On Compound Poisson Processes Arising in Change-Point Type Statistical Models as Limiting Likelihood Ratios

Different change-point type models encountered in statistical inference for stochastic processes give rise to different limiting likelihood ratio processes. In a previous paper of one of the authors it was established that one of these likelihood ratios, which is an exponential functional of a two-sided Poisson process driven by some parameter, can be approximated (for sufficiently small values of the parameter) by another one, which is an exponential functional of a two-sided Brownian motion. In this paper we consider yet another likelihood ratio, which is the exponent of a two-sided compound Poisson process driven by some parameter. We establish, that similarly to the Poisson type one, the compound Poisson type likelihood ratio can be approximated by the Brownian type one for sufficiently small values of the parameter. We equally discuss the asymptotics for large values of the parameter and illustrate the results by numerical simulations

Limit theorems for von Mises statistics of a measure preserving transformation

For a measure preserving transformation $T$ of a probability space $(X,\mathcal F,\mu)$ we investigate almost sure and distributional convergence of random variables of the form $$x \to \frac{1}{C_n} \sum_{i_1<n,...,i_d<n} f(T^{i_1}x,...,T^{i_d}x),\, n=1,2,...,$$ where $f$ (called the \emph{kernel}) is a function from $X^d$ to $\R$ and $C_1, C_2,...$ are appropriate normalizing constants. We observe that the above random variables are well defined and belong to $L_r(\mu)$ provided that the kernel is chosen from the projective tensor product $$L_p(X_1,\mathcal F_1, \mu_1) \otimes_{\pi}...\otimes_{\pi} L_p(X_d,\mathcal F_d, \mu_d)\subset L_p(\mu^d)$$ with $p=d\,r,\, r\ \in [1, \infty).$ We establish a form of the individual ergodic theorem for such sequences. Next, we give a martingale approximation argument to derive a central limit theorem in the non-degenerate case (in the sense of the classical Hoeffding's decomposition). Furthermore, for $d=2$ and a wide class of canonical kernels $f$ we also show that the convergence holds in distribution towards a quadratic form $\sum_{m=1}^{\infty} \lambda_m\eta^2_m$ in independent standard Gaussian variables $\eta_1, \eta_2,...$. Our results on the distributional convergence use a $T$--\,invariant filtration as a prerequisite and are derived from uni- and multivariate martingale approximations

Gamma-ray lines and neutrons from solar flares

The energy spectrum of accelerated protons and nuclei at the site of a limb flare was derived by a technique, using observations of the time dependent flux of high energy neutrons at the Earth. This energy spectrum is very similar to the energy spectra of 7 disk flares for which the accelerated particle spectra was previously derived using observations of 4 to 7 MeV to 2.223 MeV fluence ratios. The implied spectra for all of these flares are too steep to produce any significant amount of radiation from pi meson decay. It is suggested that the observed 10 MeV gamma rays from the flare are bremsstrahlung of relativistic electrons

Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Hidden Markov Models in continuous time

The paper studies large sample asymptotic properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) for the parameter of a continuous time Markov chain, observed in white noise. Using the method of weak convergence of likelihoods due to I.Ibragimov and R.Khasminskii, consistency, asymptotic normality and convergence of moments are established for MLE under certain strong ergodicity conditions of the chain.Comment: Warning: due to a flaw in the publishing process, some of the references in the published version of the article are confuse

A simple proof of Duquesne's theorem on contour processes of conditioned Galton-Watson trees

We give a simple new proof of a theorem of Duquesne, stating that the properly rescaled contour function of a critical aperiodic Galton-Watson tree, whose offspring distribution is in the domain of attraction of a stable law of index $\theta \in (1,2]$, conditioned on having total progeny $n$, converges in the functional sense to the normalized excursion of the continuous-time height function of a strictly stable spectrally positive L\'evy process of index $\theta$. To this end, we generalize an idea of Le Gall which consists in using an absolute continuity relation between the conditional probability of having total progeny exactly $n$ and the conditional probability of having total progeny at least $n$. This new method is robust and can be adapted to establish invariance theorems for Galton-Watson trees having $n$ vertices whose degrees are prescribed to belong to a fixed subset of the positive integers.Comment: 16 pages, 2 figures. Published versio

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration