Reconstruction of erythemal UV-doses for two stations in Austria: a comparison between alpine and urban regions

The aim of this study is the reconstruction of past UV-doses for two stations in Austria, Hoher Sonnblick and Vienna, using a physical radiation transfer model. The method uses the modeled UV-dose under clear-sky conditions, cloud modification factors and a correction factor as input variables. To identify the influence of temporal resolution of input data and modification factors, an ensemble of four different modelling approaches was calculated, each with hourly or daily resolution. This is especially important because we found no other study describing the influence of the temporal resolution of input data on model performance. Following the results of the statistical analysis of the evaluation period the model with the highest temporal resolution (HMC) was chosen for the reconstruction of UV-doses. A good agreement between modelled and measured values of erythemally effective UV-doses was found at both stations. In relation to the reference period 1976–1985 an increase in the erythemal UV-dose in Vienna of 11% is visible in the period 1986–1995 and an increase of 17% in the period 1996–2005 can be seen. At Hoher Sonnblick the corresponding increase is 2% and 9%. For the different seasons the strongest increase in erythemal UV-dose has been found for winter and spring season at both stations. Further the influences of total ozone and cloudiness on changes in erythemal UV-doses were analyzed. This analysis showed for both stations, that changes in total ozone had a larger influence on erythemal UV-doses than changes in cloudiness

Climate warming and decreasing total column ozone over the Tibetan Plateau during winter and spring

The long-term trends of the total column ozone (TCO) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and factors responsible for the trends are analysed in this study using various observations and a chemistry–climate model (CCM). The results indicate that the total column ozone low (TOL) over the TP during winter and spring is deepening over the recent decade, which is opposite to the recovery signal in annual mean TCO over the TP after mid-1990s. The TOL intensity is increasing at a rate of 1.4 DU/decade and the TOL area is extending with 50,000 km2/decade during winter for the period 1979–2009. The enhanced transport of ozone-poor air into the stratosphere and elevated tropopause due to the rapid and significant warming over the TP during winter reduce ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere and hence lead to the deepening of the TOL. Based on the analysis of the multiple regression model, the thermal dynamical processes associated with the TP warming accounts for more than 50% of TCO decline during winter for the period 1979–2009. The solar variations during 1995–2009 further enlarge ozone decreases over the TP in the past decade. According to the CCM simulations, the increases in NOx emissions in East Asia and global tropospheric N2O mixing ratio for the period 1979–2009 contribute to no more than 20% reductions in TCO during this period

Environmental effects of ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change : UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2017

Peer reviewe

Nonlinear (MARS) modeling of long-term variations of surface UV-B radiation as revealed from the analysis of Belsk, Poland data for the period 1976–2000

A new, powerful statistical technique, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), is applied to reproduce monthly fractional deviations of UV-B doses over Belsk, Poland, during the snowless (May–October) part of the year in the period 1976–2000. Two kinds of regressors were used: local ones (total ozone, percentage of sky covered by low-, mid-, high-level clouds or total solar radiation over Belsk) and non-local ones, i.e. those describing the long-distance forcings on the surface UV-B due to changes in the global atmospheric circulation. Standard indices of the Quasi-Biennial, North Atlantic, El Niño-Southern Oscillations, and the 11-year solar activity were used as non-local regressors. The results there indicate that the MARS procedure is able to reproduce the observed year-to-year and decadal oscillations in the UV data. The MARS model yields better model-observation agreement than an ordinary least-squares fit based on the same set of regressors. It is found that MARS is capable of handling interactions between the local and non-local regressors, suggesting a possible nonlinear nature of connections between variables characterizing the atmospheric transparency over Belsk and the long-distance forcings. MARS enables a reconstruction of the surface UV-B variations over any site based on the cloud and ozone data presently stored on web pages.Key words. Atmospheric composition and structure (aerosols and particles; biosphere-atmosphere interactions

Trends in erythemal doses at the Polish Polar Station, Hornsund, Svalbard based on the homogenized measurements (1996–2016) and reconstructed data (1983–1995)

Erythemal daily doses measured at the Polish Polar Station, Hornsund (77°00′ N, 15°33′ E), for the periods 1996–2001 and 2005–2016 are homogenized using yearly calibration constants derived from the comparison of observed doses for cloudless conditions with the corresponding doses calculated by radiative transfer (RT) simulations. Modeled all-sky doses are calculated by the multiplication of cloudless RT doses by the empirical cloud modification factor dependent on the daily sunshine duration. An all-sky model is built using daily erythemal doses measured in the period 2005–2006–2007. The model is verified by comparisons with the 1996–1997–1998 and 2009–2010–2011 measured data. The daily doses since 1983 (beginning of the proxy data) are reconstructed using the all-sky model with the historical data of the column ozone from satellite measurements (SBUV merged ozone data set), the snow depth (for ground albedo estimation), and the observed daily sunshine duration at the site. Trend analyses of the monthly and yearly time series comprised of the reconstructed and observed doses do not reveal a statistically significant trend in the period 1983–2016. The trends based on the observed data only (1996–2001 and 2005–2016) show declining tendency (about −1 % per year) in the monthly mean of daily erythemal doses in May and June, and in the yearly sum of daily erythemal doses. An analysis of sources of the yearly dose variability since 1983 shows that cloud cover changes are a basic driver of the long-term UV changes at the site

Beginning of the ozone recovery over Europe? − Analysis of the total ozone data from the ground-based observations, 1964−2004

The total ozone variations over Europe (~50° N) in the period 1964–2004 are analyzed for detection of signals of ozone recovery. The ozone deviations from the long-term monthly means (1964–1980) for selected European stations, where the ozone observations (by the Dobson spectrophotometers) have been carried out continuously for at least 3–4 decades, are averaged and examined by a regression model. A new method is proposed to disclose both the ozone trend variations and date of the trend turnaround. The regression model contains a piecewise linear trend component and the terms describing the ozone response to forcing by "natural" changes in the atmosphere. Standard proxies for the dynamically driven ozone variations are used. The Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) methodology and principal component analysis are used to find an optimal set of the explanatory variables and the trend pattern. The turnaround of the ozone trend in 1994 is suggested from the pattern of the piecewise linear trend component. Thus, the changes in the ozone mean level are calculated over the periods 1970–1994 and 1994–2003, for both the original time series and the time series having "natural" variations removed. Statistical significance of the changes are derived by bootstrapping. A first stage of recovery (according to the definition of the International Ozone Commission), i.e. lessening of a negative trend, is found over Europe. It seems possible that the increase in the ozone mean level since 1994 of about 1–2% is due to superposition of the "natural" processes. Comparison of the total ozone ground-based network (the Dobson and Brewer spectrophotometers) and the satellite (TOMS, version 8) data over Europe shows the small bias in the mean values for the period 1996–2004, but the differences between the daily ozone values from these instruments are not trendless, and this may hamper an identification of the next stage of the ozone recovery over Europe. Keywords. Atmospheric composition and structure (Middle atmosphere-composition and chemistry) – Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (Climatology, Middle atmosphere dynamics

Effects of urban agglomeration on surface-UV doses: a comparison of Brewer measurements in Warsaw and Belsk, Poland, for the period 2013–2015

Specific aerosols and cloud properties over large urban regions seem to generate an island, similar to the well-known urban heat island, leading to lower ultraviolet (UV) radiation intensity compared to the surrounding less polluted areas, thus creating a shield against excessive human exposure to UV radiation. The present study focuses on differences between erythemal and UVA (324 nm) doses measured by the Brewer spectrophotometers in Warsaw (52.3° N, 21.0° E) and Belsk (51.8° N, 20.8° E). The latter is a rural region located about 60 km south-west of the city. Ratios between erythemal and UVA partly daily doses, obtained during all-sky and cloudless-sky conditions for the period May 2013–December 2015, were analysed to infer a specific cloud and aerosol forcing on the surface UV doses over Warsaw. Radiative model simulations were carried out to find sources of the observed differences between the sites. It was found that Warsaw urban agglomeration induced 8 and 6 % attenuation of the erythemal and UVA doses respectively. This is mostly due to the lower sun elevation in Warsaw during the near-noon measurements and the larger optical depth of the city aerosols and increased cloudiness. It could be hypothesised that the expected stronger absorption of the solar UV radiation by urban aerosols is compensated for here by a higher surface reflectivity over the city