Hazards and disasters in the geological and geomorphological record: a key to understanding past and future hazards and disasters

Hazards and disasters have occurred throughout Earth's History and thus the geological record is an important resource for understanding future hazards and disasters. The Earth Science Group (ESG) of the Consortium of European Taxonomic Facilities (CETAF) carried out a "Hazard and Disaster Event Survey" to identify Earth Science collections in European museums that represent hazards and disasters throughout the geological record, and recent times. The aim is to use the collections within the survey as an educational and research resource that promotes the importance of museum collections for understanding past and future hazard and disaster events. The survey pinpointed a wide variety of hazards (e.g. earthquakes, volcanism, floods, impact events, etc.), representing a vast time span in Earth's history (Proterozoic to Holocene), that are documented in the collections of the participating museums. Each hazard and disaster event has been described in terms of how they are preserved (e.g. fossil record or rock record), spatial scale, impact on life, and geological age. Here we showcase seven examples in detail which include well-known and less-known events from the survey that have contributed to our understanding of hazard and disaster processes and their impact on life. Also we present general conclusions and lessons learnt from the "Hazard and Disaster Event Survey"

Late Neogene history of the laurel tree (Laurus L., Lauraceae) based on phylogeographical analyses of Mediterranean and Macaronesian populations

Aim The post-glacial range dynamics of many European plant species have been widely investigated, but information rapidly diminishes as one moves further back in time. Here we infer the historical range shifts of Laurus, a paradigmatic tree of the Tethyan flora that has covered southern Eurasia since the Oligo-Miocene, by means of phylogenetic and phylogeographical analyses. Location Mediterranean Basin, Black Sea and Macaronesian archipelagos (Azores, Madeira, Canary Islands). Methods We analysed plastid DNA (cpDNA) sequence (trnK–matK, trnD–trnT) variation in 57 populations of Laurus and three Lauraceae genera. Phylogenetic methods (maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference) and statistical parsimony networks were used to reconstruct relationships among haplotypes. These results were contrasted with the fossil record and bioclimatic niche-based model predictions of past distributions to infer the migration routes and location of refugia. Results The phylogenetic tree revealed monophyly for Laurus. Overall sequence variability was low within Laurus, but six different haplotypes were distinguished and a single network retrieved, portraying three lineages primarily related to geography. A strongly divergent eastern lineage occupied Turkey and the Near East, a second clade was located in the Aegean region and, lastly, a western clade grouped all Macaronesian and central and western Mediterranean populations. A close relationship was observed between the Macaronesian populations of L. azorica and the western populations of L. nobilis. Main conclusions The phylogeographical structure of Laurus preserves the imprints of an ancient contraction and break-up of the range that resulted in the evolution of separate cpDNA lineages in its western- and easternmost extremes. Intense range dynamics in the western Mediterranean and multiple glacial refugia contributed to the generation and long-term conservation of this phylogeographical pattern, as shown by the fit between the haplotype ranges and past suitable areas inferred from bioclimatic models. Finally, our results challenge the taxonomic separation of Laurus into two distinct species

Inferring Species Networks from Gene Trees in High-Polyploid North American and Hawaiian Violets (Viola, Violaceae)

The phylogenies of allopolyploids take the shape of networks and cannot be adequately represented as bifurcating trees. Especially for high polyploids (i.e., organisms with more than six sets of nuclear chromosomes), the signatures of gene homoeolog loss, deep coalescence, and polyploidy may become confounded, with the result that gene trees may be congruent with more than one species network. Herein, we obtained the most parsimonious species network by objective comparison of competing scenarios involving polyploidization and homoeolog loss in a high-polyploid lineage of violets (Viola, Violaceae) mostly or entirely restricted to North America, Central America, or Hawaii. We amplified homoeologs of the low-copy nuclear gene, glucose-6-phosphate isomerase (GPI), by single-molecule polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and the chloroplast trnL-F region by conventional PCR for 51 species and subspecies. Topological incongruence among GPI homoeolog subclades, owing to deep coalescence and two instances of putative loss (or lack of detection) of homoeologs, were reconciled by applying the maximum tree topology for each subclade. The most parsimonious species network and the fossil-based calibration of the homoeolog tree favored monophyly of the high polyploids, which has resulted from allodecaploidization 9–14 Ma, involving sympatric ancestors from the extant Viola sections Chamaemelanium (diploid), Plagiostigma (paleotetraploid), and Viola (paleotetraploid). Although two of the high-polyploid lineages (Boreali-Americanae, Pedatae) remained decaploid, recurrent polyploidization with tetraploids of section Plagiostigma within the last 5 Ma has resulted in two 14-ploid lineages (Mexicanae, Nosphinium) and one 18-ploid lineage (Langsdorffianae). This implies a more complex phylogenetic and biogeographic origin of the Hawaiian violets (Nosphinium) than that previously inferred from rDNA data and illustrates the necessity of considering polyploidy in phylogenetic and biogeographic reconstruction

Distal volcanic impacts on peatlands: palaeoecological evidence from Alaska

Despite the fact that volcanic ash (tephra) layers are found preserved in peat deposits around the world, comparatively little research has investigated the impacts of distal volcanic emissions on peatlands. This study investigates the impacts of several late-Holocene volcanic eruptions on five peatlands in southern Alaska using a palaeoecological approach. Testate amoebae analysis, peat humification analysis and a basic analysis of plant macrofossil components were applied across 11 tephra layers. Changes in macrofossil and testate amoebae assemblages occur across several of the tephra layers. The humification results were considered unreliable because of a methodological problem, a finding which may have implications for other studies using this technique. Redundancy analyses on testate amoebae data show statistically significant changes associated with two tephras. The most likely causes of the impacts are volcanic gases, acidic precipitation or tephra-derived leachates. The finding that some tephras are associated with impacts whereas others are not may relate to the season of the eruption or meteorological conditions at the time of ash fall. These results suggest the sensitivity of peatlands and peatland microbial communities to distal volcanic products and imply that changes in key palaeoclimatic proxies may be caused by a mechanism independent of climate change. Implications of the results for peat-based palaeoclimatic studies are discussed, as are possible directions for future research

Effect of SGLT2 inhibitors on stroke and atrial fibrillation in diabetic kidney disease: Results from the CREDENCE trial and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Chronic kidney disease with reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate or elevated albuminuria increases risk for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke. This study assessed the effects of sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) on stroke and atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF/AFL) from CREDENCE (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation) and a meta-Analysis of large cardiovascular outcome trials (CVOTs) of SGLT2i in type 2 diabetes mellitus. METHODS: CREDENCE randomized 4401 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease to canagliflozin or placebo. Post hoc, we estimated effects on fatal or nonfatal stroke, stroke subtypes, and intermediate markers of stroke risk including AF/AFL. Stroke and AF/AFL data from 3 other completed large CVOTs and CREDENCE were pooled using random-effects meta-Analysis. RESULTS: In CREDENCE, 142 participants experienced a stroke during follow-up (10.9/1000 patient-years with canagliflozin, 14.2/1000 patient-years with placebo; hazard ratio [HR], 0.77 [95% CI, 0.55-1.08]). Effects by stroke subtypes were: ischemic (HR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.61-1.28]; n=111), hemorrhagic (HR, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.19-1.32]; n=18), and undetermined (HR, 0.54 [95% CI, 0.20-1.46]; n=17). There was no clear effect on AF/AFL (HR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.53-1.10]; n=115). The overall effects in the 4 CVOTs combined were: Total stroke (HRpooled, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.82-1.12]), ischemic stroke (HRpooled, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.89-1.14]), hemorrhagic stroke (HRpooled, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.30-0.83]), undetermined stroke (HRpooled, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.49-1.51]), and AF/AFL (HRpooled, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.71-0.93]). There was evidence that SGLT2i effects on total stroke varied by baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (P=0.01), with protection in the lowest estimated glomerular filtration rate (45 mL/min/1.73 m2]) subgroup (HRpooled, 0.50 [95% CI, 0.31-0.79]). CONCLUSIONS: Although we found no clear effect of SGLT2i on total stroke in CREDENCE or across trials combined, there was some evidence of benefit in preventing hemorrhagic stroke and AF/AFL, as well as total stroke for those with lowest estimated glomerular filtration rate. Future research should focus on confirming these data and exploring potential mechanisms

Canagliflozin and Renal Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes and Nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to 300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m 2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P<0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P<0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years

Canagliflozin and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes and nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to &lt;90 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and albuminuria (ratio of albumin [mg] to creatinine [g], &gt;300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of &lt;15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P&lt;0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P&lt;0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years