The effect of trading activity on volatility in commodity futures

Analytikere og forskere bruker økonomisk teori og empiriske funn for å identifisere forklaringsvariabler som kan forbedre prognoser for volatilitet. I denne oppgaven undersøker jeg forholdet mellom volatilitet, volum og open interest for seks utvalgte råvarefutures handlet i USA. Jeg benytter meg av to forskjellige metoder, OLS-basert og GARCH-basert modelleringsmetodikk, for å undersøke dette forholdet. Volum og open interest blir inkludert i variansligningen som forklaringsvariabler i begge modellene. Handlet volum og open interest blir inndelt i forventede og uforventede komponenter for å kunne skille mellom effekten av disse på volatiliteten. Dummy variabler for de uforventede komponentene blir også inkludert i variansligningen for å se om det finnes en asymmetrisk effekt av uforventet handelsaktivitet på volatiliteten. Resultatene indikerer at både volum og open interest kan forklare volatiliteten i råvarefutures. Empiriske funn i denne oppgaven tyder på at volatiliteten er høyere i perioder med høyt handlet volum for råvarefutures. Både forventet og uforventet volum er positivt korrelert med volatiliteten, hvor en økning i uforventet volum har en større effekt på volatiliteten i forhold til en økning i forventet volum. Resultatene oppnådd i denne oppgaven viser ingen tegn på at eksisterende open interest reduserer eller "demper" volatiliteten i et marked. Derimot viser resultatene at en økning i uforventet open interest reduserer volatiliteten. Med andre ord kan effekten av et volumsjokk på volatiliteten reduseres, avhengig av om open interest øker eller minker. Tilslutt viser resultatene ingen asymmetrisk effekt av uforventet handelsaktivitet på volatiliteten med unntak av for gull- og sølvkontrakten. For disse kontraktene har positive sjokk i volum en større effekt på volatiliteten enn negative sjokk i volum. Økt kunnskap om forholdet mellom volatilitet, volum og open interest vil kunne hjelpe markedsaktører til å ta bedre beslutninger i futuresmarkedet. Markedsaktører kan benytte volum og open interest som en proxy for henholdsvis informasjonsankomst og markedsdybde i markedene.Analysts and researchers use economic theory and empirical findings to identify variables that can improve volatility forecasts. In this paper I examine the relationship between volatility, volume and open interest for six selected commodity futures traded in the United States. Two different methods, OLS-based and GARCH-based modeling methodology, is used to examine this relationship. Volume and open interest are included in the variance equation as explanatory variables in both models. Traded volume and open interest are divided into expected and unexpected components to distinguish between the effects of these on volatility. Dummy variables for the unexpected components are also included in the variance equation to see if there is an asymmetrical effect of unexpected trading activity on volatility. The results indicate that both volume and open interest can explain volatility in commodity futures. Empirical findings in this thesis suggest that there is higher volatility in periods of high trading volume in commodity futures. Both expected and unexpected volume is positively correlated with volatility, where an increase in unexpected volume has a greater effect on volatility relative to expected volume. The results obtained in this study show no evidence that existing open interest significantly "mitigates" price volatility in a market. However, the results show that an increase in unexpected open interest reduces volatility. In other words, the effect of a volume shock on volatility decreases, depending on whether open interest increases or decreases. Finally, the results show no asymmetrical effect of unexpected trading activity on volatility, except for the gold and silver contracts. For these contracts, positive shocks in volume have a greater effect on volatility that negative shocks in volume. Increased knowledge about the relationship between volatility, volume and open interest will be able to help market participants make better decisions in the commodity futures market. Market participants can use volume as a proxy for information arrival and open interest as a proxy for market depth in the commodity futures market.M-Ø

The effect of trading activity on volatility in commodity futures

Analytikere og forskere bruker økonomisk teori og empiriske funn for å identifisere forklaringsvariabler som kan forbedre prognoser for volatilitet. I denne oppgaven undersøker jeg forholdet mellom volatilitet, volum og open interest for seks utvalgte råvarefutures handlet i USA. Jeg benytter meg av to forskjellige metoder, OLS-basert og GARCH-basert modelleringsmetodikk, for å undersøke dette forholdet. Volum og open interest blir inkludert i variansligningen som forklaringsvariabler i begge modellene. Handlet volum og open interest blir inndelt i forventede og uforventede komponenter for å kunne skille mellom effekten av disse på volatiliteten. Dummy variabler for de uforventede komponentene blir også inkludert i variansligningen for å se om det finnes en asymmetrisk effekt av uforventet handelsaktivitet på volatiliteten. Resultatene indikerer at både volum og open interest kan forklare volatiliteten i råvarefutures. Empiriske funn i denne oppgaven tyder på at volatiliteten er høyere i perioder med høyt handlet volum for råvarefutures. Både forventet og uforventet volum er positivt korrelert med volatiliteten, hvor en økning i uforventet volum har en større effekt på volatiliteten i forhold til en økning i forventet volum. Resultatene oppnådd i denne oppgaven viser ingen tegn på at eksisterende open interest reduserer eller "demper" volatiliteten i et marked. Derimot viser resultatene at en økning i uforventet open interest reduserer volatiliteten. Med andre ord kan effekten av et volumsjokk på volatiliteten reduseres, avhengig av om open interest øker eller minker. Tilslutt viser resultatene ingen asymmetrisk effekt av uforventet handelsaktivitet på volatiliteten med unntak av for gull- og sølvkontrakten. For disse kontraktene har positive sjokk i volum en større effekt på volatiliteten enn negative sjokk i volum. Økt kunnskap om forholdet mellom volatilitet, volum og open interest vil kunne hjelpe markedsaktører til å ta bedre beslutninger i futuresmarkedet. Markedsaktører kan benytte volum og open interest som en proxy for henholdsvis informasjonsankomst og markedsdybde i markedene.Analysts and researchers use economic theory and empirical findings to identify variables that can improve volatility forecasts. In this paper I examine the relationship between volatility, volume and open interest for six selected commodity futures traded in the United States. Two different methods, OLS-based and GARCH-based modeling methodology, is used to examine this relationship. Volume and open interest are included in the variance equation as explanatory variables in both models. Traded volume and open interest are divided into expected and unexpected components to distinguish between the effects of these on volatility. Dummy variables for the unexpected components are also included in the variance equation to see if there is an asymmetrical effect of unexpected trading activity on volatility. The results indicate that both volume and open interest can explain volatility in commodity futures. Empirical findings in this thesis suggest that there is higher volatility in periods of high trading volume in commodity futures. Both expected and unexpected volume is positively correlated with volatility, where an increase in unexpected volume has a greater effect on volatility relative to expected volume. The results obtained in this study show no evidence that existing open interest significantly "mitigates" price volatility in a market. However, the results show that an increase in unexpected open interest reduces volatility. In other words, the effect of a volume shock on volatility decreases, depending on whether open interest increases or decreases. Finally, the results show no asymmetrical effect of unexpected trading activity on volatility, except for the gold and silver contracts. For these contracts, positive shocks in volume have a greater effect on volatility that negative shocks in volume. Increased knowledge about the relationship between volatility, volume and open interest will be able to help market participants make better decisions in the commodity futures market. Market participants can use volume as a proxy for information arrival and open interest as a proxy for market depth in the commodity futures market.M-Ø

ZnO Nano-swirlings for Azo Dye AR183 photocatalytic degradation and antimycotic activity

The sol-gel technique was used to fabricate ZnO Nano-swirlings (ZNsw) at a predetermined agitation rate (of \u3e\u3e 1900 rpm), with around 21.94 gm of zinc acetate dihydrate and 0.2 g cetyltrimethylammoniumbromide (CTAB) and a cationic surfactant (drop-wise). The impact of the predetermined agitation condition on the molecular size and morphology of ZNsw is examined, and the outcomes are dissected by useful characterization tools and techniques viz. XRD, SEM embedded with EDS, TEM, FT-IR and UV–visible. The SEM and TEM results suggest that the product formed into a big cluster of adequate ZNsw, containing a significant quantity of folded long thread-lengths. Each group indicated a fair amount of the volume of these lengths. The photocatalytic process of ZNsw was carried out as a result of the irradiation time due to the deterioration of Azo Dye AR183, resulting in approximately 79 percent dye discoloration following an 80-min UV light irradiation in the presence of ZNsw. Additionally, the synthesized ZNsw was tested for antagonistic activity, and the growth hindrance of two plant pathogenic fungal strains found. Per cent inhibition in growth of Rhizoctonia solani and Alternaria alternata were observed in response to ZNsw

Point prevalence survey of antimicrobial use during the COVID-19 pandemic among different hospitals in Pakistan : findings and implications

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced antimicrobial use in hospitals raising concerns regarding increased antimicrobial resistance (AMR) through their overuse. The objective of this study was to assess patterns of antimicrobial prescribing during the current COVID-19 pandemic among hospitals in Pakistan, including the prevalence of COVID-19. A point prevalence survey (PPS) was performed among 11 different hospitals from November 2020 to January 2021. The study included all hospitalized patients receiving an antibiotic on the day of the PPS. The Global-PPS web-based application was used for data entry and analysis. Out of 1024 hospitalized patients, 662 (64.64%) received antimicrobials. The top three most common indications for antimicrobial use were pneumonia (13.3%), central nervous system infections (10.4%) and gastrointestinal indications (10.4%). Ceftriaxone (26.6%), metronidazole (9.7%) and vancomycin (7.9%) were the top three most commonly prescribed antimicrobials among surveyed patients, with the majority of antibiotics administered empirically (97.9%). Most antimicrobials for surgical prophylaxis were given for more than one day, which is a concern. Overall, a high percentage of antimicrobial use, including broad-spectrums, was seen among the different hospitals in Pakistan during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Multifaceted interventions are needed to enhance rational antimicrobial prescribing including limiting their prescribing post-operatively for surgical prophylaxis

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Funding: F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT), in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy i4HB; FCT/MCTES through the project UIDB/50006/2020. J Conde acknowledges the European Research Council Starting Grant (ERC-StG-2019-848325). V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006.proofepub_ahead_of_prin

Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990–2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021–30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050. Methods In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model. Findings Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535–656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8–8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3–134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4–89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9–67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7–105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1–135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7–557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6–10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3–510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8–6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0–9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI –1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling. Interpretation Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe