Claiming for a demologic approach to demographic change

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Two theoretical interpretations of the dissonance between fertility intentions and behaviour

In the paper we outline two possible theoretical interpretations for the inconsistency often observed between fertility intentions and fertility behaviour. We draw on socio-psychological models of human behaviour which emphasise the role of normative-affective factors on decision-making processes. The first interpretation is based on the observation that family and fertility choices are gradually shifting from a zone where behaviour is normative regulated to a zone of normative indifference, where mere rational decision-making based on cost-benefit considerations is at work. The dissonance between fertility choices and declared intentions depends on the fact that the former are based on rational considerations, while the latter are still constrained by a normative familistic philosophy. The second interpretation assumes the existence of an interposing mechanism in the sequence expectations-behaviour. These mechanisms, as anxiety and avoidance dispositions, filter the passage from individual value orientations in the affective sphere to their actual behaviour. We base our argument on two sets of information. First, we use a survey which allows us to construct empirical indicators of psychological dispositions connected to expectations related to family and fertility behaviours (Abacus 1996, Italy). Second, we analyse 54 non-structured interviews conducted in Northern Italy, which give a detailed picture of the hypothesised mechanisms and suggest new directions for research.

Cycles post-transitionnels et modèles proie-prédateur

Cet article examine la cohérence logique des modèles mathématiques utilisés dans l’analyse des fluctuations de la fécondité depuis la fin de la « transition démographique ». Deux grandes familles de modèles sont distinguées : ceux liés à ce qu’on peut appeler la « cinématique démographique », et parmi lesquels le modèle d’Easterlin prend une place importante; et ceux liés à la « dynamique » du système de reproduction, parmi lesquels émerge le modèle proie-prédateur de Volterra, dont les possibilités d’opérationalisation font l’objet d’une réflexion approfondie.This paper investigates the logical consistency of the mathematical models used in the analysis of fertility fluctuations since the end of demographic transition. Two main families of models may be distinguished: those related to demographic "cinematics", including the well known Easterlin model; and those related to the "dynamics" of the reproduction system, among which Volterra's prey-predator model takes a particular place. The possibilities of operationalizing the latter model are also discussed.Este artículo examina la coherencia lógica de los modelos matemáticos utilizados en el análisis de las fluctuaciones de la fecundidad a partir de la "transición demográfica". Dos grandes familias de modelos están distinguidas: los que están relacionados a lo que podemos llamar la cinématica demográfica y dentro de los cuales el modelo de Easterlin toma un lugar importante, y los que están relacionados a la dinámica del sistema de reproducción, dentro de los cuales surge el modelo presa-predator de Volterra cuyas posibilidades de puesta en marcha hacen el objeto de una profunda reflexión

The anthropological embedment of fertility change in Southern Europe

The year after the 1854 cholera epidemic Frederic Le Play published a century household model map that used a typology of the organizational models of the household based on two modern variants of the patriarchal ideal type. However a considerable overlap between Le Plays household model map and the regional total fertility rate map of central-southern Europe in the 1980s have been noted. This paper examines the overall structure of relationships involved in Le Plays typology and observes that both the stem-family and the unstable family area in southern Europe are marked by small close-knit networks of strong ties with kinship predominance. Vice versa the social support hinges upon a network of kin in the stem-family area upon an alliance among different kindred units in the unstable Mediterranean area. All this leads to formulating a hypothesis of a tripartite model for western Europe relationship models. Moreover several rough contributions to an etiological model are cited in which the existing diversity in regional fertility behavior is explained by basic persistent anthropological structures

Dietro ragionevoli scelte. Per capire i comportamenti dei giovani adulti italiani

Per quali motivi i giovani posticipano l'entrata nella vita adulta, rinviano l'uscita dalla casa dei genitori, la formazione di una coppia stabile, la nascita di un figlio? A questi interrogativi si risponde in genere enumerando le sfavorevoli contingenze materiali - disoccupazione, precarietà, bassi salari, mercato immobiliare ingessato - che nel nostro paese più che altrove, scoraggiano le giovani generazioni. Tuttavia, dietro tali ostacoli economici, nella formazione di scelte apparentemente ragionevoli, opera anche e sempre il filtro degli stati d'animo, capaci di accelerare o sospendere lo stesso processo di formazione delle scelte. Ma a loro volta gli stati d'animo di crisi sono innescati non da singole transitorie difficoltà, quanto piuttosto dal cronicizzarsi delle prospettive di precarietà: prospettive che accomunano oggi il paradigma del lavoro flessibile a quello della vita flessibile.- Indice #4- Introduzione. Consuntivo per una generazione #6- Cap.I Limiti delle spiegazioni «razionali» a senso unico #14- Cap.II Grandi contenitori (e tautologismi sistemici) #28- Cap.III Il colore delle cose #48- Cap.IV Gli ingredienti delle contingenze di crisi #64- Cap.V Strategie frontali #84- Cap.VI Strategie all’intorno #104- Cap.VII Reinnestare la frizione #116- Bibliografia #13

The Drosophila telomere-capping protein Verrocchio binds single-stranded DNA and protects telomeres from DNA damage response

Drosophila telomeres are sequence-independent structures maintained by transposition to chromosome ends of three specialized retroelements rather than by telomerase activity. Fly telomeres are protected by the terminin complex that includes the HOAP, HipHop, Moi and Ver proteins. These are fast evolving, non-conserved proteins that localize and function exclusively at telomeres, protecting them from fusion events. We have previously suggested that terminin is the functional analogue of shelterin, the multi-protein complex that protects human telomeres. Here, we use electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA) and atomic force microscopy (AFM) to show that Ver preferentially binds single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) with no sequence specificity. We also show that Moi and Ver form a complex in vivo. Although these two proteins are mutually dependent for their localization at telomeres, Moi neither binds ssDNA nor facilitates Ver binding to ssDNA. Consistent with these results, we found that Ver-depleted telomeres form RPA and γH2AX foci, like the human telomeres lacking the ssDNA-binding POT1 protein. Collectively, our findings suggest that Drosophila telomeres possess a ssDNA overhang like the other eukaryotes, and that the terminin complex is architecturally and functionally similar to shelterin

The Impact of Adherence to Screening Guidelines and of Diabetes Clinics Referral on Morbidity and Mortality in Diabetes

Despite the heightened awareness of diabetes as a major health problem, evidence on the impact of assistance and organizational factors, as well as of adherence to recommended care guidelines, on morbidity and mortality in diabetes is scanty. We identified diabetic residents in Torino, Italy, as of 1st January 2002, using multiple independent data sources. We collected data on several laboratory tests and specialist medical examinations to compare primary versus specialty care management of diabetes and the fulfillment of a quality-of-care indicator based on existing screening guidelines (GCI). Then, we performed regression analyses to identify associations of these factors with mortality and cardiovascular morbidity over a 4 year- follow-up. Patients with the lowest degree of quality of care (i.e. only cared for by primary care and with no fulfillment of GCI) had worse RRs for all-cause (1.72 [95% CI 1.57–1.89]), cardiovascular (1.74 [95% CI 1.50–2.01]) and cancer (1.35 [95% CI 1.14–1.61]) mortality, compared with those with the highest quality of care. They also showed increased RRs for incidence of major cardiovascular events up to 2.03 (95% CI 1.26–3.28) for lower extremity amputations. Receiving specialist care itself increased survival, but was far more effective when combined with the fulfillment of GCI. Throughout the whole set of analysis, implementation of guidelines emerged as a strong modifier of prognosis. We conclude that management of diabetic patients with a pathway based on both primary and specialist care is associated with a favorable impact on all-cause mortality and CV incidence, provided that guidelines are implemented

Cetuximab continuation after first progression in metastatic colorectal cancer (CAPRI-GOIM): A randomized phase II trial of FOLFOX plus cetuximab versus FOLFOX

Background: Cetuximab plus chemotherapy is a first-line treatment option in metastatic KRAS and NRAS wild-type colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. No data are currently available on continuing anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) therapy beyond progression. Patients and methods: We did this open-label, 1:1 randomized phase II trial at 25 hospitals in Italy to evaluate the efficacy of cetuximab plus 5-fluorouracil, folinic acid and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) as second-line treatment of KRAS exon 2 wild-type metastatic CRC patients treated in first line with 5-fluorouracil, folinic acid and irinotecan (FOLFIRI) plus cetuximab. Patients received FOLFOX plus cetuximab (arm A) or FOLFOX (arm B). Primary end point was progressionfree survival (PFS). Tumour tissues were assessed by next-generation sequencing (NGS). This report is the final analysis. Results: Between 1 February 2010 and 28 September 2014, 153 patients were randomized (74 in arm A and 79 in arm B). Median PFS was 6.4 [95% confidence interval (CI) 4.7-8.0] versus 4.5 months (95% CI 3.3-5.7); [hazard ratio (HR), 0.81; 95% CI 0.58-1.12; P = 0.19], respectively. NGS was performed in 117/153 (76.5%) cases; 66/117 patients (34 in arm A and 32 in arm B) had KRAS, NRAS, BRAF and PIK3CA wild-type tumours. For these patients, PFS was longer in the FOLFOX plus cetuximab arm [median 6.9 (95% CI 5.5-8.2) versus 5.3 months (95% CI 3.7-6.9); HR, 0.56 (95% CI 0.33-0.94); P = 0.025]. There was a trend in better overall survival: median 23.7 [(95% CI 19.4-28.0) versus 19.8 months (95% CI 14.9-24.7); HR, 0.57 (95% CI 0.32-1.02); P = 0.056]. Conclusions: Continuing cetuximab treatment in combination with chemotherapy is of potential therapeutic efficacy in molecularly selected patients and should be validated in randomized phase III trials

Search for vector-like T quarks decaying to top quarks and Higgs bosons in the all-hadronic channel using jet substructure

Peer reviewe

Search for massive resonances in dijet systems containing jets tagged as W or Z boson decays in pp collisions at √s=8 TeV

Peer reviewe