Non-stationarity in GARCH models: A Bayesian analysis

First, the non-stationarity properties of the conditional variances in the GARCH(1,1) model are analysed using the concept of infinite persistence of shocks. Given a time sequence of probabilities for increasing/decreasing conditional variances, a theoretical formula for quasi-strict non-stationarity is defined. The resulting conditions for the GARCH(1,1) model are shown to differ from the weak stationarity conditions mainly used in the literature. Bayesian statistical analysis using Monte Carlo integration is applied to analyse both stationarity concepts for the conditional variances of the US 3-month treasury bill rate. Interest rates are known for their weakly non-stationary conditional variances but, using a quasi-strict stationarity measure, it is shown that the conditional variances are likely to be stationary. Second, the level of the treasury bill rate is analysed for non-stationarity using Bayesian unit root methods. The disturbances of the GARCH model for the treasury bill rate are t-distributed. It is shown that the unit root parameter is negatively correlated with the degrees-of-freedom parameter. Imposing normally distributed disturbances leads therefore to underestimation of the non-stationarity in the level of the treasury bill rate

Natural conjugate priors for the instrumental variables regression model applied to the Angrist-Krueger data

We propose a natural conjugate prior for the instrumental variables regression model. The prior is a natural conjugate one since the marginal prior and posterior of the structural parameter have the same functional expressions which directly reveal the update from prior to posterior. The Jeffreys prior results from a specific setting of the prior parameters and results in a marginal posterior of the structural parameter that has an identical functional form as the sampling density of the limited information maximum likelihood estimator. We construct informative priors for the Angrist-Krueger (1991) data and show that the marginal posterior of the return on education in the US coincides with the marginal posterior from the Southern region when we use the Jeffreys prior. This result occurs since the instruments are the strongest in the Southern region and the posterior using the Jeffreys prior, identical to maximum likelihood, focusses on the strongest available instruments. We construct informative priors for the other regions that make their posteriors of the return on education similar to that of the US and the Southern region. These priors show the amount of prior information needed to obtain comparable results for all regions

CP asymmetries in the supersymmetric trilepton signal at the LHC

In the CP-violating Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model, we study the production of a neutralino-chargino pair at the LHC. For their decays into three leptons, we analyze CP asymmetries which are sensitive to the CP phases of the neutralino and chargino sector. We present analytical formulas for the entire production and decay process, and identify the CP-violating contributions in the spin correlation terms. This allows us to define the optimal CP asymmetries. We present a detailed numerical analysis of the cross sections, branching ratios, and the CP observables. For light neutralinos, charginos, and squarks, the asymmetries can reach several 10%. We estimate the discovery potential for the LHC to observe CP violation in the trilepton channel.Comment: 39 pages, 8 figures, version to appear in EPJC, discussion(s) added, typo in (D.79), (D.118) corrected, new Fig. 7; The European Physical Journal C, Volume 72, Issue 3, 201

The evolution of cooperation and altruism--a general framework and a classification of models.

One of the enduring puzzles in biology and the social sciences is the origin and persistence of intraspecific cooperation and altruism in humans and other species. Hundreds of theoretical models have been proposed and there is much confusion about the relationship between these models. To clarify the situation, we developed a synthetic conceptual framework that delineates the conditions necessary for the evolution of altruism and cooperation. We show that at least one of the four following conditions needs to be fulfilled: direct benefits to the focal individual performing a cooperative act; direct or indirect information allowing a better than random guess about whether a given individual will behave cooperatively in repeated reciprocal interactions; preferential interactions between related individuals; and genetic correlation between genes coding for altruism and phenotypic traits that can be identified. When one or more of these conditions are met, altruism or cooperation can evolve if the cost-to-benefit ratio of altruistic and cooperative acts is greater than a threshold value. The cost-to-benefit ratio can be altered by coercion, punishment and policing which therefore act as mechanisms facilitating the evolution of altruism and cooperation. All the models proposed so far are explicitly or implicitly built on these general principles, allowing us to classify them into four general categories

Olfactomedin 4 serves as a marker for disease severity in pediatric respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection

Background: Respiratory viral infections follow an unpredictable clinical course in young children ranging from a common cold to respiratory failure. The transition from mild to severe disease occurs rapidly and is difficult to predict. The pathophysiology underlying disease severity has remained elusive. There is an urgent need to better understand the immune response in this disease to come up with biomarkers that may aid clinical decision making. Methods: In a prospective study, flow cytometric and genome-wide gene expression analyses were performed on blood samples of 26 children with a diagnosis of severe, moderate or mild Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) infection. Differentially expressed genes were validated using Q-PCR in a second

Likelihood Functions for Supersymmetric Observables in Frequentist Analyses of the CMSSM and NUHM1

On the basis of frequentist analyses of experimental constraints from electroweak precision data, g-2, B physics and cosmological data, we investigate the parameters of the constrained MSSM (CMSSM) with universal soft supersymmetry-breaking mass parameters, and a model with common non-universal Higgs masses (NUHM1). We present chi^2 likelihood functions for the masses of supersymmetric particles and Higgs bosons, as well as b to s gamma, b to mu mu and the spin-independent dark matter scattering cross section. In the CMSSM we find preferences for sparticle masses that are relatively light. In the NUHM1 the best-fit values for many sparticle masses are even slightly smaller, but with greater uncertainties. The likelihood functions for most sparticle masses are cut off sharply at small masses, in particular by the LEP Higgs mass constraint. Both in the CMSSM and the NUHM1, the coannihilation region is favoured over the focus-point region at about the 3-sigma level, largely but not exclusively because of g-2. Many sparticle masses are highly correlated in both the CMSSM and NUHM1, and most of the regions preferred at the 95% C.L. are accessible to early LHC running. Some slepton and chargino/neutralino masses should be in reach at the ILC. The masses of the heavier Higgs bosons should be accessible at the LHC and the ILC in portions of the preferred regions in the (M_A, tan beta) plane. In the CMSSM, the likelihood function for b to mu mu is peaked close to the Standard Model value, but much larger values are possible in the NUHM1. We find that values of the DM cross section > 10^{-10} pb are preferred in both the CMSSM and the NUHM1. We study the effects of dropping the g-2, b to s gamma, relic density and M_h constraints.Comment: 34 pages, 24 figure

Probing SUSY CP Violation in Two-Body Stop Decays at the LHC

We study CP asymmetries in two-body decays of top squarks into neutralinos and sleptons at the LHC. These asymmetries are used to probe the CP phases possibly present in the stop and neutralino sector of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model. Taking into account bounds from experimental electric dipole moment searches, we identify areas in the mSUGRA parameter space where CP asymmetries can be sizeable and discuss the feasibility of their observation at the LHC. As a result, potentially detectable CP asymmetries in stop decays at the LHC are found, motivating further detailed experimental studies for probing SUSY CP phases.Comment: 38 pages, 13 figures, error in Yukawa coupling corrected, revised benchmark scenario and figures, JHEP versio

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results

Jet size dependence of single jet suppression in lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s(NN)) = 2.76 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

Measurements of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions at the LHC provide direct sensitivity to the physics of jet quenching. In a sample of lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s) = 2.76 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of approximately 7 inverse microbarns, ATLAS has measured jets with a calorimeter over the pseudorapidity interval |eta| < 2.1 and over the transverse momentum range 38 < pT < 210 GeV. Jets were reconstructed using the anti-kt algorithm with values for the distance parameter that determines the nominal jet radius of R = 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The centrality dependence of the jet yield is characterized by the jet "central-to-peripheral ratio," Rcp. Jet production is found to be suppressed by approximately a factor of two in the 10% most central collisions relative to peripheral collisions. Rcp varies smoothly with centrality as characterized by the number of participating nucleons. The observed suppression is only weakly dependent on jet radius and transverse momentum. These results provide the first direct measurement of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions and complement previous measurements of dijet transverse energy imbalance at the LHC.Comment: 15 pages plus author list (30 pages total), 8 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Physics Letters B. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at http://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/HION-2011-02

Impact of the lockdown on acute stroke treatments during the first surge of the COVID-19 outbreak in the Netherlands

INTRODUCTION: We investigated the impact of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the resulting lockdown on reperfusion treatments and door-to-treatment times during the first surge in Dutch comprehensive stroke centers. Furthermore, we studied the association between COVID-19-status and treatment times. METHODS: We included all patients receiving reperfusion treatment in 17 Dutch stroke centers from May 11th, 2017, until May 11th, 2020. We collected baseline characteristics, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) at admission, onset-to-door time (ODT), door-to-needle time (DNT), door-to-groin time (DGT) and COVID-19-status at admission. Parameters during the lockdown (March 15th, 2020 until May 11th, 2020) were compared with those in the same period in 2019, and between groups stratified by COVID-19-status. We used nationwide data and extrapolated our findings to the increasing trend of EVT numbers since May 2017. RESULTS: A decline of 14% was seen in reperfusion treatments during lockdown, with a decline in both IVT and EVT delivery. DGT increased by 12 min (50 to 62 min, p-value of < 0.001). Furthermore, median NIHSS-scores were higher in COVID-19 - suspected or positive patients (7 to 11, p-value of 0.004), door-to-treatment times did not differ significantly when stratified for COVID-19-status. CONCLUSIONS: During the first surge of the COVID-19 pandemic, a decline in acute reperfusion treatments and a delay in DGT was seen, which indicates a target for attention. It also appeared that COVID-19-positive or -suspected patients had more severe neurologic symptoms, whereas their EVT-workflow was not affected. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12883-021-02539-4