Structured Decision-Making and Rapid Prototyping to Plan a Management Response to an Invasive Species

We developed components of a decision structure that could be used in an adaptive management framework for responding to invasion of hemlock woolly adelgid Adeleges tsugae on the Cumberland Plateau of northern Tennessee. Hemlock woolly adelgid, an invasive forest pest, was first detected in this area in 2007. We used a structured decision-making process to identify and refine the management problem, objectives, and alternative management actions, and to assess consequences and tradeoffs among selected management alternatives. We identified four fundamental objectives: 1) conserve the aquatic and terrestrial riparian conservation targets, 2) protect and preserve hemlock, 3) develop and maintain adequate budget, and 4) address public concerns. We designed two prototype responses using an iterative process. By rapidly prototyping a first solution, insights were gained and shortcomings were identified, and some of these shortcomings were incorporated and corrected in the second prototype. We found that objectives were best met when management focused on early treatment of lightly to moderately infested but relatively healthy hemlock stands with biological control agent predator beetles and insect-killing fungi. Also, depending on the cost constraint, early treatment should be coupled with silvicultural management of moderately to severely infested and declining hemlock stands to accelerate conversion to nonhemlock mature forest cover. The two most valuable contributions of the structured decision-making process were 1) clarification and expansion of our objectives, and 2) application of tools to assess tradeoffs and predict consequences of alternative actions. Predicting consequences allowed us to evaluate the influence of uncertainty on the decision. For example, we found that the expected number of mature forest stands over 30 y would be increased by 4% by resolving the uncertainty regarding predator beetle effectiveness. The adaptive management framework requires further development including identifying and evaluating uncertainty, formalizing other competing predictive models, designing a monitoring program to update the predictive models, developing a process for re-evaluating the predictive models and incorporating new management technologies, and generating support for planning and implementation

The Comparative Pathology of Genetically Engineered Mouse Models for Neuroendocrine Carcinomas of the Lung

IntroductionBecause small-cell lung carcinomas (SCLC) are seldom resected, human materials for study are limited. Thus, genetically engineered mouse models (GEMMs) for SCLC and other high-grade lung neuroendocrine (NE) carcinomas are crucial for translational research.MethodsThe pathologies of five GEMMs were studied in detail and consensus diagnoses reached by four lung cancer pathology experts. Hematoxylin and Eosin and immunostained slides of over 100 mice were obtained from the originating and other laboratories and digitalized. The GEMMs included the original Rb/p53 double knockout (Berns Laboratory) and triple knockouts from the Sage, MacPherson, and Jacks laboratories (double knockout model plus loss of p130 [Sage laboratory] or loss of Pten [MacPherson and Jacks laboratories]). In addition, a GEMM with constitutive co-expression of SV40 large T antigen and Ascl1 under the Scgb1a1 promoter from the Linnoila laboratory were included.ResultsThe lung tumors in all of the models had common as well as distinct pathological features. All three conditional knockout models resulted in multiple pulmonary tumors arising mainly from the central compartment (large bronchi) with foci of in situ carcinoma and NE cell hyperplasia. They consisted of inter- and intra-tumor mixtures of SCLC and large-cell NE cell carcinoma in varying proportions. Occasional adeno- or large-cell carcinomas were also seen. Extensive vascular and lymphatic invasion and metastases to the mediastinum and liver were noted, mainly of SCLC histology. In the Rb/p53/Pten triple knockout model from the MacPherson and Jacks laboratories and in the constitutive SV40/T antigen model many peripherally arising non–small-cell lung carcinoma tumors having varying degrees of NE marker expression were present (non–small-cell lung carcinoma-NE tumors). The resultant histological phenotypes were influenced by the introduction of specific genetic alterations, by inactivation of one or both alleles of specific genes, by time from Cre activation and by targeting of lung cells or NE cell subpopulations.ConclusionThe five GEMM models studied are representative for the entire spectrum of human high-grade NE carcinomas and are also useful for the study of multistage pathogenesis and the metastatic properties of these tumors. They represent one of the most advanced forms of currently available GEMM models for the study of human cancer

The Comparative Pathology of Genetically Engineered Mouse Models for Neuroendocrine Carcinomas of the Lung

Introduction: Because small-cell lung carcinomas (SCLC) are seldom resected, human materials for study are limited. Thus, genetically engineered mouse models (GEMMs) for SCLC and other high-grade lung neuroendocrine (NE) carcinomas are crucial for translational research. Methods: The pathologies of five GEMMs were studied in detail and consensus diagnoses reached by four lung cancer pathology experts. Hematoxylin and Eosin and immunostained slides of over 100 mice were obtained from the originating and other laboratories and digitalized. The GEMMs included the original Rb/p53 double knockout (Berns Laboratory) and triple knockouts from the Sage, MacPherson, and Jacks laboratories (double knockout model plus loss of p130 [Sage laboratory] or loss of Pten [MacPherson and Jacks laboratories]). In addition, a GEMM with constitutive co-expression of SV40 large T antigen and Ascl1 under the Scgb1a1 promoter from the Linnoila laboratory were included. Results: The lung tumors in all of the models had common as well as distinct pathological features. All three conditional knockout models resulted in multiple pulmonary tumors arising mainly from the central compartment (large bronchi) with foci of in situ carcinoma and NE cell hyperplasia. They consisted of inter- and intra-tumor mixtures of SCLC and large-cell NE cell carcinoma in varying proportions. Occasional adeno- or large-cell carcinomas were also seen. Extensive vascular and lymphatic invasion and metastases to the mediastinum and liver were noted, mainly of SCLC histology. In the Rb/p53/Pten triple knockout model from the MacPherson and Jacks laboratories and in the constitutive SV40/T antigen model many peripherally arising non-small-cell lung carcinoma tumors having varying degrees of NE marker expression were present (non-small-cell lung carcinoma-NE tumors). The resultant histological phenotypes were influenced by the introduction of specific genetic alterations, by inactivation of one or both alleles of specific genes, by time from Cre activation and by targeting of lung cells or NE cell subpopulations. Conclusion: The five GEMM models studied are representative for the entire spectrum of human high-grade NE carcinomas and are also useful for the study of multistage pathogenesis and the metastatic properties of these tumors. They represent one of the most advanced forms of currently available GEMM models for the study of human cancer. Key Words: Neuroendocrine carcinomas; Small-cell lung carcinoma; Lung carcinoma; Non–small-cell lung cancer; Genetically engineered mouse models; Patholog

Audible Image Description as an Accommodation in Statewide Assessments for Students with Visual and Print Disabilities.

Introduction:Although image description has been identified as an accommodation for presentations conducted in the classroom, only a few U.S. states have approved it for use in high-stakes assessments. This study examined the use of audible image description as an assessment accommodation for students with visual and print disabilities by investigating student comprehension under multiple conditions. Methods: Students in three western states in grades three through eight who had visual (n= 117) or print (n= 178) disabilities participated in an abbreviated test constructed of retired assessment questions in English language arts, mathematics, and science, that were aligned with each state's instructional standards, under conditions with and without standardized description of graphic images. The study used a within-subjects block design to collect and compare comprehension data under conditions where audible image description was both used and not used in an abbreviated test. Results: Results indicated that students who read braille were more likely to respond correctly under the audible image description condition, and students with visual and print disabilities who used print were equally likely to respond correctly regardless of condition. Discussion: Braille readers were more likely to obtain a correct answer when audible image description accompanied the question. Audible image description did not affect the likelihood of a correct response from students with print disabilities or students with visual disabilities who read print. Implications for practitioners: Audible image description is an accommodation that may help braille readers perform better on tests. Although the Partnership for Assessment of Readiness for College and Careers (PARCC) and Smarter Balanced consortia are taking steps to include image (or picture) descriptions in their assessment accommodations, teachers may want to develop a standard method for describing images and familiarize their braille readers to the strategy by including it in instruction and in classroom tests. Readers are referred to the National Center on Accessible Media’s online guidelines for image description

High-resolution mass models of dwarf galaxies from LITTLE THINGS

We present high-resolution rotation curves and mass models of 26 dwarf galaxies from LITTLE THINGS. LITTLE THINGS is a high-resolution Very Large Array HI survey for nearby dwarf galaxies in the local volume within 11 Mpc. The rotation curves of the sample galaxies derived in a homogeneous and consistent manner are combined with Spitzer archival 3.6 micron and ancillary optical U, B, and V images to construct mass models of the galaxies. We decompose the rotation curves in terms of the dynamical contributions by baryons and dark matter halos, and compare the latter with those of dwarf galaxies from THINGS as well as Lambda CDM SPH simulations in which the effect of baryonic feedback processes is included. Being generally consistent with THINGS and simulated dwarf galaxies, most of the LITTLE THINGS sample galaxies show a linear increase of the rotation curve in their inner regions, which gives shallower logarithmic inner slopes alpha of their dark matter density profiles. The mean value of the slopes of the 26 LITTLE THINGS dwarf galaxies is alpha =-0.32 +/- 0.24 which is in accordance with the previous results found for low surface brightness galaxies (alpha = -0.2 +/- 0.2) as well as the seven THINGS dwarf galaxies (alpha =-0.29 +/- 0.07). However, this significantly deviates from the cusp-like dark matter distribution predicted by dark-matter-only Lambda CDM simulations. Instead our results are more in line with the shallower slopes found in the Lambda CDM SPH simulations of dwarf galaxies in which the effect of baryonic feedback processes is included. In addition, we discuss the central dark matter distribution of DDO 210 whose stellar mass is relatively low in our sample to examine the scenario of inefficient supernova feedback in low mass dwarf galaxies predicted from recent Lambda SPH simulations of dwarf galaxies where central cusps still remain.Peer reviewe

[Comment] Redefine statistical significance

The lack of reproducibility of scientific studies has caused growing concern over the credibility of claims of new discoveries based on “statistically significant” findings. There has been much progress toward documenting and addressing several causes of this lack of reproducibility (e.g., multiple testing, P-hacking, publication bias, and under-powered studies). However, we believe that a leading cause of non-reproducibility has not yet been adequately addressed: Statistical standards of evidence for claiming discoveries in many fields of science are simply too low. Associating “statistically significant” findings with P < 0.05 results in a high rate of false positives even in the absence of other experimental, procedural and reporting problems. For fields where the threshold for defining statistical significance is P<0.05, we propose a change to P<0.005. This simple step would immediately improve the reproducibility of scientific research in many fields. Results that would currently be called “significant” but do not meet the new threshold should instead be called “suggestive.” While statisticians have known the relative weakness of using P≈0.05 as a threshold for discovery and the proposal to lower it to 0.005 is not new (1, 2), a critical mass of researchers now endorse this change. We restrict our recommendation to claims of discovery of new effects. We do not address the appropriate threshold for confirmatory or contradictory replications of existing claims. We also do not advocate changes to discovery thresholds in fields that have already adopted more stringent standards (e.g., genomics and high-energy physics research; see Potential Objections below). We also restrict our recommendation to studies that conduct null hypothesis significance tests. We have diverse views about how best to improve reproducibility, and many of us believe that other ways of summarizing the data, such as Bayes factors or other posterior summaries based on clearly articulated model assumptions, are preferable to P-values. However, changing the P-value threshold is simple and might quickly achieve broad acceptance

Living Well with Diabetes: a randomized controlled trial of a telephone-delivered intervention for maintenance of weight loss, physical activity and glycaemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes

Background By 2025, it is estimated that approximately 1.8 million Australian adults (approximately 8.4% of the adult population) will have diabetes, with the majority having type 2 diabetes. Weight management via improved physical activity and diet is the cornerstone of type 2 diabetes management. However, the majority of weight loss trials in diabetes have evaluated short-term, intensive clinic-based interventions that, while producing short-term outcomes, have failed to address issues of maintenance and broad population reach. Telephone-delivered interventions have the potential to address these gaps. Methods/Design Using a two-arm randomised controlled design, this study will evaluate an 18-month, telephone-delivered, behavioural weight loss intervention focussing on physical activity, diet and behavioural therapy, versus usual care, with follow-up at 24 months. Three-hundred adult participants, aged 20-75 years, with type 2 diabetes, will be recruited from 10 general practices via electronic medical records search. The Social-Cognitive Theory driven intervention involves a six-month intensive phase (4 weekly calls and 11 fortnightly calls) and a 12-month maintenance phase (one call per month). Primary outcomes, assessed at 6, 18 and 24 months, are: weight loss, physical activity, and glycaemic control (HbA1c), with weight loss and physical activity also measured at 12 months. Incremental cost-effectiveness will also be examined. Study recruitment began in February 2009, with final data collection expected by February 2013. Discussion This is the first study to evaluate the telephone as the primary method of delivering a behavioural weight loss intervention in type 2 diabetes. The evaluation of maintenance outcomes (6 months following the end of intervention), the use of accelerometers to objectively measure physical activity, and the inclusion of a cost-effectiveness analysis will advance the science of broad reach approaches to weight control and health behaviour change, and will build the evidence base needed to advocate for the translation of this work into population health practice

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements