(U) RNA

Grb2 is an adaptor molecule comprising one Src homology (SH) 2 and two SH3 domains. This protein has a natural isoform named Grb3-3 with a deletion within the SH2 domain. Numerous evidence points to a functional connection between SH2- and SH3-containing proteins and molecules implicated in RNA biogenesis. In this context, we have examined the binding of Grb2 and Grb3-3 to heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoprotein (hnRNP) C. By the use of an in vivo genetic approach and through in vitroexperiments, we furnish evidence that both Grb2 and Grb3-3 interact with hnRNP C proteins. Subcellular fractionation studies clearly show that Grb2 is partially localized in the nucleus. In addition, coimmunoprecipitation experiments demonstrate that Grb2·hnRNP C complexes exist in intact hematopoietic cells. The carboxyl-terminal SH3 domains of Grb2 and Grb3-3 are primarily responsible for the association with hnRNP C. However, although the proline-rich motif of hnRNP C is involved in the interaction with Grb2, it is not in the binding to Grb3-3. Furthermore, poly(U) RNA inhibits the association of Grb2 with hnRNP C, whereas it enhances the interaction between Grb3-3 and hnRNP C. These findings suggest that the Grb2/Grb3-3-hnRNP C interactions might fulfill different biological functions

Predicting mental imagery based BCI performance from personality, cognitive profile and neurophysiological patterns

Mental-Imagery based Brain-Computer Interfaces (MI-BCIs) allow their users to send commands to a computer using their brain-activity alone (typically measured by ElectroEncephaloGraphy— EEG), which is processed while they perform specific mental tasks. While very promising, MI-BCIs remain barely used outside laboratories because of the difficulty encountered by users to control them. Indeed, although some users obtain good control performances after training, a substantial proportion remains unable to reliably control an MI-BCI. This huge variability in user-performance led the community to look for predictors of MI-BCI control ability. However, these predictors were only explored for motor-imagery based BCIs, and mostly for a single training session per subject. In this study, 18 participants were instructed to learn to control an EEG-based MI-BCI by performing 3 MI-tasks, 2 of which were non-motor tasks, across 6 training sessions, on 6 different days. Relationships between the participants’ BCI control performances and their personality, cognitive profile and neurophysiological markers were explored. While no relevant relationships with neurophysiological markers were found, strong correlations between MI-BCI performances and mental-rotation scores (reflecting spatial abilities) were revealed. Also, a predictive model of MI-BCI performance based on psychometric questionnaire scores was proposed. A leave-one-subject-out cross validation process revealed the stability and reliability of this model: it enabled to predict participants’ performance with a mean error of less than 3 points. This study determined how users’ profiles impact their MI-BCI control ability and thus clears the way for designing novel MI-BCI training protocols, adapted to the profile of each user

Body composition at birth and its relationship with neonatal anthropometric ratios: the newborn body composition study of the INTERGROWTH-21(st) project.

Background We aimed to describe newborn body composition and identify which anthropometric ratio (weight/length; BMI; or ponderal index, PI) best predicts fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM). Methods Air-displacement plethysmography (PEA POD) was used to estimate FM, FFM, and body fat percentage (BF%). Associations between FFM, FM, and BF% and weight/length, BMI, and PI were evaluated in 1,019 newborns using multivariate regression analysis. Charts for FM, FFM, and BF% were generated using a prescriptive subsample (n=247). Standards for the best-predicting anthropometric ratio were calculated utilizing the same population used for the INTERGROWTH-21(st) Newborn Size Standards (n=20,479). Results FFM and FM increased consistently during late pregnancy. Differential FM, BF%, and FFM patterns were observed for those born preterm (34(+0)-36(+6) weeks' gestation) and with impaired intrauterine growth. Weight/length by gestational age (GA) was a better predictor of FFM and FM (adjusted R(2)=0.92 and 0.71, respectively) than BMI or PI, independent of sex, GA, and timing of measurement. Results were almost identical when only preterm newborns were studied. We present sex-specific centiles for weight/length ratio for GA. Conclusions Weight/length best predicts newborn FFM and FM. There are differential FM, FFM, and BF% patterns by sex, GA, and size at birth

Obeticholic acid for the treatment of non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: interim analysis from a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial

Background Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a common type of chronic liver disease that can lead to cirrhosis. Obeticholic acid, a farnesoid X receptor agonist, has been shown to improve the histological features of NASH. Here we report results from a planned interim analysis of an ongoing, phase 3 study of obeticholic acid for NASH. Methods In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study, adult patients with definite NASH,non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) activity score of at least 4, and fibrosis stages F2–F3, or F1 with at least oneaccompanying comorbidity, were randomly assigned using an interactive web response system in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive oral placebo, obeticholic acid 10 mg, or obeticholic acid 25 mg daily. Patients were excluded if cirrhosis, other chronic liver disease, elevated alcohol consumption, or confounding conditions were present. The primary endpointsfor the month-18 interim analysis were fibrosis improvement (≥1 stage) with no worsening of NASH, or NASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis, with the study considered successful if either primary endpoint was met. Primary analyses were done by intention to treat, in patients with fibrosis stage F2–F3 who received at least one dose of treatment and reached, or would have reached, the month 18 visit by the prespecified interim analysis cutoff date. The study also evaluated other histological and biochemical markers of NASH and fibrosis, and safety. This study is ongoing, and registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02548351, and EudraCT, 20150-025601-6. Findings Between Dec 9, 2015, and Oct 26, 2018, 1968 patients with stage F1–F3 fibrosis were enrolled and received at least one dose of study treatment; 931 patients with stage F2–F3 fibrosis were included in the primary analysis (311 in the placebo group, 312 in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 308 in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). The fibrosis improvement endpoint was achieved by 37 (12%) patients in the placebo group, 55 (18%) in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group (p=0·045), and 71 (23%) in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group (p=0·0002). The NASH resolution endpoint was not met (25 [8%] patients in the placebo group, 35 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group [p=0·18], and 36 [12%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group [p=0·13]). In the safety population (1968 patients with fibrosis stages F1–F3), the most common adverse event was pruritus (123 [19%] in the placebo group, 183 [28%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 336 [51%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group); incidence was generally mild to moderate in severity. The overall safety profile was similar to that in previous studies, and incidence of serious adverse events was similar across treatment groups (75 [11%] patients in the placebo group, 72 [11%] in the obeticholic acid 10 mg group, and 93 [14%] in the obeticholic acid 25 mg group). Interpretation Obeticholic acid 25 mg significantly improved fibrosis and key components of NASH disease activity among patients with NASH. The results from this planned interim analysis show clinically significant histological improvement that is reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit. This study is ongoing to assess clinical outcomes

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements

Impact of COVID-19 on cardiovascular testing in the United States versus the rest of the world

Objectives: This study sought to quantify and compare the decline in volumes of cardiovascular procedures between the United States and non-US institutions during the early phase of the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the care of many non-COVID-19 illnesses. Reductions in diagnostic cardiovascular testing around the world have led to concerns over the implications of reduced testing for cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. Methods: Data were submitted to the INCAPS-COVID (International Atomic Energy Agency Non-Invasive Cardiology Protocols Study of COVID-19), a multinational registry comprising 909 institutions in 108 countries (including 155 facilities in 40 U.S. states), assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on volumes of diagnostic cardiovascular procedures. Data were obtained for April 2020 and compared with volumes of baseline procedures from March 2019. We compared laboratory characteristics, practices, and procedure volumes between U.S. and non-U.S. facilities and between U.S. geographic regions and identified factors associated with volume reduction in the United States. Results: Reductions in the volumes of procedures in the United States were similar to those in non-U.S. facilities (68% vs. 63%, respectively; p = 0.237), although U.S. facilities reported greater reductions in invasive coronary angiography (69% vs. 53%, respectively; p < 0.001). Significantly more U.S. facilities reported increased use of telehealth and patient screening measures than non-U.S. facilities, such as temperature checks, symptom screenings, and COVID-19 testing. Reductions in volumes of procedures differed between U.S. regions, with larger declines observed in the Northeast (76%) and Midwest (74%) than in the South (62%) and West (44%). Prevalence of COVID-19, staff redeployments, outpatient centers, and urban centers were associated with greater reductions in volume in U.S. facilities in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions: We observed marked reductions in U.S. cardiovascular testing in the early phase of the pandemic and significant variability between U.S. regions. The association between reductions of volumes and COVID-19 prevalence in the United States highlighted the need for proactive efforts to maintain access to cardiovascular testing in areas most affected by outbreaks of COVID-19 infection