A Dimension-Adaptive Multi-Index Monte Carlo Method Applied to a Model of a Heat Exchanger

We present an adaptive version of the Multi-Index Monte Carlo method, introduced by Haji-Ali, Nobile and Tempone (2016), for simulating PDEs with coefficients that are random fields. A classical technique for sampling from these random fields is the Karhunen-Lo\`eve expansion. Our adaptive algorithm is based on the adaptive algorithm used in sparse grid cubature as introduced by Gerstner and Griebel (2003), and automatically chooses the number of terms needed in this expansion, as well as the required spatial discretizations of the PDE model. We apply the method to a simplified model of a heat exchanger with random insulator material, where the stochastic characteristics are modeled as a lognormal random field, and we show consistent computational savings

BDMC33, A Curcumin Derivative Suppresses Inflammatory Responses in Macrophage-Like Cellular System: Role of Inhibition in NF-κB and MAPK Signaling Pathways

Our preliminary screening has shown that curcumin derivative BDMC33 [2,6-bis(2,5-dimethoxybenzylidene)cyclohexanone] exerted promising nitric oxide inhibitory activity in activated macrophages. However, the molecular basis and mechanism for its pharmacological action is yet to be elucidated. The aim of this study was to investigate the anti-inflammatory properties of BDMC33 and elucidate its underlying mechanism action in macrophage cells. Our current study demonstrated that BDMC33 inhibits the secretion of major pro-inflammatory mediators in stimulated macrophages, and includes NO, TNF-α and IL-1β through interference in both nuclear factor kappaB (NF-κB) and mitogen activator protein kinase (MAPK) signaling cascade in IFN-γ/LPS-stimulated macrophages. Moreover, BDMC33 also interrupted LPS signaling through inhibiting the surface expression of CD-14 accessory molecules. In addition, the inhibitory action of BDMC33 not only restricted the macrophages cell (RAW264.7), but also inhibited the secretion of NO and TNF-α in IFN-γ/LPS-challenged microglial cells (BV-2). The experimental data suggests the inflammatory action of BDMC33 on activated macrophage-like cellular systems, which could be used as a future therapeutic agent in the management of chronic inflammatory diseases

The prevalence of HBV infection in the cohort of IDPs of war against terrorism in Malakand Division of Northern Pakistan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hepatitis B is an important public health problem in the Pakistani population and is the major cause of chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis, fibrosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. High prevalence of HBV infections has been observed especially in areas of low economic status. In spite of effective immunization programs, no significant change has been observed in the epidemiology of HBV in the rural areas of Pakistan (~67.5% of the total population) mainly due to lack of interest from government authorities and poor hygienic measures. The current study was aimed at estimating the prevalence and risk factors associated with HBV infection within internally displaced persons (IDPs) due to war against terrorism in the Malakand Division of Northern Pakistan.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Blood samples from 950 IDPs suspected with HBV infection (including both males and females) were collected and processed with commercial ELISA kits for HBsAg, Anti HBs, HBeAg, Anti HBe antibodies. The samples positive by ELISA were confirmed for HBV DNA by real-time PCR analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall prevalence of HBV observed was 21.05% of which 78.5% were males and 21.5% were females. Most confirmed HBV patients belong to the Malakand and Dir (lower) district. High-risk of infection was found in the older subjects 29.13% (46-60 years), while a lower incidence (11.97%) was observed in children aged <15 years. Lack of awareness, socioecomic conditions, sexual activities and sharing of razor blades, syringes and tattooing needles were the most common risk factors of HBV infection observed during the cohort of patients.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present study, revealed for the first time a high degree of prevalence of HBV infection in rural areas of Northern Pakistan. The noticed prevalence is gender- and age-dependent that might be due to their high exposures to the common risk factors. To avoid the transmission of HBV infection proper awareness about the possible risk factors and extension of immunization to the rural areas are recommended.</p

Correlation of textile ‘resistance to damage’ scores with actual physical survival of long-lasting insecticidal nets in the field

Background Attempts have been made to link procurement of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) not only to the price but also the expected performance of the product. However, to date it has not been possible to identify a specific textile characteristic that predicts physical durability in the field. The recently developed resistance to damage (RD) score could provide such a metric. This study uses pooled data from durability monitoring to explore the usefulness of the RD methodology. Methods Data from standardized, 3-year, prospective LLIN durability monitoring for six LLIN brands in 10 locations and four countries involving 4672 campaign LLIN were linked to the RD scores of the respective LLIN brands. The RD score is a single quantitative metric based on a suite of standardized textile tests which in turn build on the mechanisms of damage to a mosquito net. Potential RD values range from 0 to 100 where 100 represents optimal resistance to expected day-to-day stress during reasonable net use. Survival analysis was set so that risk of failure only started when nets were first hung. Cox regression was applied to explore RD effects on physical survival adjusting for known net use environment variables. Results In a bivariate analysis RD scores showed a linear relationship with physical integrity suggesting that the proportion of LLIN with moderate damage decreased by 3%-points for each 10-point increase of the RD score (p = 0.02, R2 = 0.65). Full adjustment for net care and handling behaviours as well as other relevant determinants and the country of study showed that increasing RD score by 10 points resulted in a 36% reduction of risk of failure to survive in serviceable condition (p < 0.0001). LLINs with RD scores above 50 had an additional useful life of 7 months. Conclusions This study provides proof of principle that the RD metric can predict physical durability of LLIN products in the field and could be used to assess new products and guide manufacturers in creating improved products. However, additional validation from other field data, particularly for next generation LLIN, will be required before the RD score can be included in procurement decisions for LLINs

From high to low malaria transmission in Zanzibar-challenges and opportunities to achieve elimination.

BACKGROUND: Substantial global progress in the control of malaria in recent years has led to increased commitment to its potential elimination. Whether this is possible in high transmission areas of sub-Saharan Africa remains unclear. Zanzibar represents a unique case study of such attempt, where modern tools and strategies for malaria treatment and vector control have been deployed since 2003. METHODS: We have studied temporal trends of comprehensive malariometric indices in two districts with over 100,000 inhabitants each. The analyses included triangulation of data from annual community-based cross-sectional surveys, health management information systems, vital registry and entomological sentinel surveys. RESULTS: The interventions, with sustained high-community uptake, were temporally associated with a major malaria decline, most pronounced between 2004 and 2007 and followed by a sustained state of low transmission. In 2015, the Plasmodium falciparum community prevalence of 0.43% (95% CI 0.23-0.73) by microscopy or rapid diagnostic test represented 96% reduction compared with that in 2003. The P. falciparum and P. malariae prevalence by PCR was 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-2.3), and the annual P. falciparum incidence was estimated to 8 infections including 2.8 clinical episodes per 1000 inhabitants. The total parasite load decreased over 1000-fold (99.9%) between 2003 and 2015. The incidence of symptomatic malaria at health facilities decreased by 94% with a trend towards relatively higher incidence in age groups > 5 years, a more pronounced seasonality and with reported travel history to/from Tanzania mainland as a higher risk factor. All-cause mortality among children < 5 years decreased by 72% between 2002 and 2007 mainly following the introduction of artemisinin-based combination therapies whereas the main reduction in malaria incidence followed upon the vector control interventions from 2006. Human biting rates decreased by 98% with a major shift towards outdoor biting by Anopheles arabiensis. CONCLUSIONS: Zanzibar provides new evidence of the feasibility of reaching uniquely significant and sustainable malaria reduction (pre-elimination) in a previously high endemic region in sub-Saharan Africa. The data highlight constraints of optimistic prognostic modelling studies. New challenges, mainly with outdoor transmission, a large asymptomatic parasite reservoir and imported infections, require novel tools and reoriented strategies to prevent a rebound effect and achieve elimination

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Triple Co-Administration of Ivermectin, Albendazole and Praziquantel in Zanzibar: A Safety Study

This paper describes how the use of three drugs which are used separately in mass drug distribution programmes when given together appear safe for use in large populations which have been previously treated with the same drugs separately (Mectizan [ivermectin], albendazole and praziquantel). The target diseases—lymphatic filariasis, soil-transmitted worms and schistosomiasis—were prevalent in Zanzibar up to 2000 but have been largely controlled by mass drug administration. The Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, with the support of WHO, initiated a small scale trial in a population of triple therapy in over 5,000 people initially in two sites, and having found there were no severe adverse events associated with the combined treatment then upscaled to treat the whole of the eligible population of over 700,000. Similarly, there were no severe adverse events. This is the first time the three drugs have been used together at the same time at scale in Africa and provide a basis for expansion of integrated preventive chemotherapy of helminths (worms). The next steps need to be initiated in populations which have heavier worm loads and such interventions need to be subject to close monitoring and ethical review

How do nurses and teachers perform breast self-examination: are they reliable sources of information?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Breast cancer is the most common cause of cancer-related deaths among women worldwide. The aim of the present study was to determine and compare knowledge, behavior and attitudes among female nurses and teachers concerning breast self-examination (BSE).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two-hundred and eighty nine women working in Aydin, Turkey (125 nurses and 164 teachers) were included in the study. The data were collected using a questionnaire designed to measure the knowledge, attitudes and behavior of the groups. Analysis involved percentiles, χ²tests, <it>t </it>tests and factor analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The knowledge of nurses about BSE was higher than that of teachers (81.5% versus 45.1%; p < 0.001). BSE practice parameters (i.e. age groups, indications, frequency) were similar (p > 0.05), whereas skills in performing self-examination were higher in nurses (p < 0.001). Fear of having breast cancer is the most frequent reason for performing BSE. Among nurses, the reasons for failure to perform BSE were the absence of prominent breast problems (82%) and forgetting (56.4%). The teachers who did not perform BSE said that the reasons were lack of knowledge on how to perform self-examination (68.9%) and absence of problems (54%). Both groups had unacceptable technical errors in the performance of BSE.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We conclude that nurses and teachers should be supported with information enabling them to accomplish their roles in the community. To improve BSE practice, it is crucial to coordinate continuous and planned education.</p

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication