Population Growth and its Spatial Dimension and its Impact on the Sustainable Standard of Residential land Uses. Najaf District Case Study for the Period 2020-2025

هناك تأثيراً للنمو السكاني على استعمالات الأرض الحضرية, ولابد من الاستعداد والتنبأ بالنتائج الممكنة او المحتملة, وما تسببه من مشاكل من جراء سوء التخطيط والإدارة  والتنفيذ, ناهيك عن التهاون في حساب التنبؤ باتجاه وحجم العلاقة بين النمو السكاني والنمو العمراني, وعلى وجه الخصوص التشبع والتنوع العمراني المحتمل بفعل وتأثير النمو السكاني, ولكي لا ننتظر حدوث المشكلة, علينا أن نبادر ونعترف أن هناك مشكلة محلية وإقليمية في موضوع الإسكان ونمو السكان, أي أن الرصيد السكني  لا يلبي الحاجة السكنية بسبب النمو السكاني المتزايد مما يخلق فجوة متزايدة بينهما, اعتمد البحث المنهج التحليلي الوصفي لبيانات تاريخية حقيقية لكل من سكان ومساحات الأحياء السكنية والحصة المعيارية المستدامة للاستعمال السكني لقضاء النجف, الذي قُسم إلى ستة نطاقات؛ وذلك ليسهل علينا دراستها وتحليل متغيراتها, والتنبؤ بالمعيار المستدام المتنامي للمناطق السكنية لخمس سنوات قادمة في منطقة الدراسة, ومن بين النتائج الأهم أن هناك سوء تدبير وتقدير للنمو السكاني الذي ولد تشبع عمراني في استعمالات الأرض الحضرية, وفي مقدمتها تفاوت التأثير للنمو السكاني على المعيار السكني المستدام, وهذا بطبيعة الحال أنتج نسبة معيارية مستدامة لائقة ومقبولة للاستعمال السكني, و نسبة معيارية غير مستدامة وغير لائقة وغير مقبولة للاستعمال السكني, وكلاهما يقعان بين الحدّ الأعلى والأدنى للمعيار وأحيانا خارج الحدّ الأعلى. وللحفاظ على استدامة المعيار المتنامي، لينسجم مع واقع استعمالات الأرض الحضرية بات لزاما تحريك او نقل المتنامي من السكان ضمن أو خارج النطاق (Zone)، وذلك لخلق انسجام مستدام بين السكان والإسكان في ظل معيار متنامي ومستدام.There is an impact of population growth on urban land uses, and it is necessary to prepare and predict the possible or potential results, and the problems it causes as a result of poor planning, management and implementation, not to mention the negligence in calculating the direction and size of the relationship between population growth and urban growth, in particular urban saturation and diversity. The potential effect of population growth, and in order not to wait for the problem to occur, we must take the initiative and recognize that there is a local and regional problem in the issue of housing and population growth, meaning that the housing stock does not meet the housing need due to the increasing population growth, which creates an increasing gap between them. The research adopted a descriptive analytical approach to real historical data for both residents and residential areas and the sustainable standard share of residential use for Najaf district. Which was divided into six zones to make it easier for us to study them, analyze their variables, and predict the growing sustainable standard of residential areas for the next five years in the study area. One of the most important results is that there is a mismanagement and wrong estimation of population growth that has generated urban saturation in urban land uses. Foremost among them is the varying impact of population growth on the sustainable housing standard, which, of course, has created a decent and acceptable sustainable standard ratio for residential use and another that is unsustainable, inappropriate and unacceptable for residential use, both of them are located between the upper and lower limits of the standard and sometimes out of  standards. In order to maintain the sustainability of the growing standard to conform the reality of urban land uses, it is necessary to move or relocate the developing population within or outside zone to create sustainable harmony between population and housing under a growing and sustainable standard.&nbsp

Assessment of government financing policies for housing of low income in Iraq: a case study of Babylon City.

Kebanyakan negara di dunia mengalami masalah kekurangan rumah kerana pelbagai sebab, antaranya: kekurangan sumber kewangan dan kegagalan dasar perumahan, terutamanya dasar perumahan negara. Suatu dasar perumahan negara seharusnya diadaptasi dalam usaha merangka pelan serta program pentadbiran untuk mencapai matlamat negara. Many countries in the world are suffering from the problem of housing shortage for many reasons, such as, lack of financing sources and the failure of national housing policies. A national housing policy should be adapted to devise an administrative plan and programmed to achieve national goals

Urban Grow thin the City of Najaf Al - Ashraf (Center): Vision and Solutions for the Period 2017-2027 According to Urban Land Use Criteria

يُعد نمو السكان الحضر من أهم الأسباب لزيادة الرقعة العمرانية الحضرية, وهذا سوف يقود الى تغير في وظائف استعمالات الارض الحضرية, والتخطيط الذي يربط بين الاثنين النمو السكاني والنمو العمراني يُنتج نمو عمراني مرغوب دخل حدود المخطط الأساس, إلا أن غياب التخطيط  يقود إلى  نمو عمراني غير مرغوب وخارج نطاق المخطط الأساس. كما أن الفجوة المتزايدة بين النمو العمراني والنمو السكاني  سوف تُنتج  التغير غير المرغوب في الوظائف العمرانية متمثلة في استخدامات ارض حضرية غير مستدامة وغير معيارية. والهدف من هذا البحث خلق حالة من التأثير الإيجابي المتبادل والمتوازن بين النمو الحضري ونمو السكان تحت تأثير المعيار الحضري المستدام وتوزيع وظيفي لاستعمالات الارض الحضرية المتنوعة. معادلة نمو السكان البسيطة والمعيار الحضري المستدام والمنهج التاريخي الوصفي المتبع للربط بين النمو العمراني والنمو السكاني وذلك من خلال التوقع الدقيق للسكان باستخدام معادلة نمو السكان لسنوات قادمة قد تصل لعشر سنوت مقبلة بحيث يتوزع السكان عمرانيًا على أساس استخدامات الأرض الحضرية الموزونة بمعايير استخدام الارض الحضرية المحلية او الإقليمية التي تتجاوب مع الوضع الاجتماعي والاقتصادي والثقافي للسكان. الاستنتاج الأهم أن سنة 2017 سجلت فجوة كبيرة بين المعمور وغير المعمور  لصالح غير المعمور أي ان هناك مساحات كبيرة لم يتم استخدامها وتتسع لنمو محتمل في المستقبل, إلا أن هذه الفجوة لا تعطي الضوء الأخضر بأن التخطيط العمراني يستجيب لمتطلبات النمو السكاني خصوصًا ان مشكلة السكن والصحة والكهرباء والماء والنقل والضوضاء والتلوث البيئي تعاني منها أغلب الدول النامية وحدود منطقة الدراسة ضمنها.The urban population is one of the main reasons for the increase in urban area, this will lead to a change in urban land use functions. Planning connects between population growth and urban growth and both will lead to desirable urban growth within the master plan, however, lack of planning leads to undesirable urban growth outside the scope of the master plan. The growing gap between urban growth and population growth will produce the undesirable change in urban functions, such as unsustainable and non-standard urban land use. The aim of this research is to create a positive and balanced positive effect between urban growth and population growth under the influence of the sustainable urban criterion and a functional distribution of the various urban land uses. The equation of simple population growth and the sustainable urban standard and the descriptive historical approach used to link urban growth with population growth, through the accurate forecast of the population is using the population growth equation for years to come may reach ten years. Urban population is distributed on the basis of the uses of urban land, which are balanced by the criteria of using local or regional urban land that respond to the social, economic and cultural situation of the population. The most important conclusion is that the year 2017 recorded a large gap between the inhabited and uninhabited land in favor of uninhabited land, that there are large areas have not been used and expand to future potentialgrowth. However, this gap does not give us the green light, it means the urban planning is not sure responds to the requirements of population growth, especially there are the problem of housing, health, electricity, water, transport, noise and environmental pollution suffer from most developing countries and Iraq is no exception

Emergence of an Extensively Drug-Resistant Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhi Clone Harboring a Promiscuous Plasmid Encoding Resistance to Fluoroquinolones and Third-Generation Cephalosporins.

Antibiotic resistance is a major problem in Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi, the causative agent of typhoid. Multidrug-resistant (MDR) isolates are prevalent in parts of Asia and Africa and are often associated with the dominant H58 haplotype. Reduced susceptibility to fluoroquinolones is also widespread, and sporadic cases of resistance to third-generation cephalosporins or azithromycin have also been reported. Here, we report the first large-scale emergence and spread of a novel S Typhi clone harboring resistance to three first-line drugs (chloramphenicol, ampicillin, and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole) as well as fluoroquinolones and third-generation cephalosporins in Sindh, Pakistan, which we classify as extensively drug resistant (XDR). Over 300 XDR typhoid cases have emerged in Sindh, Pakistan, since November 2016. Additionally, a single case of travel-associated XDR typhoid has recently been identified in the United Kingdom. Whole-genome sequencing of over 80 of the XDR isolates revealed remarkable genetic clonality and sequence conservation, identified a large number of resistance determinants, and showed that these isolates were of haplotype H58. The XDR S Typhi clone encodes a chromosomally located resistance region and harbors a plasmid encoding additional resistance elements, including the blaCTX-M-15 extended-spectrum β-lactamase, and carrying the qnrS fluoroquinolone resistance gene. This antibiotic resistance-associated IncY plasmid exhibited high sequence identity to plasmids found in other enteric bacteria isolated from widely distributed geographic locations. This study highlights three concerning problems: the receding antibiotic arsenal for typhoid treatment, the ability of S Typhi to transform from MDR to XDR in a single step by acquisition of a plasmid, and the ability of XDR clones to spread globally.IMPORTANCE Typhoid fever is a severe disease caused by the Gram-negative bacterium Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi. Antibiotic-resistant S Typhi strains have become increasingly common. Here, we report the first large-scale emergence and spread of a novel extensively drug-resistant (XDR) S Typhi clone in Sindh, Pakistan. The XDR S Typhi is resistant to the majority of drugs available for the treatment of typhoid fever. This study highlights the evolving threat of antibiotic resistance in S Typhi and the value of antibiotic susceptibility testing and whole-genome sequencing in understanding emerging infectious diseases. We genetically characterized the XDR S Typhi to investigate the phylogenetic relationship between these isolates and a global collection of S Typhi isolates and to identify multiple genes linked to antibiotic resistance. This S Typhi clone harbored a promiscuous antibiotic resistance plasmid previously identified in other enteric bacteria. The increasing antibiotic resistance in S Typhi observed here adds urgency to the need for typhoid prevention measures

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. Methods The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. Findings Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. Interpretation Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI

Global monitoring of antimicrobial resistance based on metagenomics analyses of urban sewage

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a serious threat to global public health, but obtaining representative data on AMR for healthy human populations is difficult. Here, we use meta-genomic analysis of untreated sewage to characterize the bacterial resistome from 79 sites in 60 countries. We find systematic differences in abundance and diversity of AMR genes between Europe/North-America/Oceania and Africa/Asia/South-America. Antimicrobial use data and bacterial taxonomy only explains a minor part of the AMR variation that we observe. We find no evidence for cross-selection between antimicrobial classes, or for effect of air travel between sites. However, AMR gene abundance strongly correlates with socio-economic, health and environmental factors, which we use to predict AMR gene abundances in all countries in the world. Our findings suggest that global AMR gene diversity and abundance vary by region, and that improving sanitation and health could potentially limit the global burden of AMR. We propose metagenomic analysis of sewage as an ethically acceptable and economically feasible approach for continuous global surveillance and prediction of AMR.Peer reviewe

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

Background Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide.Methods A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study-a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital.Findings Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.85 [95% CI 2.58-5.75]; p<0.0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63.0% vs 82.7%; OR 0.35 [0.23-0.53]; p<0.0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer.Interpretation Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Correction:Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.Peer reviewe

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18 : a geospatial modelling study

Background More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.Methods We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km x 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2.1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.Findings Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205000 (95% uncertainty interval 147000-257000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.Interpretation Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019