Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990�2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors�the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25 over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8 (95 CI 56·6�58·8) of global deaths and 41·2 (39·8�42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million 192·7 million to 231·1 million global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million 134·2 million to 163·1 million), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million 125·1 million to 163·5 million), high BMI (120·1 million 83·8 million to 158·4 million), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million 103·9 million to 123·4 million), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million 90·8 million to 115·1 million), high total cholesterol (88·7 million 74·6 million to 105·7 million), household air pollution (85·6 million 66·7 million to 106·1 million), alcohol use (85·0 million 77·2 million to 93·0 million), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million 49·3 million to 127·5 million). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licens

Density-based clustering methods for unsupervised separation of partial discharge sources

The recognition of partial discharge (PD) sources is an important task of the monitoring and diagnostics of high-voltage components. Nowadays, digital PD measuring systems have the capability of extracting features and form scatter plots with such data sets. Part of an unsupervised PD analysis system is to discover clusters within the data sets and link them to particular PD sources. Due to the nature of PD data sets, clusters may appear very close to each other or even merged hindering the separation of sources. Clustering methods based on spatial density such as the density peak clustering (DPC) method and DBSCAN are suitable approaches to discover clusters within PD data sets. However, their accuracy can be reduced due to the proximity among clusters. In this paper, a new method is presented to improve the accuracy of the DPC method. Our method proposes to partition the data set and later pass the resulting subsets to the DPC method. The partitioning is based on the spatial density of data computed by a smoothed density method (SD). SD has the advantage of being fast and not requiring high computational power. As a final step, a routine is applied to group the sub clusters as per the DPC method having a threshold for the data contour distance as a criterion. This method proved higher accuracy to discover clusters in actual PD data sets. However, the threshold for the data contour distance still needs further research.DC systems, Energy conversion & Storag

Partial Discharge Detection in High-Voltage Gas Insulated Switchgear Using Fiber Optic Based Acoustic Sensors

Partial discharges (PD) are small current pulses that can occur within the insulation of medium and high voltage (HV) electrical assets such as cable accessories, transformers and switchgear. In GIS units, PD's can occur near the high-voltage conductor or at other locations commonly due to metallic particles from the erosion of the switchgear contacts or left behind after maintenance. For that reason, GIS units are usually equipped with multiple embedded UHF sensors in selected compartments that can detect PD in their vicinity. Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.ESP LA

Principles of Charge Estimation Methods Using High-Frequency Current Transformer Sensors in Partial Discharge Measurements

This paper describes a simplified model and a generic model of high-frequency current transformer (HFCT) sensors. By analyzing the models, a universal charge estimation method based on the double time integral of the measured voltage is inferred. The method is demonstrated to be valid irrespective of HFCT sensor, assuming that its transfer function can be modelled as a combination of real zeros and poles. This paper describes the mathematical foundation of the method and its particularities when applied to measure nanosecond current pulses. In practice, the applicability of the method is subjected to the characteristics and frequency response of the sensor and the current pulse duration. Therefore, a proposal to use the double time integral or the simple time integral of the measured voltage is described depending upon the sensor response. The procedures used to obtain the respective calibration constants based on the frequency response of the HFCT sensors are explained. Two examples, one using a HFCT sensor with a broadband flat frequency response and another using a HFCT sensor with a non-flat frequency response, are presented

Recognition of partial discharge signals in impaired datasets using cumulative energy signatures

The problem of impaired data sets refers to data sets containing a vast majority of unwanted signals than signals of interest. With increased interest in partial discharge (PD) testing with arbitrary waveforms and transients, these kind of data sets are becoming more and more common. Traditional clustering techniques cannot be applied due to big differences in spatial densities of the existing clusters in the data set. This paper contributes a simple yet efficient technique to recognize PD signals from noise and other disturbances. The signal recognition features are based on two specific areas extracted from the cumulative energy signal (CE) of each recorded waveform. These areas weigh up the extent to which the recorded signals have a pulse-like shape. A third feature, defined as a shape factor, extracts additional metrics from the CE signal that serves the purpose of accounting for the factors affecting the computation of the proposed recognition features and threshold for data size reduction. These three CE-based features are used to create a graph from which a real PD can be spotted in large impaired data sets. The performance of this technique is tested using PD measurements from superimposed impulse tests on a 150 kV cable system.ESP LABDC systems, Energy conversion & Storag

A magnetic loop antenna for partial discharge measurements on GIS

This paper presents a magnetic loop antenna for partial discharge (PD) measurements on gas insulated systems (GIS). The antenna is based on a single shielded loop inserted in the dielectric window of a GIS that measures the PD currents propagating in TEM mode. The paper describes the relevant parameters of the antenna and the antenna performance in combination with a transimpedance amplifier. A calibration method for charge estimation is presented along with laboratory experiments with free moving particle, surface and corona discharges in SF6 test cells. The results show the suitability of the magnetic antenna for PD detection and the charge evaluation performance. Under laboratory conditions, the antenna sensitivity is in the order of 1 pC at a few meters from the PD source.DC systems, Energy conversion & Storag

Partial discharge detection on power equipment using a magneto-resistive sensor

Partial discharges (PD) detection is an effective diagnostic method to assess the insulation condition of electrical power equipment in the high-voltage laboratory or field tests. This paper presents a non-contacting PD detection method for power equipment. The method is based on an extra high-sensitivity adapted giant magneto-resistive (xMR) sensor that measures the magnetic field produced by the PD currents. Firstly, this paper describes the sensor’s relevant principle and signal conditioning circuit. Next, the sensor’s typical performance, including the frequency response and time-domain response to calibrator PD pulses, is measured and compared with our previous work. The results indicate that the xMR system’s bandwidth is improved to the MHz range. Finally, PD experiments are carried out and compared with measurements using a commercially available high-frequency current transformer (HFCT), which allows for verification of the coherence of the results concerning the PD pulses and phase-resolved PD (PRPD) patterns. The results show that PD in a cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cable or a gas-insulated system (GIS) with artificial discharging defects is successfully measured, demonstrating the sensitivity and performance of the xMR system for PD detection

Principles of Charge Estimation Methods Using High-Frequency Current Transformer Sensors in Partial Discharge Measurements (vol 20, 2520, 2020): Rodrigo-mor et al. Principles of charge estimation methods using high-frequency current transformer sensors in partial discharge measurements. sensors 2020, 20, 2520

The authors wish to make the following erratum to this paper [1]: the summation symbol in the Equations (11) and (12) should be a product symbol. The corrected Equations (11) and (12) appear below: The authors apologize for any inconvenience caused and state that the scientific conclusions are unaffected. The original article has been updated.DC systems, Energy conversion & StorageESP LA