A complex networks based analysis of jump risk in equity returns:An evidence using intraday movements from Pakistan stock market

International audienceWe employ a multi-stage methodology combining complex network analytics and financial risk modelling to unveil the correlation structures amongst the price jump risks of companies forming the KSE-100 index in Pakistan. We identify the most influential companies in terms of jump risk, and identify communities — clusters of companies with similar price movement characteristics or with highly correlated price jumps. We find that equities in Pakistan stock market experience jumps in different time periods that are correlated to varying degrees within and across industries resulting in 19 different communities, four of which are strongly connected. While Oil & Gas, Cement and Banking sectors exhibit a significant representation of firms in communities, the automobile industry, however, seems to play an important role in risk propagation. These results provide an interesting insight to investors and other stakeholders from an emerging market viewpoint identifying the major sectors driving the volatility of KSE-100 index

Estrategia de precaución de la práctica de riesgos morales en los seguros agrícolas en Indonesia: un enfoque de la metodología de los sistemas blandos

[EN] This paper uses Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) to formulate strategies to prevent moral hazard acts in agricultural insurance in Indonesia. Agricultural insurance takes place, mainly, through Rice Crop Insurance and Cattle Insurance. Generally, the strategies that can be performed to minimize moral hazard practice in agricultural insurance programs are: developing the capacity of human resources, improving field communication, enforcing penalties, institutional strengthening, and adding new products through Islamic agricultural insurance. Specifically, this paper proposes that the prevention of moral hazard practices can be done by implementing Islamic agricultural insurance systems with the concept of risk-sharing instead of risk transfer.[ES] Este trabajo utiliza Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) para formular estrategias para prevenir el riesgo moral en los seguros agrícolas en Indonesia. El Seguro de Cosecha de Arroz y el Seguro de Ganado son los más utilizados. Las estrategias son: desarrollo de la capacidad de los recursos humanos, mejora de la comunicación sobre el terreno, aplicación de sanciones, fortalecimiento institucional e incorporación de nuevos productos a través del seguro agrícola islámico. En concreto, se propone que la prevención del riesgo moral puede realizarse mediante sistemas de seguros agrícolas islámicos basados en el concepto de compartir el riesgo en lugar de transferirlo.The authors thank Lembaga Pengelola Dana Pendidikan (LPDP), Riset Inovatif Produktif (RISPRO) Tata Kelola/Kebijakan No. PRJ-120/LPDP/2019, the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia, the Regional Development Planning Board (BAPPEDA) Aceh, Agriculture and Plantation Department (DISTANBUN) Aceh, Animal Husbandry Department (DISNAK) Aceh.Fadhil, R.; Yusuf, MY.; Bahri, TS.; Maulana, H.; Fakhrurrazi, F. (2021). Precaution Strategy of Moral Hazard Practice in Agricultural Insurance in Indonesia: An Approach of Soft Systems Methodology. Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales - Agricultural and Resource Economics. 21(2):79-99. https://doi.org/10.7201/earn.2021.02.04OJS799921

Sphingosine kinase 1 overexpression induces MFN2 fragmentation and alters mitochondrial matrix Ca2+ handling in HeLa cells

Sphingosine kinase 1 (SKI) converts sphingosine to the bioactive lipid sphingosine 1-phosphate (SIP). SW binds to G-protein-coupled receptors (S1PR(1-5)) to regulate cellular events, including Ca2+ signaling. The SK1/S1P axis and Ca2+ signaling both play important roles in health and disease. In this respect, Ca2+ microdomains at the mitochondria-associated endoplasmic reticulum (ER) membranes (MAMs) are of importance in oncogenesis. Mitofusin 2 (MFN2) modulates ER-mitochondria contacts, and dysregulation of MFN2 is associated with malignancies. We show that overexpression of SKI augments agonist-induced Ca2+ release from the ER resulting in increased mitochondria] matrix Ca2+. Also, overexpression of SK1 induces MFN2 fragmentation, likely through increased calpain activity. Further, expressing putative calpain-cleaved MFN2 N- and C-terminal fragments increases mitochondrial matrix Ca2+ during agonist stimulation, mimicking the SK1 overexpression in cells. Moreover, SK1 overexpression enhances cellular respiration and cell migration. Thus, SK1 regulates MFN2 fragmentation resulting in increased mitochondrial Ca2+ and downstream cellular effects.Peer reviewe

Development of HDAC Inhibitors Exhibiting Therapeutic Potential in T-Cell Prolymphocytic Leukemia

Epigenetic targeting has emerged as an efficacious therapy for hematological cancers. The rare and incurable T-cell prolymphocytic leukemia (T-PLL) is known for its aggressive clinical course. Current epigenetic agents such as histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitors are increasingly used for targeted therapy. Through a structure-activity relationship (SAR) study, we developed an HDAC6 inhibitor KT-531, which exhibited higher potency in T-PLL compared to other hematological cancers. KT-531 displayed strong HDAC6 inhibitory potency and selectivity, on-target biological activity, and a safe therapeutic window in nontransformed cell lines. In primary T-PLL patient cells, where HDAC6 was found to be overexpressed, KT-531 exhibited strong biological responses, and safety in healthy donor samples. Notably, combination studies in T-PLL patient samples demonstrated KT-531 synergizes with approved cancer drugs, bendamustine, idasanutlin, and venetoclax. Our work suggests HDAC inhibition in T-PLL could afford sufficient therapeutic windows to achieve durable remission either as standalone or in combination with targeted drugs.Peer reviewe

Public health utility of cause of death data : applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality

Background: Accurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments. Methods: We describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings. Results: The proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number of deaths changes before and after redistribution for four countries: Brazil, the United States, Japan, and France, highlighting the necessity of accounting for garbage-coded deaths in the GBD

Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years : an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoea! disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Methods This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years. Findings Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162-593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78.4 deaths (70.1-87.1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69.6% (63.1-74.6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13.3% decrease, 11.2-15.5), childhood wasting (9.9% decrease, 9.6-10.2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6.9% decrease, 4-8-8-4). Interpretation Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors-particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution-appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. FINDINGS: In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30-30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78-1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50 million (53·40-57·62 million) and of SCI was 27·04 million (24·98-30·15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8·4% (95% UI 7·7 to 9·2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0·2% [-2·1 to 2·7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3·6% (1·8 to 5·5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3·6% [-7·4 to 4·0]). TBI caused 8·1 million (95% UI 6·0-10·4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9·5 million (6·7-12·4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions. INTERPRETATION: TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations