Multiple‐systems analysis for the quantification of modern slavery: classical and Bayesian approaches

Multiple systems estimation is a key approach for quantifying hidden populations such as the number of victims of modern slavery. The UK Government published an estimate of 10,000 to 13,000 victims, constructed by the present author, as part of the strategy leading to the Modern Slavery Act 2015. This estimate was obtained by a stepwise multiple systems method based on six lists. Further investigation shows that a small proportion of the possible models give rather different answers, and that other model fitting approaches may choose one of these. Three data sets collected in the field of modern slavery, together with a data set about the death toll in the Kosovo conflict, are used to investigate the stability and robustness of various multiple systems estimate methods. The crucial aspect is the way that interactions between lists are modelled, because these can substantially affect the results. Model selection and Bayesian approaches are considered in detail, in particular to assess their stability and robustness when applied to real modern slavery data. A new Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian approach is developed; overall, this gives robust and stable results at least for the examples considered. The software and datasets are freely and publicly available to facilitate wider implementation and further research

Pathways to permanence in England and Norway: A critical analysis of documents and data

The English language term ‘permanence’ is increasingly used in high income countries as a ‘short-hand’ translation for a complex set of aims around providing stability and family membership for children who need child welfare services and out-of-home care. From a scrutiny of legislative provisions, court judgments, government documents and a public opinion survey on child placement options, the paper draws out similarities and differences in understandings of the place of ‘permanence’ within the child welfare discourse in Norway and England. The main differences are that in England the components of permanence are explicitly set out in legislation, statutory guidance and advisory documents whilst in Norway the terms ‘stability’ and ‘continuity’ are used in a more limited number of policy documents in the context of a wide array of services available for children and families. The paper then draws on these sources, and on administrative data on children in care, to tease out possible explanations for the similarities and differences identified. We hypothesise that both long-standing policies and recent changes can be explained by differences in public and political understandings of child welfare and the balance between universal services and those targeted on parents and children identified as vulnerable and in need of specialist services

The Bryn Celli Ddu Minecraft Experience: A Workflow and Problem-Solving Case Study in the Creation of an Archaeological Reconstruction in Minecraft for Cultural Heritage Education

This article explores the technical and interpretative issues surrounding the creation of a Minecraft Education Edition world for use by primary age school children (5-11 years). The project team undertook to create a Minecraft version of the prehistoric landscape surrounding the Neolithic passage tomb of Bryn Celli Ddu, Anglesey, Wales, United Kingdom. The workflow described here details the process from the initial aims of the project, designed to integrate heritage and STEM education; through the processing of lidar data to create the topography of the world; through the archaeological reconstruction; and then final release. An understanding of the workflow is particularly important for researchers and educators because the successful delivery of our aims resulted in a number of technical obstacles inherent in creating a Minecraft world when a designer is required to navigate several versions of the program - Java architecture, C++ architecture, and the Education Edition - and explains workarounds developed to overcome these issues. The article also considers the interpretative compromises required to translate complex archaeological remains into an accessible and engaging experience for school children set within the strictures of a program that allows a maximum physical resolution of a 1 × 1 m voxel block

Accommodating 'others'?: housing dispersed, forced migrants in the UK

Utilising insights from a qualitative study in the city of Leeds (UK), this paper considers issues related to the housing of dispersed forced migrants. The term 'dispersed forced migrants' is used here as a general label to include four groups of international migrants (i.e. refugees, asylum seekers, those with humanitarian protection status and failed asylum seekers) who have previously been dispersed, on a no choice basis, to a variety of locations across the UK under the requirements of the Immigration and Asylum Act (1999). The tiering of housing entitlement that exists within the generic population of dispersed forced migrants (a consequence of the particular socio-legal status assigned to individuals), and its role in rendering migrants susceptible to homelessness is outlined. The adequacy/standard of accommodation made available to forced migrants is also discussed. It is concluded that current arrangements fail to meet the basic housing needs of many forced migrants. Any future improvement in this situation will require a significant shift in government policy

Teachers' and pupils' definitions of bullying.

BACKGROUND: Comparison of teachers' and pupils' definitions of bullying is important for considering the implications for reports of its incidence in schools, for the study of developmental trends in children's and adolescents' perceptions of the phenomenon and for evaluating the effectiveness of interventions designed to combat bullying. AIMS: To investigate the effects of gender, teacher/pupil status and, for pupils, bullied/non-bullied (target/non-target) status and age on the definition of bullying. SAMPLES: Teachers (N=225: 158 women, 67 men) and pupils (N=1,820: 466 boys, 460 girls were 11-12 years old, year 7, and 415 boys, 479 girls were 13-14 years, year 9) in 51 UK secondary schools participated in a questionnaire survey. A total of 557 of the pupils (117 girls and 117 boys aged 11-12 years, and 197 girls and 126 boys aged 13-14 years) reported that they had been bullied at some time in their present school. METHODS: Written questionnaire responses to the question, 'Say what you think bullying is' have been content analysed to derive two sets of categories, one of bullying behaviour and the other of effects of bullying on the target. RESULTS: Regarding both bullying behaviour and the effects of bullying on the target, teachers - by comparison with pupils - have been found to express more comprehensive ideas in their definitions. Specifically, pupils compared with teachers are more likely to restrict their definitions to direct bullying (verbal and/or physical abuse) and are less likely to refer to social exclusion, a power imbalance in the bully's favour and the bully's intention to cause the target hurt or harm and to feel threatened. Analysis of definitions on the bases of sex, pupil age and target/non-target status show that: targets are more likely than non-targets are to refer to the bully's physically and verbally abusive behaviour, and for Year 7 compared with Year 9 pupils, to suggest that bullies socially exclude targets; girls are more likely than boys are to mention verbal abuse and the effects on the target of 'Feels hurt/harm', but boys are more likely than girls are to construe bullying as involving repetition; older pupils are more likely than younger ones are to refer to a power imbalance in the bully's favour but, for bully targets, younger ones compared with older ones are more likely to invoke the idea of social exclusion in their definitions. CONCLUSIONS: The most important implication of the findings of this study that there are important differences between teachers' and pupils' definitions of bullying is that teachers need to listen carefully to what pupils have to say about bullying and work with and help them to develop their conceptions of the phenomenon. Some teachers, too, need to develop their conceptions of bullying

From Provider to Enabler of Care: Reconfiguring Local Authority Support for Older People and Carers in Leeds, 2008 to 2013

This article explores developments in the support available to older people and carers (i.e., caregivers) in the city of Leeds, United Kingdom, and examines provision changes during a period characterized by unprecedented resource constraint and new developments in national-local governance. Using documentary evidence, official statistics and findings from recent studies led by the author, the effects of these changes on service planning and delivery and the approach taken by local actors to mitigate their impact are highlighted. The statistical data show a marked decline in some types of services for older people during a five year period during which the city council took steps to mobilize citizens and develop new services and system improvements. The analysis focuses on theories of social quality as a framework for analysis of the complex picture of change related to service provision. It concludes that although citizen involvement and consultations exerted a positive influence in delivering support to some older people and carers, research over a longer timescale is needed to show if these changes are adequate to protect older people and carers from the effects of ongoing budgetary constraints