Exploring Driver Responses to Unexpected and Expected Events Using Probabilistic Topic Models

Drivers’ expectations influence their responses to events in complex ways. In particular, covert and sustained hazards, like crosswinds, might require complex vehicle control adaptations. We investigated differences between drivers’ lateral responses in unexpected and expected (repeated) crosswind events using probabilistic topic modeling. First, each driver’s event-based steering wheel movements (angle and rate, 5 Hz) were transformed into symbolic words. Then, probabilistic topic modeling was used to discover patterns in the steering wheel movement data across the event conditions. Results indicate that drivers may make fewer abrupt steering wheel movements when they encounter unexpected crosswinds. On the contrary, drivers are more likely to make continuous faster steering corrections to compensate crosswinds when they are expected. The topic models also classify unexpected and expected crosswind events better than traditional models that use single aggregated values across events (maximum steering wheel angle and rate). These preliminary insights show an advantage for granular, time-series based analysis of driving data, and suggest a viable machinelearning based technique to conduct such investigations

Genomic Relationships, Novel Loci, and Pleiotropic Mechanisms across Eight Psychiatric Disorders

Genetic influences on psychiatric disorders transcend diagnostic boundaries, suggesting substantial pleiotropy of contributing loci. However, the nature and mechanisms of these pleiotropic effects remain unclear. We performed analyses of 232,964 cases and 494,162 controls from genome-wide studies of anorexia nervosa, attention-deficit/hyper-activity disorder, autism spectrum disorder, bipolar disorder, major depression, obsessive-compulsive disorder, schizophrenia, and Tourette syndrome. Genetic correlation analyses revealed a meaningful structure within the eight disorders, identifying three groups of inter-related disorders. Meta-analysis across these eight disorders detected 109 loci associated with at least two psychiatric disorders, including 23 loci with pleiotropic effects on four or more disorders and 11 loci with antagonistic effects on multiple disorders. The pleiotropic loci are located within genes that show heightened expression in the brain throughout the lifespan, beginning prenatally in the second trimester, and play prominent roles in neurodevelopmental processes. These findings have important implications for psychiatric nosology, drug development, and risk prediction.Peer reviewe

Analysis of shared heritability in common disorders of the brain

ience, this issue p. eaap8757 Structured Abstract INTRODUCTION Brain disorders may exhibit shared symptoms and substantial epidemiological comorbidity, inciting debate about their etiologic overlap. However, detailed study of phenotypes with different ages of onset, severity, and presentation poses a considerable challenge. Recently developed heritability methods allow us to accurately measure correlation of genome-wide common variant risk between two phenotypes from pools of different individuals and assess how connected they, or at least their genetic risks, are on the genomic level. We used genome-wide association data for 265,218 patients and 784,643 control participants, as well as 17 phenotypes from a total of 1,191,588 individuals, to quantify the degree of overlap for genetic risk factors of 25 common brain disorders. RATIONALE Over the past century, the classification of brain disorders has evolved to reflect the medical and scientific communities' assessments of the presumed root causes of clinical phenomena such as behavioral change, loss of motor function, or alterations of consciousness. Directly observable phenomena (such as the presence of emboli, protein tangles, or unusual electrical activity patterns) generally define and separate neurological disorders from psychiatric disorders. Understanding the genetic underpinnings and categorical distinctions for brain disorders and related phenotypes may inform the search for their biological mechanisms. RESULTS Common variant risk for psychiatric disorders was shown to correlate significantly, especially among attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder (MDD), and schizophrenia. By contrast, neurological disorders appear more distinct from one another and from the psychiatric disorders, except for migraine, which was significantly correlated to ADHD, MDD, and Tourette syndrome. We demonstrate that, in the general population, the personality trait neuroticism is significantly correlated with almost every psychiatric disorder and migraine. We also identify significant genetic sharing between disorders and early life cognitive measures (e.g., years of education and college attainment) in the general population, demonstrating positive correlation with several psychiatric disorders (e.g., anorexia nervosa and bipolar disorder) and negative correlation with several neurological phenotypes (e.g., Alzheimer's disease and ischemic stroke), even though the latter are considered to result from specific processes that occur later in life. Extensive simulations were also performed to inform how statistical power, diagnostic misclassification, and phenotypic heterogeneity influence genetic correlations. CONCLUSION The high degree of genetic correlation among many of the psychiatric disorders adds further evidence that their current clinical boundaries do not reflect distinct underlying pathogenic processes, at least on the genetic level. This suggests a deeply interconnected nature for psychiatric disorders, in contrast to neurological disorders, and underscores the need to refine psychiatric diagnostics. Genetically informed analyses may provide important "scaffolding" to support such restructuring of psychiatric nosology, which likely requires incorporating many levels of information. By contrast, we find limited evidence for widespread common genetic risk sharing among neurological disorders or across neurological and psychiatric disorders. We show that both psychiatric and neurological disorders have robust correlations with cognitive and personality measures. Further study is needed to evaluate whether overlapping genetic contributions to psychiatric pathology may influence treatment choices. Ultimately, such developments may pave the way toward reduced heterogeneity and improved diagnosis and treatment of psychiatric disorders

Driving Performance During Concurrent Cell-Phone Use: Are Drivers Aware Of Their Performance Decrements?

Prior research has documented the manner in which a variety of driving performance measures are impacted by concurrent cell-phone use as well as the influence of age and gender of the driver. This current study examined the extent to which different driver groups are aware of their associated performance decrements. Subjects\u27 confidence in dealing with distractors while driving and their ratings of task performance and demand were compared with their actual driving performance in the presence of a cell-phone task. While high confidence ratings appeared to be predictive of better driving performance for male drivers (as confidence increased, the size of the distraction effects decreased), this relationship did not hold for females; in fact, for older females, as confidence increased, performance decreased. Additionally, when drivers were matched in terms of confidence level, brake responses of older females were slowed to a much greater extent (0.38s) than were brake responses of any other group (0.10s for younger males and females and 0.07s for older males). Finally, females also rated the driving task as less demanding than males, even though their performance was more greatly affected by distraction. These results suggest that many drivers may not be aware of their decreased performance while using cell-phones and that it may be particularly important to target educational campaigns on driver distraction towards female drivers for whom there tended to be a greater discrepancy between driver perceptions and actual performance. © 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Constructing socialism at the grassroots The transformation of East Germany, 1945-1965

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre-DSC:DXN026434 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Calibration of skill and judgment in driving: Development of a conceptual framework and the implications for road safety

AbstractHumans often make inflated or erroneous estimates of their own ability or performance. Such errors in calibration can be due to incomplete processing, neglect of available information or due to improper weighing or integration of the information and can impact our decision-making, risk tolerance, and behaviors. In the driving context, these outcomes can have important implications for safety. The current paper discusses the notion of calibration in the context of self-appraisals and self-competence as well as in models of self-regulation in driving. We further develop a conceptual framework for calibration in the driving context borrowing from earlier models of momentary demand regulation, information processing, and lens models for information selection and utilization. Finally, using the model we describe the implications for calibration (or, more specifically, errors in calibration) for our understanding of driver distraction, in-vehicle automation and autonomous vehicles, and the training of novice and inexperienced drivers