Evaluation of the integrated Canadian crop yield forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape

Early warning information on crop yield and production are very crucial for both farmers and decision-makers. In this study, we assess the skill and the reliability of the Integrated Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (ICCYF), a regional crop yield forecasting tool, at different temporal (i.e. 1–3 months before harvest) and spatial (i.e. census agricultural region – CAR, provincial and national) scales across Canada. A distinct feature of the ICCYF is that it generates in-season yield forecasts well before the end of the growing season and provides a probability distribution of the forecasted yields. The ICCYF integrates climate, remote sensing derived vegetation indices, soil and crop information through a physical process-based soil water budget model and statistical algorithms. The model was evaluated against yield survey data of spring wheat, barley and canola during the 1987–2012 period. Our results showed that the ICCYF performance exhibited a strong spatial pattern at both CAR and provincial scales. Model performance was better from regions with a good coverage of climate stations and a high percentage of cropped area. On average, the model coefficient of determination at CAR level was 66%, 51% and 67%, for spring wheat, barley and canola, respectively. Skilful forecasts (i.e. model efficiency index & gt; 0) were achieved in 70% of the CARs for spring wheat and canola, and 43% for barley (low values observed in CAR with small harvested area). At the provincial scale, the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of the September forecasts ranged from 7% to 16%, 7% to 14%, and 6% to 14% for spring wheat, barley and canola, respectively. For forecasts at the national scale, MAPE values (i.e. 8%, 5% and 9% for the three respective crops) were considerably smaller than the corresponding historical coefficients of variation (i.e. 17%, 10% and 17% for the three crops). Overall, the ICCYF performed better for spring wheat than for canola and barley at all the three spatial scales. Skilful forecasts were achieved by mid-August, giving a lead time of about 1 month before harvest and about 3–4 months before the final release of official survey results. As such, the ICCYF could be used as a complementary tool for the traditional survey method, especially in areas where it is not practical to conduct such surveys

The Vehicle, Fall 2010

Table of ContentsPoetryFill Your Mouth with BerriesAaron Whitepage 1 RelationsJamie Van Allenpage 2 ExodusMegan Marie Olsonpage 4 Single FileRashelle McNairpage 7 The Aesthetic Value of the Moon, by CandlelightKathy Deckerpage 15 FactalsGabrielle Keigherpage 16 Day 5David Jacksonpage 17 Esta LloviendoHeather Gerrishpage 19 FacebrokeDarrin Gordonpage 23 5:08 pmNikki Riechertpage 24 Train TunnelsAshton Tembypage 34 VariationsKathy Deckerpage 35 WantRashelle McNairpage 36 FriendshipScott Maypage 37 Golden LandJacob Swansonpage 38 Last Night I DreamtAshton Tembypage 39 Smallest GestureScott Maypage 44 Somebody\u27s Hut in MexicoGinamarie Lobiancopage 45 Some Things You Just Can\u27t Tap Dance AroundClint Walkerpage 53 Prose Lamparus de DiosAaron Whitepage 8 Learning CurveScott Maypage 18 RocktonKatelyn Pfaffpage 20 Fatal DistractionSolomohn Ennispage 25 Noodle NonsenseGabrielle Keigherpage 41 AntarcticaMichael Payeapage 46 Special Features James K Johnson Award Winners: God is GraciousJohn Klyczekpage 57 To My Ever Growing ChestJennifer Hindespage 74 God\u27s ScapegoatJennifer Hindespage 76 Rape (Verb, Noun)Jennifer Hindespage 78 Featured Artist: Ashton Tembypage 81 Editor\u27s Pick: The Shooter by Patrick Hallpage 87 Chapbook 2010 Author:Kim Hunter-Perkinspage 114 About the Contributorspage 118 About the Editorspage 122https://thekeep.eiu.edu/vehicle/1092/thumbnail.jp

Tau Interaction with Tubulin and Microtubules: From Purified Proteins to Cells

International audienceMicrotubules (MTs) play an important role in many cellular processes and are dynamic structures regulated by an important network of microtubules-associated proteins, MAPs, such as Tau. Tau has been discovered as an essential factor for MTs formation in vitro, and its region implicated in binding to MTs has been identified. By contrast, the affinity, the stoichiometry, and the topology of Tau-MTs interaction remain controversial. Indeed, depending on the experiment conditions a wide range of values have been obtained. In this chapter, we focus on three biophysical methods, turbidimetry, cosedimentation assay, and Förster Resonance Energy Transfer to study Tau-tubulin interaction both in vitro and in cell. We highlight precautions that must be taken in order to avoid pitfalls and we detail the nature of the conclusions that can be drawn from these methods about Tau-tubulin interaction

Quantifying simulator discrepancy in discrete-time dynamical simulators

When making predictions with complex simulators it can be important to quantify the various sources of uncertainty. Errors in the structural specification of the simulator, for example due to missing processes or incorrect mathematical specification, can be a major source of uncertainty, but are often ignored. We introduce a methodology for inferring the discrepancy between the simulator and the system in discrete-time dynamical simulators. We assume a structural form for the discrepancy function, and show how to infer the maximum-likelihood parameter estimates using a particle filter embedded within a Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCEM) algorithm. We illustrate the method on a conceptual rainfall-runoff simulator (logSPM) used to model the Abercrombie catchment in Australia. We assess the simulator and discrepancy model on the basis of their predictive performance using proper scoring rules. This article has supplementary material online

Activated monocytes in peritumoral stroma of hepatocellular carcinoma foster immune privilege and disease progression through PD-L1

Macrophages (Mφ) are prominent components of solid tumors and exhibit distinct phenotypes in different microenvironments. We have recently found that tumors can alter the normal developmental process of Mφ to trigger transient activation of monocytes in peritumoral stroma. We showed that a fraction of monocytes/Mφ in peritumoral stroma, but not in cancer nests, expresses surface PD-L1 (also termed B7-H1) molecules in tumors from patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Monocytes activated by tumors strongly express PD-L1 proteins with kinetics similar to their activation status, and significant correlations were found between the levels of PD-L1+ and HLA-DRhigh on tumor-infiltrating monocytes. Autocrine tumor necrosis factor α and interleukin 10 released from activated monocytes stimulated monocyte expression of PD-L1. The PD-L1+ monocytes effectively suppressed tumor-specific T cell immunity and contributed to the growth of human tumors in vivo; the effect could be reversed by blocking PD-L1 on those monocytes. Moreover, we found that PD-L1 expression on tumor-infiltrating monocytes increased with disease progression, and the intensity of the protein was associated with high mortality and reduced survival in the HCC patients. Thus, expression of PD-L1 on activated monocytes/Mφ may represent a novel mechanism that links the proinflammatory response to immune tolerance in the tumor milieu

Search for the lepton-flavor-violating decays Bs0→e±μ∓ and B0→e±μ∓

A search for the lepton-flavor-violating decays Bs0→e±μ∓ and B0→e±μ∓ is performed with a data sample, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0  fb-1 of pp collisions at √s=7  TeV, collected by the LHCb experiment. The observed number of Bs0→e±μ∓ and B0→e±μ∓ candidates is consistent with background expectations. Upper limits on the branching fractions of both decays are determined to be B(Bs0→e±μ∓)101  TeV/c2 and MLQ(B0→e±μ∓)>126  TeV/c2 at 95% C.L., and are a factor of 2 higher than the previous bounds

Observation of the decay Bc→J/ψK+K−π+B_c \rightarrow J/\psi K^+ K^- \pi^+

The decay $B_c\rightarrow J/\psi K^+ K^- \pi^+$ is observed for the first time, using proton-proton collisions collected with the LHCb detector corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3fb$^{-1}$. A signal yield of $78\pm14$ decays is reported with a significance of 6.2 standard deviations. The ratio of the branching fraction of \B_c \rightarrow J/\psi K^+ K^- \pi^+ decays to that of $B_c \rightarrow J/\psi \pi^+$ decays is measured to be $0.53\pm 0.10\pm0.05$, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic.Comment: 18 pages, 2 figure

Observation of associated production of a ZZ boson with a DD meson in the~forward region

A search for associated production of a $Z$ boson with an open charm meson is presented using a data sample, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $1.0\,\mathrm{fb}^{-`}$ of proton--proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7\,TeV, collected by the LHCb experiment. %% Seven candidate events for associated production of a $Z$ boson with a $D^0$ meson and four candidate events for a $Z$ boson with a $D^+$ meson are observed with a combined significance of 5.1standard deviations. The production cross-sections in the forward region are measured to be $$\sigma_{Z\rightarrow\mu^+\mu^-\!,D^0} = 2.50\pm1.12\pm0.22pb$$ $$\sigma_{Z\rightarrow\mu^+\mu^-\!,D^+} = 0.44\pm0.23\pm0.03pb,$$ where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second systematic.Comment: 18 pages, 2 figure

Observations of Bºs→ψ(2S)η and Bº(s)→ψ(2S)π+π- decays

First observations of the B0s →ψ(2S)η, B0 →ψ(2S)π + π − and B0s →ψ(2S)π + π − decays are made using a dataset corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0 fb−1 collected by the LHCb experiment in proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of √ s = 7 TeV. The ratios of the branching fractions of each of the ψ(2S) modes with respect to the corresponding J/ψ decays are B(B0s →ψ(2S)η) ÷ B(B0s →J/ψη) = 0.83± 0.14 (stat)±0.12 (syst) ±0.02 (B), ; B(B0→ψ(2S)π + π − ) ÷ B(B0→J/ψπ + π − ) = 0.56± 0.07 (stat)±0.05 (syst)± 0.01 (B), ; B(B0s →ψ(2S)π + π − ) ÷ B(B0s →J/ψπ + π − ) = 0.34± 0.04 (stat)±0.03 (syst)± 0.01 (B), where the third uncertainty corresponds to the uncertainties of the dilepton branching fractions of the J/ψ and ψ(2S) meson decays

Measurements of the B+B^+, B0B^0, Bs0B_s^0 meson and Λb0\Lambda_b^0 baryon lifetimes

Measurements of $b$-hadron lifetimes are reported using $pp$ collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.0fb$^{-1}$, collected by the LHCb detector at a centre-of-mass energy of $7$Tev. Using the exclusive decays $B^+\to J/\psi K^+$, $B^0\to J/\psi K^*(892)^0$, $B^0\to J/\psi K^0_{\rm S}$, $\Lambda_b^0\to J/\psi \Lambda$ and $B^0_s\to J/\psi \phi$ the average decay times in these modes are measured to be $\tau_{B^+\to J/\psi K^+}$ = $1.637 \pm$ 0.004 $\pm$ 0.003 ps, $\tau_{B^0\to J/\psi K^*(892)^0}$ = $1.524 \pm$ 0.006 $\pm$ 0.004 ps, $\tau_{B^0\to J/\psi K^0_{\rm S}}$ = $1.499 \pm$ 0.013 $\pm$ 0.005 ps, $\tau_{\Lambda_b^0\to J/\psi \Lambda}$ = $1.415 \pm$ 0.027 $\pm$ 0.006 ps and $\tau_{B^0_s\to J/\psi \phi}$ = $1.480 \pm$ 0.011 $\pm$ 0.005 ps, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. These represent the most precise lifetime measurements in these decay modes. In addition, ratios of these lifetimes, and the ratio of the decay-width difference, $\Delta\Gamma_d$, to the average width, $\Gamma_d$, in the $B^0$ system, $\Delta \Gamma_d/\Gamma_d = -0.044 \pm 0.025 \pm 0.011$, are reported. All quantities are found to be consistent with Standard Model expectations.Comment: 28 pages, 4 figures. Updated reference