Direction of light propagation to order G^2 in static, spherically symmetric spacetimes: a new derivation

A procedure avoiding any integration of the null geodesic equations is used to derive the direction of light propagation in a three-parameter family of static, spherically symmetric spacetimes within the post-post-Minkowskian approximation. Quasi-Cartesian isotropic coordinates adapted to the symmetries of spacetime are systematically used. It is found that the expression of the angle formed by two light rays as measured by a static observer staying at a given point is remarkably simple in these coordinates. The attention is mainly focused on the null geodesic paths that we call the "quasi-Minkowskian light rays". The vector-like functions characterizing the direction of propagation of such light rays at their points of emission and reception are firstly obtained in the generic case where these points are both located at a finite distance from the centre of symmetry. The direction of propagation of the quasi-Minkowskian light rays emitted at infinity is then straightforwardly deduced. An intrinsic definition of the gravitational deflection angle relative to a static observer located at a finite distance is proposed for these rays. The expression inferred from this definition extends the formula currently used in VLBI astrometry up to the second order in the gravitational constant G.Comment: 19 pages; revised introduction; added references for introduction; corrected typos; published in Class. Quantum Gra

Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. METHODS: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention

Learning at large conferences:from the 'sage on the stage' to contemporary models of learning

AimTo explore and evaluate the affordances of a flipped classroom model applied to a research paper session within the professional development opportunity of a large conference setting.MethodAuthors were invited to present their research papers in a flipped classroom presentation format at two large, multi-national conferences. Before the session, authors and moderators met online to clarify features of the session, and preparation of the material. The research material was then posted online before the conference, to allow access by meeting attendees. During the sessions, moderators encouraged the audience to actively participate. An evaluation form was collected from the audience at the end of each session.ResultsParticipants found the session valuable, and appreciated the opportunity to engage in a meaningful dialogue with colleagues. However, the majority of the audience did not access the materials in advance. Lack of time, or technology-related issues were mentioned as potential challenges to such format.ConclusionIn the context of a large conference, a 'flipped session' format can facilitate active learning and a participatory culture of inquiry. However, to change the nature of how individuals learn collaboratively at large conferences means a change in the culture of continuous professional learning

The Fundamental Diagram of Pedestrian Movement Revisited

The empirical relation between density and velocity of pedestrian movement is not completely analyzed, particularly with regard to the `microscopic' causes which determine the relation at medium and high densities. The simplest system for the investigation of this dependency is the normal movement of pedestrians along a line (single-file movement). This article presents experimental results for this system under laboratory conditions and discusses the following observations: The data show a linear relation between the velocity and the inverse of the density, which can be regarded as the required length of one pedestrian to move. Furthermore we compare the results for the single-file movement with literature data for the movement in a plane. This comparison shows an unexpected conformance between the fundamental diagrams, indicating that lateral interference has negligible influence on the velocity-density relation at the density domain $1 m^{-2}<\rho<5 m^{-2}$. In addition we test a procedure for automatic recording of pedestrian flow characteristics. We present preliminary results on measurement range and accuracy of this method.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figure

Observations of TeV photons at the Whipple Observatory

The Whipple Observatory 10 m gamma‐ray telescope has been used to search for TeV gamma‐ray emission from a number of objects. This paper reports observations of six galactic and three extragalactic objects using the Cherenkov image technique. With the introduction of a high‐resolution camera (1/4° pixel) in 1988, the Crab Nebula was detected at a significance level of 20 σ in 30 hours of on‐source observation. Upper limits at a fraction of the Crab flux are set for most of the other objects, based on the absence of any significant dc excess or periodic effect when an a priori Monte Carlo determined imaging selection criterion (the ‘‘azwidth cut’’) is employed. There are weak indications that one source, Hercules X‐1, may be an episodic emitter. The Whipple detection system will be improved shortly with the addition of a second reflector 11 m in diameter (GRANITE) for stereoscopic viewing of showers. The combination of the two‐reflector system should have a signal‐to‐noise advantage of 103 over a simple nonimaging Cherenkov receiver.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/87437/2/47_1.pd

Detection of TeV gamma rays from the AGN Markarian 421

We present here the detection of TeV gamma rays from the extragalactic source Markarian 421. Observations obtained with the Whipple 10 m imaging Cherenkov telescope in March–June 1992 give a gamma ray signal with statistical significance of 6.3σ above background. The excess corresponds to an average flux of 1.5×10−11 cm−2 s−1 above 0.5 TeV, equivalent to 0.3 of that from the Crab Nebula. The estimated location of the source agrees with the position of Mrk 421 to the angular uncertainty of the Whipple instrument (6 arc minutes).Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/87671/2/185_1.pd

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles.

OBJECTIVE: Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland. METHODS: CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted. RESULTS: Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25-84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8-7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1-3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2-5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8-9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity

Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys

<i>Gaia</i> Data Release 1. Summary of the astrometric, photometric, and survey properties

Context. At about 1000 days after the launch of Gaia we present the first Gaia data release, Gaia DR1, consisting of astrometry and photometry for over 1 billion sources brighter than magnitude 20.7. Aims. A summary of Gaia DR1 is presented along with illustrations of the scientific quality of the data, followed by a discussion of the limitations due to the preliminary nature of this release. Methods. The raw data collected by Gaia during the first 14 months of the mission have been processed by the Gaia Data Processing and Analysis Consortium (DPAC) and turned into an astrometric and photometric catalogue. Results. Gaia DR1 consists of three components: a primary astrometric data set which contains the positions, parallaxes, and mean proper motions for about 2 million of the brightest stars in common with the HIPPARCOS and Tycho-2 catalogues – a realisation of the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS) – and a secondary astrometric data set containing the positions for an additional 1.1 billion sources. The second component is the photometric data set, consisting of mean G-band magnitudes for all sources. The G-band light curves and the characteristics of ∼3000 Cepheid and RR-Lyrae stars, observed at high cadence around the south ecliptic pole, form the third component. For the primary astrometric data set the typical uncertainty is about 0.3 mas for the positions and parallaxes, and about 1 mas yr−1 for the proper motions. A systematic component of ∼0.3 mas should be added to the parallax uncertainties. For the subset of ∼94 000 HIPPARCOS stars in the primary data set, the proper motions are much more precise at about 0.06 mas yr−1. For the secondary astrometric data set, the typical uncertainty of the positions is ∼10 mas. The median uncertainties on the mean G-band magnitudes range from the mmag level to ∼0.03 mag over the magnitude range 5 to 20.7. Conclusions. Gaia DR1 is an important milestone ahead of the next Gaia data release, which will feature five-parameter astrometry for all sources. Extensive validation shows that Gaia DR1 represents a major advance in the mapping of the heavens and the availability of basic stellar data that underpin observational astrophysics. Nevertheless, the very preliminary nature of this first Gaia data release does lead to a number of important limitations to the data quality which should be carefully considered before drawing conclusions from the data

How important is the context of an adolescent's first alcoholic drink? Evidence that parental provision may reduce later heavy episodic drinking

Objective: This study examined the extent to which a retrospective measure of parental provision of the first alcoholic beverage was related to current heavy episodic drinking and current responsible drinking practices. Sample: 608 14- to 17-year-olds from the 2007 Australian National Drug Strategy Household Survey. Measures: Source of first alcoholic beverage (friends/parents/others), source of current alcohol, age of onset of alcohol use, current responsible drinking practices, and proportion of current friends who drink. Results: Binary logistic and multiple regression procedures revealed that parental provision of an adolescent's first alcoholic beverage predicted lower current heavy episodic drinking, and responsible drinking mediated this association. Discussion: The results suggested that for adolescents who become alcohol users, parental provision of the first drink may reduce subsequent alcohol-related risks compared to introduction to alcohol by friends and other sources. Alcohol-related risks remain significant for adolescents who consume alcohol, independent of who is the provider. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base