Bayesian integration of sensor information and a multivariate dynamic linear model for prediction of dairy cow mastitis

AbstractRapid detection of dairy cow mastitis is important so corrective action can be taken as soon as possible. Automatically collected sensor data used to monitor the performance and the health state of the cow could be useful for rapid detection of mastitis while reducing the labor needs for monitoring. The state of the art in combining sensor data to predict clinical mastitis still does not perform well enough to be applied in practice. Our objective was to combine a multivariate dynamic linear model (DLM) with a naïve Bayesian classifier (NBC) in a novel method using sensor and nonsensor data to detect clinical cases of mastitis. We also evaluated reductions in the number of sensors for detecting mastitis. With the DLM, we co-modeled 7 sources of sensor data (milk yield, fat, protein, lactose, conductivity, blood, body weight) collected at each milking for individual cows to produce one-step-ahead forecasts for each sensor. The observations were subsequently categorized according to the errors of the forecasted values and the estimated forecast variance. The categorized sensor data were combined with other data pertaining to the cow (week in milk, parity, mastitis history, somatic cell count category, and season) using Bayes’ theorem, which produced a combined probability of the cow having clinical mastitis. If this probability was above a set threshold, the cow was classified as mastitis positive. To illustrate the performance of our method, we used sensor data from 1,003,207 milkings from the University of Florida Dairy Unit collected from 2008 to 2014. Of these, 2,907 milkings were associated with recorded cases of clinical mastitis. Using the DLM/NBC method, we reached an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89, with a specificity of 0.81 when the sensitivity was set at 0.80. Specificities with omissions of sensor data ranged from 0.58 to 0.81. These results are comparable to other studies, but differences in data quality, definitions of clinical mastitis, and time windows make comparisons across studies difficult. We found the DLM/NBC method to be a flexible method for combining multiple sensor and nonsensor data sources to predict clinical mastitis and accommodate missing observations. Further research is needed before practical implementation is possible. In particular, the performance of our method needs to be improved in the first 2 wk of lactation. The DLM method produces forecasts that are based on continuously estimated multivariate normal distributions, which makes forecasts and forecast errors easy to interpret, and new sensors can easily be added

Bayesian prediction of bacterial growth temperature range based on genome sequences

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The preferred habitat of a given bacterium can provide a hint of which types of enzymes of potential industrial interest it might produce. These might include enzymes that are stable and active at very high or very low temperatures. Being able to accurately predict this based on a genomic sequence, would thus allow for an efficient and targeted search for production organisms, reducing the need for culturing experiments.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This study found a total of 40 protein families useful for distinction between three thermophilicity classes (thermophiles, mesophiles and psychrophiles). The predictive performance of these protein families were compared to those of 87 basic sequence features (relative use of amino acids and codons, genomic and 16S rDNA AT content and genome size). When using naïve Bayesian inference, it was possible to correctly predict the optimal temperature range with a Matthews correlation coefficient of up to 0.68. The best predictive performance was always achieved by including protein families as well as structural features, compared to either of these alone. A dedicated computer program was created to perform these predictions.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study shows that protein families associated with specific thermophilicity classes can provide effective input data for thermophilicity prediction, and that the naïve Bayesian approach is effective for such a task. The program created for this study is able to efficiently distinguish between thermophilic, mesophilic and psychrophilic adapted bacterial genomes.</p

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements