Pre-Diagnostic Plasma 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Levels and Risk of Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer in Women

Recent reports have shown that vitamin D status was inversely associated with the risk of various cancers. However, few studies examined the association between vitamin D levels and risk of skin cancer.We prospectively evaluated the association between baseline plasma 25(OH)D levels and the risk of incident squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) among 4,641 women from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and the NHS II with 510 incident BCC cases and 75 incident SCC cases. We used multivariate logistic regression models to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).Plasma 25(OH)D levels were positively associated with risk of BCC after adjusting for age at blood draw, season of blood draw, lab batch, hair color, burning tendency, the number of sunburns, and ultra-violet B flux of residence at blood collection. Women in the highest quartile of 25(OH)D had more than 2-fold increased risk of BCC compared with women in the lowest quartile (OR = 2.07, 95% CI = 1.52-2.80, P for trend <0.0001). We also found a significantly positive association between plasma 25(OH)D levels and SCC risk after adjusting for the same covariates (OR, highest vs. lowest quartile = 3.77, 95% CI = 1.70-8.36, P for trend= 0.0002).In this prospective study of women, plasma vitamin D levels were positively associated with non-melanoma skin cancer risk. Considering that most circulating vitamin D is due to sun exposure, the positive association between plasma vitamin D and non-melanoma skin cancer is confounded by sun exposure. Our data suggest that one-time measurement of plasma vitamin D levels may reasonably reflect long-term sun exposure and predict the risk of non-melanoma skin cancer

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods: We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings: In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0–18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5–3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5–3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57–8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97–3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01–1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7–90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2–62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3–48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7–33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8–41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8–29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4–33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6–23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6–28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4–19·0]). Interpretation: The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings The global TFR decreased from 2.72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2.66-2.79) in 2000 to 2.31 (2.17-2.46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134.5 million (131.5-137.8) in 2000 to a peak of 139.6 million (133.0-146.9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135.3 million (127.2-144.1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2.1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27.1% (95% UI 26.4-27.8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67.2 years (95% UI 66.8-67.6) in 2000 to 73.5 years (72.8-74.3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50.7 million (49.5-51.9) in 2000 to 56.5 million (53.7-59.2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9.6 million (9.1-10.3) in 2000 to 5.0 million (4.3-6.0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25.7%, from 6.2 billion (6.0-6.3) in 2000 to 7.7 billion (7.5-8.0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58.6 years (56.1-60.8) in 2000 to 63.5 years (60.8-66.1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe

Data mining cardiovascular risk factors

Nowadays, medical centers collect various data in different diseases. Investigating these data and obtaining useful results and patterns with respect to the diseases are the aims of using these data. Great amount of these data and confusions results from, are problems to reach considerable conclusions. In this paper data mining is used to overcome this problem and to gain useful relationships among risk factors in cardiovascular diseases. With respect to the spreading and the share that these diseases have in death they have great importance. The technique used in this work is classification with decision trees and the software is used, is CART. The target variable (class) is LDL (Low Density Lipoprotein) and 27 predictor variables are used for the classification. By applying data mining on data about 1800 people in city of Isfahan, Iran results show that the most important variables with regards to LDL are of the level of cholesterol, age, body mass index, APOB, triglyceride, (APOB/APOA) and smoking

The Prevalence of Toxoplasma Infection among Free-Ranging Chickens in Southern Iran Using IFA and Nested-PCR

"nBackground: As consumption of chicken meat may be as one of the sources of human infection, this study was undertaken to determine the prevalence of T. gondii in farm chickens (Gallus gallus domesti­cus) in Shiraz, southern Iran. "nMethods: Two hundred and thirty one blood samples were collected from farm chickens by a cluster ran­dom sampling method and tested for toxoplasmosis by indirect fluorescent antibody technique (IFAT). The samples of the brain, heart, and liver of the chickens were tested by a Nested PCR method. The re­sults were analyzed by SPSS software using Chi-Square test and a P value <0.05 was considered statically sig­nificant. "nResults: Out of 58 seropositive chickens, 29 (1:16 in eight, 1:32 in 14, 1:64 in five and 1:128 in two birds) and out of seronegative chickens, three were enrolled in the study. The most infected tissue was liver (27 out of 29) and the lowest was the heart (16 out of 29) (α=0.05, P=0.002). None of the seronegative chick­ens was positive in PCR method. Only 2 out of 8 cases with a titer of 1:16 (as cut off point) were negative in PCR method whereas the remained were positive. "nConclusion: Based on cultural and food habits in our area, the meat and viscera of chicken may be impor­tant sources of infection in human when consuming semi-cooked meats. Considering the high prevalence of toxoplasmosis in chickens, standards in chicken breeding, education of environmental health personnel and standardization for preparation and handling techniques are required by Health and Veterinary organizations

A New Endemic Focus of Visceral Leishmaniosis in Southeren IRAN

Introduction & Objective: Visceral leishmaniosis (VL) is endemic in some parts of Iran. Mediterranean type of disease is present in Iran where its causative agent is Leishmania infantum and dogs are the main reservoirs. Since many cases of the disease were reported from Noor-abad, in Fars provine, we aimed to carry out an epidemiological survey on VL in human and animal reservoirs (dogs) in Mahoor-Milaty district of Noor-Abad city at WestNorth of Fars province. Materials & Methods: In this cross-sectional descriptive survey, blood samples were randomly collected from all children 10 years old, 10% of the adult population and 20% of the dogs kept by owners in Mahoor-Milaty villages drawn by systematic sampling. The specimens were subjected to direct agglutination test (DAT) on serum and PCR on whole blood. The data were analyzed by standard statistical tests using SPSS software. Results: Of the 321 human samples, 234 samples belonged to children 10 years old and 87 samples were from adults. 182 (56.7%) out of 321 samples were prepared from males and 139 (43.3%) from females. Totally, 6 cases (1.86%) of human samples showed specific Leishmania antibodies with titers 1:3200 or higher by DAT. Of the 19 dog samples, 5 cases (26.3%) showed specific Leishmania antibodies with titers 1:160 or higher. Likewise, kinetoplast DNA (kDNA) of Leishmania infantum was identified in 6 cases (31.5%) of all dogs by PCR with specific primers on whole blood. None of these cases had seropositive titer. Conclusion: Results of this study show that dogs are the main sources of infection for human visceral leishmaniasis in this region and VL is endemic in Mahoor-Milaty district where the incidence rate of human VL cases has recently been increased. Besides it seems that PCR method is a good tool for primary screening of dogs' blood samples with overt or cryptic VL infectio