Sovereign bonds and flight to safety: Implications of the COVID-19 crisis for sovereign debt markets in the G-7 and E-7 economies

This study investigates the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for sovereign debt in the G-7 and E-7 economies and explores the notion of sovereign bonds as a safe haven. Using a set of panel regression and dynamic connectedness TVP-VAR approaches, our results reveal that the impact of COVID-19 global case numbers on sovereign bonds has been contingent on the level of the country's financial and economic development. More precisely, our findings suggest that G-7 countries, where economic development is typically higher, have seen a negative effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yield: sovereign 10-year bond yields declined as the number of COVID-19 global confirmed cases increased in G-7 countries. However, in E-7 countries, where economic growth and development are typically lower, sovereign bond yields responded positively to the initial increase in COVID-19 global confirmed case numbers, but this positive effect is not statistically significant. We also find that the G-7 and E-7 economies have a strong time-varying connectedness in relation to their bond markets and this effect is more pronounced in G-7 economies. Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility is likely to be the strongest predictor of total connectedness. Concomitantly, we shed new light on the predictive power of the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths, and the Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker on the interdependence of these sovereign bond markets. Overall, this paper highlights the heterogeneous effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yields in G-7 and E-7 countries and the notion that the developed economies, with their developed sovereign bond markets, are still seen as a safe haven during times of crisis

Seasonal variation of phytoplankton in My Thanh River, Mekong delta, Vietnam

A study on the seasonal variation of phytoplankton composition was conducted at the upper, middle, and lower parts of the My Thanh River, which supplies an important source of water for aquaculture. Qualitative and quantitative samples of phytoplankton were collected monthly at both high and low tide. The results showed that a total of 171 phytoplankton (algae) species were recorded, belonging to 59 genera and 5 phyla. Diatoms were the most abundant group with the highest species number, followed by green algae. The other phyla possessed a lower number of species. The species composition was more diverse in the rainy season and at high tide at most of the sampling sites. The mean density of algae varied from 30,900-43,521 ind.L^-1^. The density of diatoms was higher in the middle and lower parts. At the same time, euglenoids displayed the highest density in the upper part, showing a difference in the dominant algae group under the influence of salinity. Salinity was found to be significantly positively correlated (p<0.01) with diatoms, whereas it was negatively correlated (p<0.05) with blue-green algae and euglenoids. The algae composition was quite diverse, with the H' index ranging from 2.0-3.3, showing the water quality was slightly to moderately polluted

Dosimetric and radiobiological comparison between conventional and hypofractionated breast treatment plans using the Halcyon system

PurposeThe objective of this research is to compare the efficacy of conventional and hypofractionated radiotherapy treatment plans for breast cancer patients, with a specific focus on the unique features of the Halcyon system.Methods and materialsThe study collected and analyzed dose volume histogram (DVH) data for two groups of treatment plans implemented using the Halcyon system. The first group consisted of 19 patients who received conventional fractionated (CF) treatment with a total dose of 50 Gy in 25 fractions, while the second group comprised 9 patients who received hypofractionated (HF) treatment with a total dose of 42.56 Gy in 16 fractions. The DVH data was used to calculate various parameters, including tumor control probability (TCP), normal tissue complication probability (NTCP), and equivalent uniform dose (EUD), using radiobiological models.ResultsThe results indicated that the CF plan resulted in higher TCP but lower NTCP for the lungs compared to the HF plan. The EUD for the HF plan was approximately 49 Gy (114% of its total dose) while that for the CF plan was around 53 Gy (107% of its total dose).ConclusionsThe analysis suggests that while the CF plan is better at controlling tumors, it is not as effective as the HF plan in minimizing side effects. Additionally, it is suggested that there may be an optimal configuration for the HF plan that can provide the same or higher EUD than the CF plan

Kinetics of Plasma Viremia and Soluble Nonstructural Protein 1 Concentrations in Dengue: Differential Effects According to Serotype and Immune Status

We describe the magnitude and kinetics of plasma viremia and nonstructural protein 1 (sNS1) levels in sequential samples from 167 children with acute dengue, enrolled early in a community study in Vietnam. All children recovered fully, and only 5 required hospitalization. Among those with dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1), plasma viremia was significantly greater in primary (49) than secondary (44) infections and took longer to resolve. In primary DENV-2 and 3 infections, viremia was significantly lower than among primary DENV-1 infections. Concentrations of sNS1 were significantly higher for DENV-1 than for DENV-2 after adjusting for viremia, with marked differences in the kinetic profiles between primary and secondary infections. Secondary infection and higher viremia were independent predictors of more severe thrombocytopenia, and higher viremia was associated with a small increase in hemoconcentration. Our findings identify clear serotype and immune-status related effects on the dynamics of dengue viremia and sNS1 responses, together with associations with important clinical parameters

New technologies to improve healthcare in low- and middle-income countries: Global Grand Challenges satellite event, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Ho Chi Minh City, 17th-18th September 2019

We report the outputs of a satellite event in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, organized as part of the "2 nd Global Grand Challenges of Engineering Summit". The event considered challenges and potential solutions for improving low- and middle-income country (LMIC) healthcare systems, with particular reference to critical care. Participants from key regional and local stakeholders in healthcare and engineering discussed how new advances in technology, especially in the field of Artificial Intelligence, could be of potential benefit. This article summarizes the perspectives and conclusions of a group of key stakeholders from LMICs across South and South East Asia

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Safety and efficacy of fluoxetine on functional outcome after acute stroke (AFFINITY): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background Trials of fluoxetine for recovery after stroke report conflicting results. The Assessment oF FluoxetINe In sTroke recoverY (AFFINITY) trial aimed to show if daily oral fluoxetine for 6 months after stroke improves functional outcome in an ethnically diverse population. Methods AFFINITY was a randomised, parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial done in 43 hospital stroke units in Australia (n=29), New Zealand (four), and Vietnam (ten). Eligible patients were adults (aged ≥18 years) with a clinical diagnosis of acute stroke in the previous 2–15 days, brain imaging consistent with ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke, and a persisting neurological deficit that produced a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 1 or more. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 via a web-based system using a minimisation algorithm to once daily, oral fluoxetine 20 mg capsules or matching placebo for 6 months. Patients, carers, investigators, and outcome assessors were masked to the treatment allocation. The primary outcome was functional status, measured by the mRS, at 6 months. The primary analysis was an ordinal logistic regression of the mRS at 6 months, adjusted for minimisation variables. Primary and safety analyses were done according to the patient's treatment allocation. The trial is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12611000774921. Findings Between Jan 11, 2013, and June 30, 2019, 1280 patients were recruited in Australia (n=532), New Zealand (n=42), and Vietnam (n=706), of whom 642 were randomly assigned to fluoxetine and 638 were randomly assigned to placebo. Mean duration of trial treatment was 167 days (SD 48·1). At 6 months, mRS data were available in 624 (97%) patients in the fluoxetine group and 632 (99%) in the placebo group. The distribution of mRS categories was similar in the fluoxetine and placebo groups (adjusted common odds ratio 0·94, 95% CI 0·76–1·15; p=0·53). Compared with patients in the placebo group, patients in the fluoxetine group had more falls (20 [3%] vs seven [1%]; p=0·018), bone fractures (19 [3%] vs six [1%]; p=0·014), and epileptic seizures (ten [2%] vs two [<1%]; p=0·038) at 6 months. Interpretation Oral fluoxetine 20 mg daily for 6 months after acute stroke did not improve functional outcome and increased the risk of falls, bone fractures, and epileptic seizures. These results do not support the use of fluoxetine to improve functional outcome after stroke

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead