Ecological model of extinctions

We present numerical results based on a simplified ecological system in evolution, showing features of extinction similar to that claimed for the biosystem on Earth. In the model each species consists of a population in interaction with the others, that reproduces and evolves in time. Each species is simultaneously a predator and a prey in a food chain. Mutations that change the interactions are supposed to occur randomly at a low rate. Extinctions of populations result naturally from the predator-prey dynamics. The model is not pinned in a fitness variable, and natural selection arises from the dynamics.Comment: 16 pages (LaTeX type, RevTeX style), including 6 figures in gif format. To be published in Phys. Rev. E (prob. Dic. 96

The spread of epidemic disease on networks

The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are non-uniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figure

Inflammatory markers and incident mobility limitation in the elderly

OBJECTIVES: To examine the relationship between indicators of inflammation and the incidence of mobility limitation in older persons. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study: the Health, Aging and Body Composition Study. SETTING: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and Memphis, Tennessee. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2,979 men and women, aged 70 to 79, without mobility limitation at baseline. MEASUREMENTS: Serum levels of interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα), and C-reactive protein (CRP) and soluble cytokine receptors (IL-2sR, IL-6sR, TNFsR1, TNFsR2) were measured. Mobility limitation was assessed and defined as reporting difficulty or inability to walk one-quarter of a mile or to climb 10 steps during two consecutive semiannual assessments over 30 months. RESULTS: Of the 2,979 participants, 30.1% developed incident mobility limitation. After adjustment for confounders (demographics, prevalent conditions at baseline, body composition), the relative risk (RR) of incident mobility limitation per standard deviation (SD) increase was 1.19 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.10-1.28) for IL-6, 1.20 (95% CI = 1.12-1.29) for TNFα and 1.40 (95% CI = 1.18-1.68) for CRP. The association between inflammation and incident mobility limitation was especially strong for the onset of more severe mobility limitation and when the levels of multiple inflammatory markers were high. When persons with baseline or incident cardiovascular disease events or persons who were hospitalized during study follow-up were excluded, findings remained similar. In a subset (n = 499), high levels of the soluble receptors IL2sR and TNFsR1 (per SD increase: RR = 1.23 (95% CI = 1.04-1.46) and RR = 1.28 (95% CI = 1.04-1.57), respectively) were also associated with incident mobility limitation. CONCLUSION: Findings suggest that inflammation is prognostic for incident mobility limitation over 30 months, independent of cardiovascular disease events and incident severe illness

Inflammatory Markers and Onset of Cardiovascular Events: Results from the Health ABC Study

Background - Inflammation plays an important role in cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study is to investigate the predictive value of several inflammatory markers on the incidence of cardiovascular events in well-functioning older persons. Methods and Results - The subjects were 2225 participants 70 to 79 years old, without baseline cardiovascular disease, who were enrolled in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition study. Incident coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and congestive heart failure (CHF) events were detected during an average follow-up of 3.6 years. Blood levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP), and tumor necrosis factor-\uce\ub1 (TNF-\uce\ub1) were assessed. After adjustment for potential confounders, IL-6 was significantly associated with all outcomes (CHD events, per IL-6 SD increase: RR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.10 to 1.48; stroke events, per IL-6 SD increase: RR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.86; CHF events, per IL-6 SD increase: RR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.40 to 2.12). TNF-\uce\ub1 showed significant associations with CHD (per TNF-\uce\ub1 SD increase: RR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.43) and CHF (per TNF-\uce\ub1 SD increase: RR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.30 to 1.95) events. CRP was significantly associated with CHF events (per CRP SD increase: RR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.23 to 1.78). A composite summary indicator of inflammation showed a strong association with incident cardiovascular events, with an especially high risk if all 3 inflammatory markers were in the highest tertile. Conclusions - Findings suggest that inflammatory markers are independent predictors of cardiovascular events in older persons

Effect of left ventricular hypertrophy on long-term survival of patients with coronary artery disease following percutaneous coronary intervention

The impact of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) on survival among patients with established coronary artery disease (CAD) is not well understood. We sought to evaluate the effect of LVH on the survival of patients with CAD following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Three hospitals in New York City contributed prospectively defined data on 4284 consecutive patients undergoing PCI. Allcause mortality at a mean follow-up of three years was the primary endpoint. LVH was present in 383 patients (8.9%). LVH patients had a greater prevalence of hypertension (88% vs. 68%, p<0.001), vascular disease (21% vs. 6.6%, p=0.001), and prior heart failure (10% vs. 5.5%, p<0.001). LVH patients presented less often with one-vessel disease (38% vs. 50%, p=0.040) and more often with two- (34% vs. 29%, p=0.014) or three-vessel (22% vs. 18%, p=0.044) disease. Ejection fractions and angiographic success were similar in both groups. In-hospital mortality did not differ between groups. At three-year follow-up, the survival rate for patients with LVH was 86% vs. 91% in patients without LVH (log-rank p=0.001). However, after adjustment for differences in baseline characteristics using Cox proportional hazards analysis, LVH was found not to be an independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.68–1.28; p=0.67). We conclude that LVH at the time of PCI is not independently associated with an increase in the hazard of death at three years

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results

Jet size dependence of single jet suppression in lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s(NN)) = 2.76 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

Measurements of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions at the LHC provide direct sensitivity to the physics of jet quenching. In a sample of lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s) = 2.76 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of approximately 7 inverse microbarns, ATLAS has measured jets with a calorimeter over the pseudorapidity interval |eta| < 2.1 and over the transverse momentum range 38 < pT < 210 GeV. Jets were reconstructed using the anti-kt algorithm with values for the distance parameter that determines the nominal jet radius of R = 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The centrality dependence of the jet yield is characterized by the jet "central-to-peripheral ratio," Rcp. Jet production is found to be suppressed by approximately a factor of two in the 10% most central collisions relative to peripheral collisions. Rcp varies smoothly with centrality as characterized by the number of participating nucleons. The observed suppression is only weakly dependent on jet radius and transverse momentum. These results provide the first direct measurement of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions and complement previous measurements of dijet transverse energy imbalance at the LHC.Comment: 15 pages plus author list (30 pages total), 8 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Physics Letters B. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at http://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/HION-2011-02

GWAS analysis of handgrip and lower body strength in older adults in the CHARGE consortium

Decline in muscle strength with aging is an important predictor of health trajectory in the elderly. Several factors, including genetics, are proposed contributors to variability in muscle strength. To identify genetic contributors to muscle strength, a meta-analysis of genomewide association studies of handgrip was conducted. Grip strength was measured using a handheld dynamometer in 27 581 individuals of European descent over 65 years of age from 14 cohort studies. Genomewide association analysis was conducted on ~2.7 million imputed and genotyped variants (SNPs). Replication of the most significant findings was conducted using data from 6393 individuals from three cohorts. GWAS of lower body strength was also characterized in a subset of cohorts. Two genomewide significant (P-value< 5 × 10−8) and 39 suggestive (P-value< 5 × 10−5) associations were observed from meta-analysis of the discovery cohorts. After meta-analysis with replication cohorts, genomewide significant association was observed for rs752045 on chromosome 8 (β = 0.47, SE = 0.08, P-value = 5.20 × 10−10). This SNP is mapped to an intergenic region and is located within an accessible chromatin region (DNase hypersensitivity site) in skeletal muscle myotubes differentiated from the human skeletal muscle myoblasts cell line. This locus alters a binding motif of the CCAAT/enhancer-binding protein-β (CEBPB) that is implicated in muscle repair mechanisms. GWAS of lower body strength did not yield significant results. A common genetic variant in a chromosomal region that regulates myotube differentiation and muscle repair may contribute to variability in grip strength in the elderly. Further studies are needed to uncover the mechanisms that link this genetic variant with muscle strength