Chilean wildfires: probabilistic prediction, emergency response and public communication

The 2016/17 wildfire season in Chile was the worst on record, burning more than 600,000 hectares. Whilst wildfires are an important natural process in some areas of Chile supporting its diverse ecosystems, wildfires are also one of the biggest threats to Chile’s unique biodiversity and it’s timber and wine industries. They also pose a danger to human life and property due to the sharp wildland-urban interface that exists in many Chilean towns and cities. Wildfires are however difficult to predict due to the combination of physical (meteorology, vegetation and fuel condition), and human (population density and awareness level) factors. Most Chilean wildfires are started due to accidental ignition by humans. This accidental ignition could be minimized if an effective wildfire warning system alerted the population to the heightened danger of wildfires in certain locations and meteorological conditions. Here we demonstrate the design of a novel probabilistic wildfire prediction system. The system uses ensemble forecast meteorological data together with a longtime series of fire products derived from Earth Observation to predict not only fire occurrence, but in addition, how intense wildfires could be. The system provides wildfire risk estimation and associated uncertainty for up to 6 days in advance, and communicates it to a variety of end users. The advantage of this probabilistic wildfire warning system over deterministic systems is that it allows users to assess the confidence of a forecast and thus make more informed decisions regarding resource allocation and forest management. The approach used in this study could easily be adapted to communicate other probabilistic forecasts of natural hazards

Land Surface Processes Analysis Using Sentinel-3 OLCI and Modis Data

This communication describes the optical processing chain to use Sentinel-3 OLCI and MODIS data as part of the ESA funded Synergy project of the Scientific Exploitation of Sentinel Missions (SEOM) component of the EO Envelope programme. One of the goals of the project is to use Data Assimilation techniques to produce land surface products combining the data from Sentinels-2 and 3. Some of the derived products are the OLCI atmospherically corrected data that can be used to generate a spectral BRDF product from OLCI and MODIS, broadband albedo and different vegetation parameters. The project also implements a series of efficiency improvements to the algorithms to speed up the processing. The demonstrator product uses one year of OLCI and MODIS data (2017)

A new derivation of the Hubble constant from γ\gamma-ray attenuation using improved optical depths for the Fermi and CTA era

We present $\gamma$-ray optical-depth calculations from a recently published extragalactic background light (EBL) model built from multiwavelength galaxy data from the Hubble Space Telescope Cosmic Assembly Near-Infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (HST/CANDELS). CANDELS gathers one of the deepest and most complete observations of stellar and dust emissions in galaxies. This model resulted in a robust derivation of the evolving EBL spectral energy distribution up to $z\sim 6$, including the far-infrared peak. Therefore, the optical depths derived from this model will be useful for determining the attenuation of $\gamma$-ray photons coming from high-redshift sources, such as those detected by the Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope, and for multi-TeV photons that will be detected from nearby sources by the future Cherenkov Telescope Array. From these newly calculated optical depths, we derive the cosmic $\gamma$-ray horizon and also measure the expansion rate and matter content of the Universe including an assessment of the impact of the EBL uncertainties. We find $H_{0}=61.9$ $^{+2.9}_{-2.4}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ when fixing $\Omega_{m}=0.32$, and $H_{0}=65.6$ $^{+5.6}_{-5.0}$ km s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-1}$ and $\Omega_{m}=0.19\pm 0.07$, when exploring these two parameters simultaneously.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures, 1 tables; Accepted by MNRA

No strong dependence of Lyman continuum leakage on physical properties of star-forming galaxies at 3.1 ≲ z ≲ 3.5

We present Lyman continuum (LyC) radiation escape fraction (fesc) measurements for 183 spectroscopically confirmed star-forming galaxies in the redshift range 3.11 300 Å. For candidate LyC leakers, we find a weak negative correlation between fesc and galaxy stellar masses, no correlation between fesc and specific star-formation rates (sSFRs) and a positive correlation between fesc and EW0([O III] + Hβ). The weak/no correlations between stellar mass and sSFRs may be explained by misaligned viewing angles and/or non-coincident timescales of starburst activity and periods of high fesc. Alternatively, escaping radiation may predominantly occur in highly localised star-forming regions, or fesc measurements may be impacted by stochasticity of the intervening neutral medium, obscuring any global trends with galaxy properties. These hypotheses have important consequences for models of reionisation

The VANDELS survey: the ionizing properties of star-forming galaxies at 3≤z≤53 \leq z \leq 5 using deep rest-frame ultraviolet spectroscopy

To better understand the ionizing properties of galaxies in the EoR, we investigate deep, rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) spectra of $\simeq 500$ star-forming galaxies at $3 \leq z \leq 5$ selected from the public ESO-VANDELS spectroscopic survey. The absolute ionizing photon escape fraction ($f_{\rm esc}^{\rm abs}$) is derived by combining absorption line measurements with estimates of the UV attenuation. The ionizing production efficiency ($\xi_{ion}$) is calculated by fitting the far-UV (FUV) stellar continuum of the VANDELS galaxies. We find that the $f_{\rm esc}^{\rm abs}$ and $\xi_{ion}$ parameters increase towards low-mass, blue UV-continuum slopes and strong Ly$\alpha$ emitting galaxies, and both are just slightly higher-than-average for the UV-faintest galaxies in the sample. Potential Lyman Continuum Emitters (LCEs) and selected Lyman Alpha Emitters (LAEs) show systematically higher $\xi_{ion}$ ($\log \xi_{ion}$ (Hz\erg) $\approx 25.38, 25.41$) than non-LCEs and non-LAEs ($\log \xi_{ion}$ (Hz\erg) $\approx 25.18, 25.14$) at similar UV magnitudes. This indicates very young underlying stellar populations ($\approx 10~{\rm Myr}$) at relatively low metallicities ($\approx 0.2~{\rm Z_{\odot}}$). The FUV non-ionizing spectra of potential LCEs is characterized by very blue UV slopes ($\leq -2$), enhanced Ly$\alpha$ emission ($\leq -25$A), strong UV nebular lines (e.g., high CIV1550/CIII]1908 $\geq 0.75$ ratios), and weak absorption lines ($\leq 1$A). The latter suggests the existence of low gas-column-density channels in the interstellar medium which enables the escape of ionizing photons. By comparing our VANDELS results against other surveys in the literature, our findings imply that the ionizing budget in the EoR was likely dominated by UV-faint, low-mass and dustless galaxies.Comment: 25 pages, 18 figures, 2 tables; submitted to MNRA

The ionizing photon production efficiency of bright z∼\sim2-5 galaxies

We investigate the production efficiency of ionizing photons ($\xi_{ion}^*$) of 1174 galaxies with secure redshift at z=2-5 from the VANDELS survey to determine the relation between ionizing emission and physical properties of bright and massive sources. We constrain $\xi_{ion}^*$ and galaxy physical parameters by means of spectro-photometric fits performed with the BEAGLE code. The analysis exploits the multi-band photometry in the VANDELS fields, and the measurement of UV rest-frame emission lines (CIII]$\lambda 1909$, HeII$\lambda 1640$, OIII]$\lambda 1666$) from deep VIMOS spectra. We find no clear evolution of $\xi_{ion}^*$ with redshift within the probed range. The ionizing efficiency slightly increases at fainter $M_{UV}$, and bluer UV slopes, but these trends are less evident when restricting the analysis to a complete subsample at log(M$_{star}$/M$_{\odot}$)$>$9.5. We find a significant trend of increasing $\xi_{ion}^*$ with increasing EW(Ly$\alpha$), with an average log($\xi_{ion}^*$/Hz erg$^{-1}$)$>$25 at EW$>$50\AA, and a higher ionizing efficiency for high-EW CIII]$\lambda 1909$ and OIII]$\lambda 1666$ emitters. The most significant correlations are found with respect to stellar mass, specific star-formation rate (sSFR) and SFR surface density ($\Sigma_{SFR}$). The relation between $\xi_{ion}^*$ and sSFR shows a monotonic increase from log($\xi_{ion}^*$/Hz erg$^{-1}$) $\sim$24.5 at log(sSFR)$\sim$-9.5$yr^{-1}$ to $\sim$25.5 at log(sSFR)$\sim$-7.5$yr^{-1}$, a low scatter and little dependence on mass. The objects above the main-sequence of star-formation consistently have higher-than-average $\xi_{ion}^*$. A clear increase of $\xi_{ion}^*$ with $\Sigma_{SFR}$ is also found, with log($\xi_{ion}^*$/Hz erg$^{-1}$)$>$25 for objects at $\Sigma_{SFR}>$10 M$_{\odot}/yr/kpc^2$.(Abridged)Comment: 11 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in A&

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

The VANDELS ESO public spectroscopic survey : Final Data Release of 2087 spectra and spectroscopic measurements

© ESO 2021. The original publication is available at https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202040059VANDELS is an ESO Public Spectroscopic Survey designed to build a sample of high signal to noise, medium resolution spectra of galaxies at redshift between 1 and 6.5. Here we present the final Public Data Release of the VANDELS Survey, comprising 2087 redshift measurements. We give a detailed description of sample selection, observations and data reduction procedures. The final catalogue reaches a target selection completeness of 40% at iAB = 25. The high Signal to Noise ratio of the spectra (above 7 in 80% of the spectra) and the dispersion of 2.5{\AA} allowed us to measure redshifts with high precision, the redshift measurement success rate reaching almost 100%. Together with the redshift catalogue and the reduced spectra, we also provide optical mid-IR photometry and physical parameters derived through SED fitting. The observed galaxy sample comprises both passive and star forming galaxies covering a stellar mass range 8.3<Log(M*/Msolar)Peer reviewe