Forecasts of fog events in northern India dramatically improve when weather prediction models include irrigation effects

Dense wintertime fog regularly impacts Delhi, severely affecting road and rail transport, aviation and human health. Recent decades have seen an unexplained increase in fog events over northern India, coincident with a steep rise in wintertime irrigation associated with the introduction of double-cropping. Accurate fog forecasting is challenging due to a high sensitivity to numerous processes across many scales, and uncertainties in representing some of these in state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models. Here we show fog event simulations over northern India with and without irrigation, revealing that irrigation counteracts a common model dry bias, dramatically improving the simulation of fog. Evaluation against satellite products and surface measurements reveals a better spatial extent and temporal evolution of the simulated fog events. Increased use of irrigation over northern India in winter provides a plausible explanation for the observed upward trend in fog events, highlighting the critical need for optimisation of irrigation practices

Nitrogen Challenges and Opportunities for Agricultural and Environmental Science in India

In the last six decades, the consumption of reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the form of fertilizer in India has been growing rapidly, whilst the nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) of cropping systems has been decreasing. These trends have led to increasing environmental losses of Nr, threatening the quality of air, soils, and fresh waters, and thereby endangering climate-stability, ecosystems, and human-health. Since it has been suggested that the fertilizer consumption of India may double by 2050, there is an urgent need for scientific research to support better nitrogen management in Indian agriculture. In order to share knowledge and to develop a joint vision, experts from the UK and India came together for a conference and workshop on “Challenges and Opportunities for Agricultural Nitrogen Science in India.” The meeting concluded with three core messages: (1) Soil stewardship is essential and legumes need to be planted in rotation with cereals to increase nitrogen fixation in areas of limited Nr availability. Synthetic symbioses and plastidic nitrogen fixation are possibly disruptive technologies, but their potential and implications must be considered. (2) Genetic diversity of crops and new technologies need to be shared and exploited to reduce N losses and support productive, sustainable agriculture livelihoods. Móring et al. Nitrogen Challenges and Opportunities (3) The use of leaf color sensing shows great potential to reduce nitrogen fertilizer use (by 10–15%). This, together with the usage of urease inhibitors in neem-coated urea, and better management of manure, urine, and crop residues, could result in a 20–25% improvement in NUE of India by 2030

Environmental effects of ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change : UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2017

Peer reviewe

Transport of aerosols into the UTLS and their impact on the Asian monsoon region as seen in a global model simulation

An eight-member ensemble of ECHAM5-HAMMOZ simulations for a boreal summer season is analysed to study the transport of aerosols in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). The simulations show persistent maxima in black carbon, organic carbon, sulfate, and mineral dust aerosols within the anticyclone in the UTLS throughout the ASM (period from July to September), when convective activity over the Indian subcontinent is highest, indicating that boundary layer aerosol pollution is the source of this UTLS aerosol layer. The simulations identify deep convection and the associated heat-driven circulation over the southern flanks of the Himalayas as the dominant transport pathway of aerosols and water vapour into the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Comparison of model simulations with and without aerosols indicates that anthropogenic aerosols are central to the formation of this transport pathway. Aerosols act to increase cloud ice, water vapour, and temperature in the model UTLS. Evidence of ASM transport of aerosols into the stratosphere is also found, in agreement with aerosol extinction measurements from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II. As suggested by the observations, aerosols are transported into the Southern Hemisphere around the tropical tropopause by large-scale mixing processes. Aerosol-induced circulation changes also include a weakening of the main branch of the Hadley circulation and a reduction of monsoon precipitation over India

Operational Probabilistic Fog Prediction Based on Ensemble Forecast System: A Decision Support System for Fog

One of the well-known challenges of fog forecasting is the high spatio-temporal variability of fog. An ensemble forecast aims to capture this variability by representing the uncertainty in the initial/lateral boundary conditions (ICs/BCs) and model physics. The present study highlights a new operational Ensemble Forecast System (EFS) developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, to predict the fog over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) region using the visibility (Vis) diagnostic algorithm. The EFS framework comprises the WRF model with a 4 km horizontal resolution, initialized by 21 ICs/BCs. The advantages of probabilistic fog forecasting have been demonstrated by comparing control (CNTL) and ensemble-based fog forecasts. The forecast is verified using fog observations from the Indira Gandhi International (IGI) airport during the winter months of 2020–2021 and 2021–2022. The results show that with a probability threshold of 50%, the ensemble forecasts perform better than the CNTL forecasts. The skill scores of EFS are relatively promising, with a Hit Rate of 0.95 and a Critical Success Index of 0.55; additionally, the False Alarm Rate and Missing Rate are low, with values of 0.43 and 0.04, respectively. The EFS could correctly predict more fog events (37 out of 39) compared with the CNTL forecast (31 out of 39) and shows the potential skill. Furthermore, EFS has a substantially reduced error in predicting fog onset and dissipation (mean onset and dissipation error of 1 h each) compared to the CNTL forecasts

Quantifying the effect of air quality control measures during the 2010 Commonwealth Games at Delhi, India

In 2010, the XIX Commonwealth Games (CWG-2010) were held in India for the first time at Delhi and involved 71 commonwealth nations and dependencies with more than 6000 athletes participating in 272 events. This was the largest international multi-sport event to be staged in India and strict emission controls were imposed during the games in order to ensure improved air quality for the participating athletes as a significant portion of the population in Delhi is regularly exposed to elevated levels of pollution. The air quality control measures ranged from vehicular and traffic controls to relocation of factories and reduction of power plant emissions. In order to understand the effects of these policy induced control measures, a network of air quality and weather monitoring stations was set-up across different areas in Delhi under the Government of India's System of Air quality Forecasting And Research (SAFAR) project. Simultaneous measurements of aerosols, reactive trace gases (e.g. NOx, O3, CO) and meteorological parameters were made before, during and after CWG-2010. Contrary to expectations, the emission controls implemented were not sufficient to reduce the pollutants, instead in some cases, causing an increase. The measured pollutants regularly exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality limits over the games period. The reasons for this increase are attributed to an underestimation of the required control measures, which resulted in inadequate planning. The results indicate that any future air quality control measures need to be well planned and strictly imposed in order to improve the air quality in Delhi, which affects a large population and is deteriorating rapidly. Thus, the presence of systematic high resolution data and realistic emission inventories through networks such as SAFAR will be directly useful for the future

Operational Probabilistic Fog Prediction Based on Ensemble Forecast System: A Decision Support System for Fog

One of the well-known challenges of fog forecasting is the high spatio-temporal variability of fog. An ensemble forecast aims to capture this variability by representing the uncertainty in the initial/lateral boundary conditions (ICs/BCs) and model physics. The present study highlights a new operational Ensemble Forecast System (EFS) developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, to predict the fog over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) region using the visibility (Vis) diagnostic algorithm. The EFS framework comprises the WRF model with a 4 km horizontal resolution, initialized by 21 ICs/BCs. The advantages of probabilistic fog forecasting have been demonstrated by comparing control (CNTL) and ensemble-based fog forecasts. The forecast is verified using fog observations from the Indira Gandhi International (IGI) airport during the winter months of 2020–2021 and 2021–2022. The results show that with a probability threshold of 50%, the ensemble forecasts perform better than the CNTL forecasts. The skill scores of EFS are relatively promising, with a Hit Rate of 0.95 and a Critical Success Index of 0.55; additionally, the False Alarm Rate and Missing Rate are low, with values of 0.43 and 0.04, respectively. The EFS could correctly predict more fog events (37 out of 39) compared with the CNTL forecast (31 out of 39) and shows the potential skill. Furthermore, EFS has a substantially reduced error in predicting fog onset and dissipation (mean onset and dissipation error of 1 h each) compared to the CNTL forecasts

Large inter annual variation in air quality during the annual festival Diwali in an Indian megacity

A network of air quality and weather monitoring stations was established under the System of Air Quality Forecasting and Research (SAFAR) project in Delhi. We report observations of ozone (O3), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) before, during and after the Diwali in two consecutive years, i.e., November 2010 and October 2011. The Diwali days are characterised by large firework displays throughout India. The observations show that the background concentrations of particulate matter are between 5 and 10 times the permissible limits in Europe and the United States. During the Diwali-2010, the highest observed PM10 and PM2.5 mass concentration is as high as 2070 µg/m3 and 1620 μg/m3, respectively (24 hr mean), which was about 20 and 27 times to National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). For Diwali-2011, the increase in PM10 and PM2.5 mass concentrations was much less with their peaks of 600 and of 390 μg/m3 respectively, as compared to the background concentrations. Contrary to previous reports, firework display was not found to strongly influence the NOx, and O3 mixing ratios, with the increase within the observed variability in the background. CO mixing ratios showed an increase. We show that the large difference in 2010 and 2011 pollutant concentrations is controlled by weather parameters

Quantifying the effect of air quality control measures during the 2010 Commonwealth Games at Delhi, India

In 2010, the XIX Commonwealth Games (CWG-2010) were held in India for the first time at Delhi and involved 71 commonwealth nations and dependencies with more than 6000 athletes participating in 272 events. This was the largest international multi-sport event to be staged in India and strict emission controls were imposed during the games in order to ensure improved air quality for the participating athletes as a significant portion of the population in Delhi is regularly exposed to elevated levels of pollution. The air quality control measures ranged from vehicular and traffic controls to relocation of factories and reduction of power plant emissions. In order to understand the effects of these policy induced control measures, a network of air quality and weather monitoring stations was set-up across different areas in Delhi under the Government of India's System of Air quality Forecasting And Research (SAFAR) project. Simultaneous measurements of aerosols, reactive trace gases (e.g. NOx, O3, CO) and meteorological parameters were made before, during and after CWG-2010. Contrary to expectations, the emission controls implemented were not sufficient to reduce the pollutants, instead in some cases, causing an increase. The measured pollutants regularly exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality limits over the games period. The reasons for this increase are attributed to an underestimation of the required control measures, which resulted in inadequate planning. The results indicate that any future air quality control measures need to be well planned and strictly imposed in order to improve the air quality in Delhi, which affects a large population and is deteriorating rapidly. Thus, the presence of systematic high resolution data and realistic emission inventories through networks such as SAFAR will be directly useful for the future