Bayesian inference of agent-based models: a tool for studying kidney branching morphogenesis

The adult mammalian kidney has a complex, highly-branched collecting duct epithelium that arises as a ureteric bud sidebranch from an epithelial tube known as the nephric duct. Subsequent branching of the ureteric bud to form the collecting duct tree is regulated by subcellular interactions between the epithelium and a population of mesenchymal cells that surround the tips of outgrowing branches. The mesenchymal cells produce glial cell-line derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF), that binds with RET receptors on the surface of the epithelial cells to stimulate several subcellular pathways in the epithelium. Such interactions are known to be a prerequisite for normal branching development, although competing theories exist for their role in morphogenesis. Here we introduce the first agent-based model of ex vivo kidney uretic branching. Through comparison with experimental data, we show that growth factor-regulated growth mechanisms can explain early epithelial cell branching, but only if epithelial cell division depends in a switch-like way on the local growth factor concentration; cell division occurring only if the driving growth factor level exceeds a threshold. We also show how a recently-developed method, "Approximate Approximate Bayesian Computation", can be used to infer key model parameters, and reveal the dependency between the parameters controlling a growth factor-dependent growth switch. These results are consistent with a requirement for signals controlling proliferation and chemotaxis, both of which are previously identified roles for GDNF

Implicating municipalities in addressing household food insecurity in Canada: A pan-Canadian analysis of news print media coverage

Objectives: Household food insecurity (HFI) affects approximately 13% of Canadian households and is especially prevalent among low-income households. Actions to address HFI have been occurring primarily at the local level, despite calls for greater income supports from senior governments to reduce poverty. News media may be reinforcing this trend, by emphasizing food-based solutions to HFI and the municipal level as the site where action needs to take place. The objective of this study was to examine the level and framing of print news media coverage of HFI action in Canada. Methods: Using a quantitative newspaper content analysis approach, we analyzed 547 articles gathered from 2 national and 16 local/regional Englishlanguage newspapers published between January 2007 and December 2012. Results: News coverage increased over time, and over half was produced from Ontario (33%) and British Columbia (22%) combined. Of the 374 articles that profiled a specific action, community gardens/urban agriculture was most commonly profiled (17%), followed by food banks/meal programs (13%); 70% of articles implicated governments to take action on HFI, and of these, 43% implicated municipal governments. Article tone was notably more negative when senior governments were profiled and more neutral and positive when municipal governments were profiled. Conclusion: News media reporting of this issue in Canada may be placing pressure on municipalities to engage in food-based actions to address HFI. A more systematic approach to HFI action in Canada will require more balanced media reporting that acknowledges the limitations of food-based solutions to the income-based problem of HFI

The Interplay Between Anxiety and Social Functioning in Williams Syndrome

The developmental disorder Williams syndrome (WS) has been associated with an atypical social profile of hyper-sociability and heightened social sensitivity across the developmental spectrum. In addition, previous research suggests that both children and adults with WS have a predisposition towards anxiety. The current research aimed to explore the profiles of social behaviour and anxiety across a broad age range of individuals with the disorder (n = 59, ages 6–36 years). We used insights from parental reports on two frequently used measures, the Spence Children’s Anxiety Scale (SCAS-P) and the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS). Severity of anxiety was correlated with a greater degree of social dysfunction as measured by the SRS in this group. We split the group according to high or low anxiety as measured by the SCAS-P and explored the profile of social skills for the two groups. Individuals high and low in anxiety differed in their social abilities. The results emphasise the need to address anxiety issues in this disorder and to consider how components of anxiety might relate to other features of the disorder

From early markers to neuro-developmental mechanisms of autism

A fast growing field, the study of infants at risk because of having an older sibling with autism (i.e. infant sibs) aims to identify the earliest signs of this disorder, which would allow for earlier diagnosis and intervention. More importantly, we argue, these studies offer the opportunity to validate existing neuro-developmental models of autism against experimental evidence. Although autism is mainly seen as a disorder of social interaction and communication, emerging early markers do not exclusively reflect impairments of the “social brain”. Evidence for atypical development of sensory and attentional systems highlight the need to move away from localized deficits to models suggesting brain-wide involvement in autism pathology. We discuss the implications infant sibs findings have for future work into the biology of autism and the development of interventions

Modelling thirty-day mortality in the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in an adult ICU

Publisher's copy made available with the permission of the publisher © Australian Society of AnaesthetistsVariables predicting thirty-day outcome from Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) were analysed using Cox regression structured for time-varying covariates. Over a three-year period, 1996-1998, consecutive patients with ARDS (bilateral chest X-ray opacities, PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio of <200 and an acute precipitating event) were identified using a prospective computerized data base in a university teaching hospital ICU. The cohort, 106 mechanically ventilated patients, was of mean (SD) age 63.5 (15.5) years and 37% were female. Primary lung injury occurred in 45% and 24% were postoperative. ICU-admission day APACHE II score was 25 (8); ARDS onset time from ICU admission was 1 day (median: range 0-16) and 30 day mortality was 41% (95% CI: 33%-51%). At ARDS onset, PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio was 92 (31), 81% had four-quadrant chest X-ray opacification and lung injury score was 2.75 (0.45). Average mechanical ventilator tidal volume was 10.3 ml/ predicted kg weight. Cox model mortality predictors (hazard ratio, 95% CI) were: APACHE II score, 1.15 (1.09-1.21); ARDS lag time (days), 0.72 (0.58-0.89); direct versus indirect injury, 2.89 (1.45-5.76); PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio, 0.98 (0.97-0.99); operative versus non-operative category, 0.24 (0.09-0.63). Time-varying effects were evident for PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio, operative versus non-operative category and ventilator tidal volume assessed as a categorical predictor with a cut-point of 8 ml/kg predicted weight (mean tidal volumes, 7.1 (1.9) vs 10.7 (1.6) ml/kg predicted weight). Thirty-day survival was improved for patients ventilated with lower tidal volumes. Survival predictors in ARDS were multifactorial and related to patient-injury-time interaction and level of mechanical ventilator tidal volume.J. L. Moran, P. J. Solomon, V. Fox, M. Salagaras, P. J. Williams, K. Quinlan, A. D. Berstenhttp://www.aaic.net.au/Article.asp?D=200332

Melanocortin-1 receptor, skin cancer and phenotypic characteristics (M-SKIP) project

Background: For complex diseases like cancer, pooled-analysis of individual data represents a powerful tool to investigate the joint contribution of genetic, phenotypic and environmental factors to the development of a disease. Pooled-analysis of epidemiological studies has many advantages over meta-analysis, and preliminary results may be obtained faster and with lower costs than with prospective consortia. Design and methods. Based on our experience with the study design of the Melanocortin-1 receptor (MC1R) gene, SKin cancer and Phenotypic characteristics (M-SKIP) project, we describe the most important steps in planning and conducting a pooled-analysis of genetic epidemiological studies. We then present the statistical analysis plan that we are going to apply, giving particular attention to methods of analysis recently proposed to account for between-study heterogeneity and to explore the joint contribution of genetic, phenotypic and environmental factors in the development of a disease. Within the M-SKIP project, data on 10,959 skin cancer cases and 14,785 controls from 31 international investigators were checked for quality and recoded for standardization. We first proposed to fit the aggregated data with random-effects logistic regression models. However, for the M-SKIP project, a two-stage analysis will be preferred to overcome the problem regarding the availability of different study covariates. The joint contribution of MC1R variants and phenotypic characteristics to skin cancer dev

Pathological structural conversion of α-synuclein at the mitochondria induces neuronal toxicity

Aggregation of alpha-synuclein (α-Syn) drives Parkinson’s disease (PD), although the initial stages of self-assembly and structural conversion have not been directly observed inside neurons. In this study, we tracked the intracellular conformational states of α-Syn using a single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (smFRET) biosensor, and we show here that α-Syn converts from a monomeric state into two distinct oligomeric states in neurons in a concentration-dependent and sequence-specific manner. Three-dimensional FRET-correlative light and electron microscopy (FRET-CLEM) revealed that intracellular seeding events occur preferentially on membrane surfaces, especially at mitochondrial membranes. The mitochondrial lipid cardiolipin triggers rapid oligomerization of A53T α-Syn, and cardiolipin is sequestered within aggregating lipid–protein complexes. Mitochondrial aggregates impair complex I activity and increase mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation, which accelerates the oligomerization of A53T α-Syn and causes permeabilization of mitochondrial membranes and cell death. These processes were also observed in induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)–derived neurons harboring A53T mutations from patients with PD. Our study highlights a mechanism of de novo α-Syn oligomerization at mitochondrial membranes and subsequent neuronal toxicity

Manufacturing flow line systems: a review of models and analytical results

The most important models and results of the manufacturing flow line literature are described. These include the major classes of models (asynchronous, synchronous, and continuous); the major features (blocking, processing times, failures and repairs); the major properties (conservation of flow, flow rate-idle time, reversibility, and others); and the relationships among different models. Exact and approximate methods for obtaining quantitative measures of performance are also reviewed. The exact methods are appropriate for small systems. The approximate methods, which are the only means available for large systems, are generally based on decomposition, and make use of the exact methods for small systems. Extensions are briefly discussed. Directions for future research are suggested.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant DDM-8914277