Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland

This study utilizes the dynamic factor model of Giannone et al. (2008) in order to make now-/forecasts of GDP quarter-on-quarter growth rates in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the Swiss GDP. We find that the factor model offers a substantial improvement in forecast accuracy of GDP growth rates compared to a benchmark naive constant-growth model at all forecast horizons and at all data vintages. The largest forecast accuracy is achieved when GDP nowcasts for an actual quarter are made about three months ahead of the official data release. We also document that both business tendency surveys as well as stock market indices possess the largest informational content for GDP forecasting although their ranking depends on the underlying transformation of monthly indicators from which the common factors are extracted.Business tendency surveys, Forecasting, Nowcasting, Real-time data, Dynamic factor model

Root-targeted biotechnology to mediate hormonal signaling and improve crop stress tolerance

peer reviewe

Once-weekly cagrilintide for weight management in people with overweight and obesity: a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled and active-controlled, dose-finding phase 2 trial

BACKGROUND: Natural amylin is a pancreatic hormone that induces satiety. Cagrilintide is a long-acting amylin analogue under investigation for weight management. We assessed the dose–response relationship of cagrilintide regarding the effects on bodyweight, safety, and tolerability. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled and active-controlled, dose-finding phase 2 trial at 57 sites including hospitals, specialist clinics, and primary care centres in ten countries (Canada, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Japan, Poland, Serbia, South Africa, the UK, and the USA). Eligible participants were adults aged at least 18 years without diabetes, with a body-mass index of at least 30 kg/m^{2} or at least 27 kg/m^{2} with hypertension or dyslipidaemia. Participants were randomly assigned (6:1) to subcutaneous self-injections of once-weekly cagrilintide (0·3, 0·6, 1·2, 2·4, or 4·5 mg), once-daily liraglutide 3·0 mg, or volume-matched placebo (for six placebo groups). The trial had a 26-week treatment period, including a dose-escalation period of up to 6 weeks, and a 6-week follow-up period without treatment. Participants and investigators were masked to the assigned study treatment with respect to active versus pooled placebo treatment, but not to different active treatments. The primary endpoint was the percentage change in bodyweight from baseline to week 26, assessed in all randomly assigned participants according to the trial product estimand (assuming all participants were adherent to treatment) and to the treatment policy estimand (regardless of adherence to treatment). Safety was assessed in all participants who received at least one dose of randomised treatment. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03856047, and is closed to new participants. FINDINGS: Between March 1 and Aug 19, 2019, we randomly assigned 706 participants to cagrilintide 0·3–4·5 mg (100–102 per dose group), 99 to liraglutide 3·0 mg, and 101 to placebo. Permanent treatment discontinuation (n=73 [10%]) occurred similarly across treatment groups, mostly due to adverse events (n=30 [4%]). In total, 29 participants (4%) withdrew from the trial. According to the trial product estimand, mean percentage weight reductions from baseline were greater with all doses of cagrilintide (0·3–4·5 mg, 6·0%–10·8% [6·4–11·5 kg]) versus placebo (3·0% [3·3 kg]; estimated treatment difference range 3·0%–7·8%; p<0·001). Weight reductions were also greater with cagrilintide 4·5 mg versus liraglutide 3·0 mg (10·8% [11·5 kg] vs 9·0% [9·6 kg]; estimated treatment difference 1·8%, p=0·03). Similar weight loss reductions were observed with the treatment policy estimand. The most frequent adverse events were gastrointestinal disorders (eg, nausea, constipation, and diarrhoea) and administration-site reactions. More participants receiving cagrilintide 0·3–4·5 mg had gastrointestinal adverse events compared with placebo (41%–63% vs 32%), primarily nausea (20%–47% vs 18%). INTERPRETATION: Treatment with cagrilintide in people with overweight and obesity led to significant reductions in bodyweight and was well tolerated. The findings support the development of molecules with novel mechanisms of action for weight management. FUNDING: Novo Nordisk A/S

Day-to-day fasting glycaemic variability in DEVOTE: associations with severe hypoglycaemia and cardiovascular outcomes (DEVOTE 2)

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The Trial Comparing Cardiovascular Safety of Insulin Degludec vs Insulin Glargine in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes at High Risk of Cardiovascular Events (DEVOTE) was a double-blind, randomised, event-driven, treat-to-target prospective trial comparing the cardiovascular safety of insulin degludec with that of insulin glargine U100 (100 units/ml) in patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk of cardiovascular events. This paper reports a secondary analysis investigating associations of day-to-day fasting glycaemic variability (pre-breakfast self-measured blood glucose [SMBG]) with severe hypoglycaemia and cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: In DEVOTE, patients with type 2 diabetes were randomised to receive insulin degludec or insulin glargine U100 once daily. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of an adjudicated major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE). Adjudicated severe hypoglycaemia was the pre-specified secondary outcome. In this article, day-to-day fasting glycaemic variability was based on the standard deviation of the pre-breakfast SMBG measurements. The variability measure was calculated as follows. Each month, only the three pre-breakfast SMBG measurements recorded before contact with the site were used to determine a day-to-day fasting glycaemic variability measure for each patient. For each patient, the variance of the three log-transformed pre-breakfast SMBG measurements each month was determined. The standard deviation was determined as the square root of the mean of these monthly variances and was defined as day-to-day fasting glycaemic variability. The associations between day-to-day fasting glycaemic variability and severe hypoglycaemia, MACE and all-cause mortality were analysed for the pooled trial population with Cox proportional hazards models. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted, including adjustments for baseline characteristics and most recent HbA1c. RESULTS: Day-to-day fasting glycaemic variability was significantly associated with severe hypoglycaemia (HR 4.11, 95% CI 3.15, 5.35), MACE (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.12, 1.65) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.23, 2.03) before adjustments. The increased risks of severe hypoglycaemia, MACE and all-cause mortality translate into 2.7-, 1.2- and 1.4-fold risk, respectively, when a patient's day-to-day fasting glycaemic variability measure is doubled. The significant relationships of day-to-day fasting glycaemic variability with severe hypoglycaemia and all-cause mortality were maintained after adjustments. However, the significant association with MACE was not maintained following adjustment for baseline characteristics with either baseline HbA1c (HR 1.19, 95% CI 0.96, 1.47) or the most recent HbA1c measurement throughout the trial (HR 1.21, 95% CI 0.98, 1.49). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Higher day-to-day fasting glycaemic variability is associated with increased risks of severe hypoglycaemia and all-cause mortality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01959529

The genomic history of the Iberian Peninsula over the past 8000 years

We assembled genome-wide data from 271 ancient Iberians, of whom 176 are from the largely unsampled period after 2000 BCE, thereby providing a high-resolution time transect of the Iberian Peninsula.We document high genetic substructure between northwestern and southeastern hunter-gatherers before the spread of farming.We reveal sporadic contacts between Iberia and North Africa by ~2500 BCE and, by ~2000 BCE, the replacement of 40% of Iberia's ancestry and nearly 100% of its Y-chromosomes by people with Steppe ancestry.We show that, in the Iron Age, Steppe ancestry had spread not only into Indo-European-speaking regions but also into non-Indo-European-speaking ones, and we reveal that present-day Basques are best described as a typical Iron Age population without the admixture events that later affected the rest of Iberia. Additionally, we document how, beginning at least in the Roman period, the ancestry of the peninsula was transformed by gene flow from North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Agnostic Pathway/Gene Set Analysis of Genome-Wide Association Data Identifies Associations for Pancreatic Cancer

Background Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) identify associations of individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with cancer risk but usually only explain a fraction of the inherited variability. Pathway analysis of genetic variants is a powerful tool to identify networks of susceptibility genes. Methods We conducted a large agnostic pathway-based meta-analysis of GWAS data using the summary-based adaptive rank truncated product method to identify gene sets and pathways associated with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in 9040 cases and 12 496 controls. We performed expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis and functional annotation of the top SNPs in genes contributing to the top associated pathways and gene sets. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results We identified 14 pathways and gene sets associated with PDAC at a false discovery rate of less than 0.05. After Bonferroni correction (P Conclusion Our agnostic pathway and gene set analysis integrated with functional annotation and eQTL analysis provides insight into genes and pathways that may be biologically relevant for risk of PDAC, including those not previously identified.Peer reviewe

Genome-wide association study identifies multiple susceptibility loci for pancreatic cancer

We performed a multistage genome-wide association study including 7,683 individuals with pancreatic cancer and 14,397 controls of European descent. Four new loci reached genome-wide significance: rs6971499 at 7q32.3 (LINC-PINT, per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74-0.84, P = 3.0 x 10(-12)), rs7190458 at 16q23.1 (BCAR1/CTRB1/CTRB2, OR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.30-1.65, P = 1.1 x 10(-10)), rs9581943 at 13q12.2 (PDX1, OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.10-1.20, P = 2.4 x 10(-9)) and rs16986825 at 22q12.1 (ZNRF3, OR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.12-1.25, P = 1.2 x 10(-8)). We identified an independent signal in exon 2 of TERT at the established region 5p15.33 (rs2736098, OR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.76-0.85, P = 9.8 x 10(-14)). We also identified a locus at 8q24.21 (rs1561927, P = 1.3 x 10(-7)) that approached genome-wide significance located 455 kb telomeric of PVT1. Our study identified multiple new susceptibility alleles for pancreatic cancer that are worthy of follow-up studies