Arctic sea ice trafficability: new strategies for a changing icescape

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2017Sea ice is an important part of the Arctic social-environmental system, in part because it provides a platform for human transportation and for marine flora and fauna that use the ice as a habitat. Sea ice loss projected for coming decades is expected to change ice conditions throughout the Arctic, but little is known about the nature and extent of anticipated changes and in particular potential implications for over-ice travel and ice use as a platform. This question has been addressed here through an extensive effort to link sea ice use and key geophysical properties of sea ice, drawing upon extensive field surveys around on-ice operations and local and Indigenous knowledge for the widely different ice uses and ice regimes of Utqiaġvik, Kotzebue, and Nome, Alaska. A set of nine parameters that constrain landfast sea ice use has been derived, including spatial extent, stability, and timing and persistence of landfast ice. This work lays the foundation for a framework to assess and monitor key ice-parameters relevant in the context of ice-use feasibility, safety, and efficiency, drawing on different remote-sensing techniques. The framework outlines the steps necessary to further evaluate relevant parameters in the context of user objectives and key stakeholder needs for a given ice regime and ice use scenario. I have utilized this framework in case studies for three different ice regimes, where I find uses to be constrained by ice thickness, roughness, and fracture potential and develop assessment strategies with accuracy at the relevant spatial scales. In response to the widely reported importance of high-confidence ice thickness measurements, I have developed a new strategy to estimate appropriate thickness compensation factors. Compensation factors have the potential to reduce risk of misrepresenting areas of thin ice when using point-based in-situ assessment methods along a particular route. This approach was tested on an ice road near Kotzebue, Alaska, where substantial thickness variability results in the need to raise thickness thresholds by 50%. If sea ice is thick enough for safe travel, then the efficiency of travel is relevant and is influenced by the roughness of the ice surface. Here, I develop a technique to derive trafficability measures from ice roughness using polarimetric and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Validated using Structure-from-Motion analysis of imagery obtained from an unmanned aerial system near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, I demonstrate the ability of these SAR techniques to map both topography and roughness with potential to guide trail construction efforts towards more trafficable ice. Even when the ice is sufficiently thick to ensure safe travel, potential for fracturing can be a serious hazard through the ability of cracks to compromise load-bearing capacity. Therefore, I have created a state-of-the-art technique using interferometric SAR to assess ice stability with capability of assessing internal ice stress and potential for failure. In an analysis of ice deformation and potential hazards for the Northstar Island ice road near Prudhoe Bay on Alaska's North Slope I have identified a zone of high relative fracture intensity potential that conformed with road inspections and hazard assessments by the operator. Through this work I have investigated the intersection between ice use and geophysics, demonstrating that quantitative evaluation of a given region in the ice use assessment framework developed here can aid in tactical routing of ice trails and roads as well as help inform long-term strategic decision-making regarding the future of Arctic operations on or near sea ice

Iceberg topography and volume classification using TanDEM-X interferometry

Icebergs in polar regions affect water salinity, alter marine habitats, and impose serious hazards on maritime operations and navigation. These impacts mainly depend on the iceberg volume, which remains an elusive parameter to measure. We investigate the capability of TanDEM-X bistatic single-pass synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) to derive iceberg subaerial morphology and infer total volume. We cross-verify InSAR results with Operation IceBridge (OIB) data acquired near Wordie Bay, Antarctica, as part of the OIB/TanDEM-X Antarctic Science Campaign (OTASC). While icebergs are typically classified according to size based on length or maximum height, we develop a new volumetric classification approach for applications where iceberg volume is relevant. For icebergs with heights exceeding 5 m, we find iceberg volumes derived from TanDEM-X and OIB data match within 7 %. We also derive a range of possible iceberg keel depths relevant to grounding and potential impacts on subsea installations. These results suggest that TanDEM-X could pave the way for future single-pass interferometric systems for scientific and operational iceberg mapping and classification based on iceberg volume and keel depth

Instantaneous sea ice drift speed from TanDEM-X interferometry

The drift of sea ice is an important geophysical process with widespread implications for the ocean energy budget and ecosystems. Drifting sea ice can also threaten marine operations and present a hazard for ocean vessels and installations. Here, we evaluate single-pass along-track synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry (S-ATI) as a tool to assess ice drift while discussing possible applications and inherent limitations. Initial validation shows that TanDEM-X phase-derived drift speed corresponds well with drift products from a ground-based radar at Utqiagvik, Alaska. Joint analysis of TanDEM-X and Sentinel-1 data covering the Fram Strait demonstrates that S-ATI can help quantify the opening/closing rate of leads with possible applications for navigation. S-ATI enables an instantaneous assessment of ice drift and dynamic processes that are otherwise difficult to observe. For instance, by evaluating sea ice drift through the Vilkitsky Strait, Russia, we identified short-lived transient convergence patterns. We conclude that S-ATI enables the identification and analysis of potentially important dynamic processes (e.g., drift, rafting, and ridging). However, current limitations of S-ATI are significant (e.g., data availability and they presently only provide the cross-track vector component of the ice drift field) but may be significantly reduced with future SAR systems

Mapping Arctic Bottomfast Sea Ice Using SAR Interferometry

Bottomfast sea ice is an integral part of many near-coastal Arctic ecosystems with implications for subsea permafrost, coastal stability and morphology. Bottomfast sea ice is also of great relevance to over-ice travel by coastal communities, industrial ice roads, and marine habitats. There are currently large uncertainties around where and how much bottomfast ice is present in the Arctic due to the lack of effective approaches for detecting bottomfast sea ice on large spatial scales. Here, we suggest a robust method capable of detecting bottomfast sea ice using spaceborne synthetic aperture radar interferometry. This approach is used to discriminate between slowly deforming floating ice and completely stationary bottomfast ice based on the interferometric phase. We validate the approach over freshwater ice in the Mackenzie Delta, Canada, and over sea ice in the Colville Delta and Elson Lagoon, Alaska. For these areas, bottomfast ice, as interpreted from the interferometric phase, shows high correlation with local bathymetry and in-situ ice auger and ground penetrating radar measurements. The technique is further used to track the seasonal evolution of bottomfast ice in the Kasegaluk Lagoon, Alaska, by identifying freeze-up progression and areas of liquid water throughout winter

Multi-scale modeling of gene-behavior associations in an artificial neural network model of cognitive development

In the multi-disciplinary field of developmental cognitive neuroscience, statistical associations between levels of description play an increasingly important role. One example of such associations is the observation of correlations between relatively common gene variants and individual differences in behavior. It is perhaps surprising that such associations can be detected despite the remoteness of these levels of description, and the fact that behavior is the outcome of an extended developmental process involving interaction with a variable environment. Given that they have been detected, how do such associations inform cognitive-level theories? To investigate this question, we employed a multi-scale computational model of development, using a sample domain drawn from the field of language acquisition. The model comprised an artificial neural network model of past-tense acquisition trained using the backpropagation learning algorithm, extended to incorporate population modeling and genetic algorithms. It included five levels of description, four internal: genetic, network, neurocomputation, behavior; and one external: environment. Since the mechanistic assumptions of the model were known and its operation was relatively transparent, we could evaluate whether cross-level associations gave an accurate picture of causal processes. We established that associations could be detected between artificial genes and behavioral variation, even under polygenic assumptions of a many-to-one relationship between genes and neurocomputational parameters, and when an experience-dependent developmental process interceded between the action of genes and the emergence of behavior. We evaluated these associations with respect to their specificity (to different behaviors, to function versus structure), to their developmental stability, and to their replicability, as well as considering issues of missing heritability and gene-environment interactions. We argue that gene-behavior associations can inform cognitive theory with respect to effect size, specificity, and timing. The model demonstrates a means by which researchers can undertake modeling multi-scale modeling with respect to cognition, and develop highly specific and complex hypotheses across multiple levels of description

Search for supersymmetry in events with b-quark jets and missing transverse energy in pp collisions at 7 TeV

Results are presented from a search for physics beyond the standard model based on events with large missing transverse energy, at least three jets, and at least one, two, or three b-quark jets. The study is performed using a sample of proton-proton collision data collected at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the CMS detector at the LHC in 2011. The integrated luminosity of the sample is 4.98 inverse femtobarns. The observed number of events is found to be consistent with the standard model expectation, which is evaluated using control samples in the data. The results are used to constrain cross sections for the production of supersymmetric particles decaying to b-quark-enriched final states in the context of simplified model spectra.Comment: Submitted to Physical Review

Measurement of the underlying event activity in pp collisions at √s = 0.9 and 7 TeV with the novel jet-area/median approach

Open Access: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.-- Chatrchyan, S. et al.The first measurement of the charged component of the underlying event using the novel >jet-area/median> approach is presented for proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of 0.9 and 7 TeV. The data were recorded in 2010 with the CMS experiment at the LHC. A new observable, sensitive to soft particle production, is introduced and investigated inclusively and as a function of the event scale defined by the transverse momentum of the leading jet. Various phenomenological models are compared to data, with and without corrections for detector effects. None of the examined models describe the data satisfactorily. © 2012 SISSA.Acknowledge support from BMWF and FWF (Austria); FNRS and FWO (Belgium); CNPq, CAPES, FAPERJ, and FAPESP (Brazil); MES (Bulgaria); CERN; CAS, MoST, and NSFC (China); COLCIENCIAS (Colombia); MSES (Croatia); RPF (Cyprus); MoER, SF0690030s09 and ERDF (Estonia); Academy of Finland, MEC, and HIP (Finland); CEA and CNRS/IN2P3 (France);BMBF, DFG, and HGF (Germany); GSRT (Greece); OTKA and NKTH (Hungary); DAE and DST (India); IPM (Iran); SFI (Ireland); INFN (Italy); NRF and WCU (Korea); LAS (Lithuania); CINVESTAV, CONACYT, SEP, and UASLP-FAI (Mexico); MSI (New Zealand); PAEC (Pakistan); MSHE and NSC (Poland); FCT (Portugal); JINR (Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); MON, RosAtom, RAS and RFBR (Russia); MSTD (Serbia); SEIDI and CPAN (Spain); Swiss Funding Agencies (Switzerland); NSC (Taipei); ThEP, IPST and NECTEC (Thailand); TUBITAK and TAEK (Turkey); NASU (Ukraine); STFC (United Kingdom); DOE and NSF (USA). Individuals have received support from the Marie-Curie program and the European Research Council (European Union); the Leventis Foundation; the A. P. Sloan Foundation; the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation; the Austrian Science Fund (FWF); the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office; the Fonds pour la Formation à la Recherche dans l’Industrie et dans l’Agriculture (FRIA-Belgium); the Agentschap voor Innovatie door Wetenschap en Technologie (IWTBelgium); the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) of Czech Republic; the Council of Science and Industrial Research, India; the Compagnia di San Paolo (Torino); and the HOMING PLUS program of Foundation for Polish Science, cofinanced from European Union, Regional Development Fund.Peer Reviewe

Search for Pair Production of Third-Generation Leptoquarks and Top Squarks in pp Collisions at √s=7 TeV

Results are presented from a search for the pair production of third-generation scalar and vector leptoquarks, as well as for top squarks in R-parity-violating supersymmetric models. In either scenario, the new, heavy particle decays into a τ lepton and a b quark. The search is based on a data sample of pp collisions at √s=7  TeV, which is collected by the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 4.8  fb[superscript -1]. The number of observed events is found to be in agreement with the standard model prediction, and exclusion limits on mass parameters are obtained at the 95% confidence level. Vector leptoquarks with masses below 760 GeV are excluded and, if the branching fraction of the scalar leptoquark decay to a τ lepton and a b quark is assumed to be unity, third-generation scalar leptoquarks with masses below 525 GeV are ruled out. Top squarks with masses below 453 GeV are excluded for a typical benchmark scenario, and limits on the coupling between the top squark, τ lepton, and b quark, λ333′ are obtained. These results are the most stringent for these scenarios to date

Search for physics beyond the standard model in events with a Z boson, jets, and missing transverse energy in pp collisions at √s̅ = 7 TeV

Peer reviewe

Measurement of the sum ofWW and WZ production with W+dijet events in pp collisions at √ s = 7 TeV

A measurement of the inclusive WW+WZ diboson production cross section in proton–proton collisions is reported, based on events containing a leptonically decaying √W boson and exactly two jets. The data sample, collected at s = 7 TeV with the CMS detector at the LHC, corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb−1. The measured value of the sum of the inclusive WW and WZ cross sections is σ(pp → WW + WZ) = 68.9 ± 8.7 (stat.) ± 9.7 (syst.) ± 1.5 (lum.) pb, consistent with the standard model prediction of 65.6±2.2 pb. This is the first measurement of WW+WZ production in pp collisions using this signature. No evidence for anomalous triple gauge couplings is found and upper limits are set on their magnitudes