Computing and Representing Sea Ice Trends: Toward a Community Consensus

Estimates of the recent decline in Arctic Ocean summer sea ice extent can vary due to differences in sea ice data sources, in the number of years used to compute the trend, and in the start and end years used in the trend computation. Compounding such differences, estimates of the relative decline in sea ice cover (given in percent change per decade) can further vary due to the choice of reference value (the initial point of the trend line, a climatological baseline, etc.). Further adding to the confusion, very often when relative trends are reported in research papers, the reference values used are not specified or made clear. This can lead to confusion when trend studies are cited in the press and public reports

Snow and Ice Applications of AVHRR in Polar Regions: Report of a Workshop

The third symposium on Remote Sensing of Snow and Ice, organized by the International Glaciological Society, took place in Boulder, Colorado, 17-22 May 1992. As part of this meeting a total of 21 papers was presented on snow and ice applications of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite data in polar regions. Also during this meeting a NASA sponsored Workshop was held to review the status of polar surface measurements from AVHRR. In the following we have summarized the ideas and recommendations from the workshop, and the conclusions of relevant papers given during the regular symposium sessions. The seven topics discussed include cloud masking, ice surface temperature, narrow-band albedo, ice concentration, lead statistics, sea-ice motion and ice-sheet studies with specifics on applications, algorithms and accuracy, following recommendations for future improvements. In general, we can affirm the strong potential of AVHRR for studying sea ice and snow covered surfaces, and we highly recommend this satellite data set for long-term monitoring of polar process studies. However, progress is needed to reduce the uncertainty of the retrieved parameters for all of the above mentioned topics to make this data set useful for direct climate applications such as heat balance studies and others. Further, the acquisition and processing of polar AVHRR data must become better coordinated between receiving stations, data centers and funding agencies to guarantee a long-term commitment to the collection and distribution of high quality data

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling

Despite the continued increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in this century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus of global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method to unravel mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing the observed history of sea surface temperature over the deep tropical Pacific in a climate model, in addition to radiative forcing. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (a period including the current hiatus and an accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern and prolonged drought in southern North America. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La Niña-like decadal cooling. While similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase

Variability of humidity conditions in the Arctic during the first International Polar Year, 1882-83

Of all the early instrumental data for the Arctic, the meteorological data gathered during the first International Polar Year, in 1882–83 (IPY-1), are the best in terms of coverage, quality and resolution. Research carried out during IPY-1 scientific expeditions brought a significant contribution to the development of hygrometry in polar regions at the end of the 19th century. The present paper gives a detailed analysis of a unique series of humidity measurements that were carried out during IPY-1 at hourly resolutions at nine meteorological stations, relatively evenly distributed in the High Arctic. It gives an overall view of the humidity conditions prevalent in the Arctic at that time. The results show that the spatial distribution of atmospheric water vapour pressure (e) and relative humidity (RH) in the Arctic during IPY-1 was similar to the present. In the annual course the highest values of e were noted in July and August, while the lowest occurred in the cold half of the year. In comparison to present-day conditions (1961–1990), the mean values of RH in the IPY-1 period (September 1882 to July 1883) were higher by 2.4–5.6%. Most of the changes observed between historical and modern RH values are not significant. The majority of historical daily RH values lie between a distance of less than two standard deviations from current long-term monthly means

Identification of structural features of condensed tannins that affect protein aggregation

A diverse panel of condensed tannins was used to resolve the confounding effects of size and subunit composition seen previously in tannin-protein interactions. Turbidimetry revealed that size in terms of mean degree of polymerisation (mDP) or average molecular weight (amw) was the most important tannin parameter. The smallest tannin with the relatively largest effect on protein aggregation had an mDP of ~7. The average size was significantly correlated with aggregation of bovine serum albumin, BSA (mDP: r=-0.916; amw: r=-0.925; p<0.01; df=27), and gelatin (mDP: r=-0.961; amw: r=-0.981; p<0.01; df=12). The procyanidin/prodelphinidin and cis-/trans-flavan-3-ol ratios gave no significant correlations. Tryptophan fluorescence quenching indicated that procyanidins and cis-flavan-3-ol units contributed most to the tannin interactions on the BSA surface and in the hydrophobic binding pocket (r=0.677; p<0.05; df=9 and r=0.887; p<0.01; df=9, respectively). Circular dichroism revealed that higher proportions of prodelphinidins decreased the apparent α-helix content (r=-0.941; p<0.01; df=5) and increased the apparent β-sheet content (r=0.916; p<0.05; df=5) of BSA

Extensive retreat of Greenland tidewater glaciers 2000-2010

Overall mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet nearly doubled during the early 2000s resulting in an increased contribution to sea-level rise, with this step-change being mainly attributed to the widespread frontal retreat and accompanying dynamic thinning of tidewater glaciers. Changes in glacier calving-front positions are easily derived from remotely sensed imagery and provide a record of dynamic change. However, ice-sheet-wide studies of calving fronts have been either spatially or temporally limited. In this study multiple calving-front positions were derived for 199 Greenland marine-terminating outlet glaciers with width greater than 1 km using Landsat imagery for the 11-year period 2000–2010 in order to identify regional seasonal and inter-annual variations. During this period, outlet glaciers were characterized by sustained and substantial retreat summing to more than 267 km, with only 11 glaciers showing overall advance. In general, the pattern of mass loss detected by GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and other measurements is reflected in the calving record of Greenland glaciers. Our results suggest several regions in the south and east of the ice sheet likely share controls on their dynamic changes, but no simple single control is apparent

Anxiety and Depression in Adults with Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Adults with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are thought to be at disproportionate risk of developing mental health comorbidities, with anxiety and depression being considered most prominent amongst these. Yet, no systematic review has been carried out to date to examine rates of both anxiety and depression focusing specifically on adults with ASD. This systematic review and meta-analysis examined the rates of anxiety and depression in adults with ASD and the impact of factors such as assessment methods and presence of comorbid intellectual disability (ID) diagnosis on estimated prevalence rates. Electronic database searches for studies published between January 2000 and September 2017 identified a total of 35 studies, including 30 studies measuring anxiety (n = 26 070; mean age = 30.9, s.d. = 6.2 years) and 29 studies measuring depression (n = 26 117; mean age = 31.1, s.d. = 6.8 years). The pooled estimation of current and lifetime prevalence for adults with ASD were 27% and 42% for any anxiety disorder, and 23% and 37% for depressive disorder. Further analyses revealed that the use of questionnaire measures and the presence of ID may significantly influence estimates of prevalence. The current literature suffers from a high degree of heterogeneity in study method and an overreliance on clinical samples. These results highlight the importance of community-based studies and the identification and inclusion of well-characterized samples to reduce heterogeneity and bias in estimates of prevalence for comorbidity in adults with ASD and other populations with complex psychiatric presentations

Abrupt shifts of productivity and sea ice regimes at the western Barents Sea slope from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Bølling-Allerød interstadial

Advanced knowledge of spatio-temporal constraints on the Barents Sea Ice Sheet during the late Weichselian glaciation overshadows relatively limited understanding of seasonal sea ice (experiencing an annual advance-retreat cycle) and primary productivity trends accompanying massive, abrupt climate changes during glacial-deglacial cycles. Such paleo-reconstructions are crucial prerequisites for improved comprehension and prediction of current and future climate change. Here, we investigate sea ice and phytoplankton biomarker distributions in a Barents Sea sediment core covering ca. 25.8–15.4 cal kyr BP to elucidate abrupt shifts of spring–summer sea ice concentrations and relative sympagic–pelagic productivity trends at the southwestern continental slope. Despite significant presence of seasonal sea ice, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and initial shelf edge deglaciation (SEDG) at the core site are characterised by occurrence of productive coastal polynya adjacent to the maximum ice sheet extent. The onset of perennial (i.e. multi-year) ice cover and near-zero productivity during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; ca. 18.0–16.3 cal kyr BP) accompanies significant meltwater fluxes from ice sheet debuttressing and the consequent stagnation of thermohaline circulation. Rapid sea ice retreat and unprecedented pelagic productivity observed after 16.3 cal kyr BP coincides with areal ice sheet deglaciation and is potentially linked to the release of sub-surface heat and nutrient reservoirs, together with reinvigorated deep water circulation following millennial heating of the deep ocean during HS1. We find that a multivariate fingerprinting approach involving assessment of both downcore and surface biomarker distributions is able to distinguish relative ice-algal and pelagic diatom productivity driven by sea ice dynamics

Late quaternary sea-ice and sedimentary redox conditions in the eastern Bering Sea – Implications for ventilation of the mid-depth North Pacific and an Atlantic-Pacific seesaw mechanism

On glacial-interglacial and millennial timescales, sea ice is an important player in the circulation and primary productivity of high latitude oceans, affecting regional and global biogeochemical cycling. In the modern North Pacific, brine rejection during sea-ice freezing in the Sea of Okhotsk drives the formation of North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) that ventilates the North Pacific Ocean at 300 m to 1000 m water depth. Glacial intervals of the late Quaternary, however, experienced a deepening of glacial NPIW to at least 2000 m, with the strongest ventilation observed during cold stadial conditions of the last deglaciation. However, the origin of the shifts in NPIW ventilation is poorly understood. Numerical simulations suggest an atmospheric teleconnection between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific, in response to a slowdown or shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. This leads to a build-up of salinity in the North Pacific surface ocean, triggering deep ventilation. Alternatively, increased sea-ice formation in the North Pacific and its marginal seas may have caused strengthened overturning in response to enhanced brine rejection. Here we use a multi-proxy approach to explore sea-ice dynamics, sedimentary redox chemistry, and benthic ecology at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1343 in the eastern Bering Sea across the last 40 ka. Our results suggest that brine rejection from enhanced sea-ice formation during early Heinrich Stadial 1 locally weakened the halocline, aiding in the initiation of deep overturning. Additionally, deglacial sea-ice retreat likely contributed to increased primary productivity and expansion of mid-depth hypoxia at Site U1343 during interstadials, confirming a vital role of sea ice in the deglacial North Pacific carbon cycle